NBA ML dogs 3.28 & 29

[redbearde]

no time. driving today.

Bucks +272.44

I also have offers up for the following:

Jersey +206
Philly +144
Bullets +144

those would be pre-commission.

These are value bets. I'm not going to sit here and tell you I think the Bucks are the better team or that Jersey is better on the road than Indiana is at home. They're not. I do think Philly will exploit Phoenix's turnovers. And I think Washington can outlast an injury depleted Kings team.

Knicks are a joke.

Hornets face the Celtics, so no to that.

I'd be more inclined to lay chalk with ATL than take the bulls at all - disarray there.

Minnesota is another joke, and the Spurs are getting into post-season form.

Clips don't have a chance at Utah.

I can sympathize with a letdown spot for Charlotte, but Seattle really is bad enough to be dogged at home even to Charlotte. Not for me.

Grizz @ LALakers has as much chance as the Bobcats, and the moon turned blue already this week.

That's where I am today. GL gentlemen. If mrs.redbearde comes up with something, I'll post it later.

 

[The Farm]

BOL red

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Have fun driving...lol

GL dude.

 

[FRITO]

you can get the BUCKS +340 right now -
personally, i can't bet against 1 of the best road teams in the NBA (ORL)

good luck man !

 

[redbearde]

LOL...

yeah, good thing I got that early line.....

the others came in:

Jersey +201.88
Philly +141.12
Bullets +141.12

 

[redbearde]

hell, it's 365 at matchbook right now....

 

[doublem9]

GL red like the bullets and 76ers here

 

[redbearde]

if anyone's wondering....

Orlando is 3-15-2 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Orlando is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

this is including the last time they played in Milwaukee when the Bucks won 100-86.

New Jersey is 4-1 ATS & SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana

Nets have scored 124, 102, and 103 against the pacers this year. If Indiana scores 110+, then this'll be tough for the Nets, but I see a pretty decent likelihood of the Nets getting to 100 first, and I'll take Carter and RJ vs Danny Granger and Mike Fucking(this is officially part of his name) Dunleavy down the stretch toward the playoffs. This is when those vets really do put the hammer down.

...or I'm completely wrong.

 

[redbearde]

oh yeah..the Bullets are the better team, and I don't believe this stuff about the 76ers "playing above themselves" - that's what the Trailblazers were doing earlier this year - ....after winning the last many...

Regular Season

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="11%">Date</td> <td width="21%">Vs</td> <td width="18%">Score</td> <td width="27%">Type</td> <td width="13%">PHI Line</td> <td width="10%">O/U</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/26/08</td> <td> Chicago </td> <td> W 121-99</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -6</td> <td> O 200.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/24/08</td> <td> @ Boston </td> <td> W 95-90</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 9</td> <td> U 192</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/22/08</td> <td> New Jersey </td> <td> W 91-87</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -8.5</td> <td> U 201.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/21/08</td> <td> @ Orlando </td> <td> L 95-113</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 6</td> <td> O 205</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/19/08</td> <td> Denver </td> <td> W 115-113</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -3.5</td> <td> O 223</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/15/08</td> <td> San Antonio </td> <td> W 103-96</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 3.5</td> <td> O 177.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/14/08</td> <td> @ Chicago </td> <td> W 110-106</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 3.5</td> <td> O 199</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/12/08</td> <td> @ Detroit </td> <td> W 83-82</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 8</td> <td> U 191</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/10/08</td> <td> Boston </td> <td> L 86-100</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 6</td> <td> U 193</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/09/08</td> <td> @ Milwaukee </td> <td> W 119-97</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -3</td> <td> O 202.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/07/08</td> <td> Seattle </td> <td> W 117-83</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -11</td> <td> U 202.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/03/08</td> <td> @ L.A. Clippers </td> <td> W 106-80</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -4</td> <td> U 188.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 03/01/08</td> <td> @ Phoenix </td> <td> W 119-114</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 9.5</td> <td> O 212</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/29/08</td> <td> @ Golden State </td> <td> L 97-119</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 5.5</td> <td> P 216</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/27/08</td> <td> Orlando </td> <td> W 101-89</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 1</td> <td> U 202.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/23/08</td> <td> @ Miami </td> <td> W 101-96 (OT)</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 2</td> <td> O 193.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/22/08</td> <td> @ Orlando </td> <td> L 99-115</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L 7</td> <td> O 203</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/20/08</td> <td> New York </td> <td> W 124-84</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -6.5</td> <td> O 192.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/19/08</td> <td> @ Minnesota </td> <td> L 88-104</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> L -3.5</td> <td> O 187</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/13/08</td> <td> Memphis </td> <td> W 102-88</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -9.5</td> <td> U 196</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/11/08</td> <td> Dallas </td> <td> W 84-76</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 3</td> <td> U 187</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/09/08</td> <td> L.A. Clippers </td> <td> W 101-80</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -6.5</td> <td> U 193.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/07/08</td> <td> Miami </td> <td> W 101-84</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -9.5</td> <td> U 192.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/05/08</td> <td> Washington </td> <td> W 101-96</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 2</td> <td> O 189.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/04/08</td> <td> @ Atlanta </td> <td> L 91-96</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> P 5</td> <td> U 187.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 02/01/08</td> <td> Orlando </td> <td> L 106-108</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 4</td> <td> O 196</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 01/30/08</td> <td> Milwaukee </td> <td> W 112-69</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W -9</td> <td> U 185.5</td> </tr> <tr class="datarow"> <td> 01/26/08</td> <td> @ Charlotte </td> <td> W 103-96</td> <td> Regular Season</td> <td> W 6</td> <td> O 188.5</td></tr></tbody></table>

this is 21-7 by my count....I gotta roll with the 76ers' exploitation of the Suns recent tendency to commit 20+ turnovers.

 

[redbearde]

welp....looks like the Bullets saved my ass tonight. 1-3 and down 1.6 units with flatbetting.

THAT, my friends, is the magic of ML dogs. I sucked complete ass tonight, won 1, lost 3, and lost only 1.6 units. Had I done 1 and 3 at -110, then I lose 2.3 units.

so....just a bad day instead of a crushing murder...

and why the unholy ratfuck is Chris Mihm in the Lakers game?

 

[spockgato]

ah you give yourself the best chance to win . i like this style of betting .
low or plus vigs and plus money payout on dog winners .
sharp chalk picks plus an over/under or two .
you've got a solid , steady basis there to make some good money over time .
limiting losses .
i love the sound of that !
what does the money look like on gs/denver ? you think enough of
the warriors that you dont think they would pussy out like the mavericks did right ?
yeah me too .
mavs got holed up and excreted 35 points out of their tight asses in the 2nd half .
expect jackson to roughhouse his way in and get to the line .
83 % .
motherfucker might be ugly but he's got heart .
dallas fizzled and went out like a cheap 4th of july napkin that accidently went up in flames when it fell near a sparkler .
denver looks to own the rebounding edge and they are tough at home .
charlotte pull a trifecta did i infect ya ?
milwaukee good luck and the nets play well at home but they are new jersey .
detroit seems lackadaisacal but maybe big ben wakes them up .
plus they got drubbed like a week ago by cleveland .
lebron is a coverboy now and he returns to the place where he had that marvelously unbelievable game ,
that had me ripping tickets at the mgm .
game 5 ?
not afraid to succeed where you've succeeded before as he climbs the building .
motherfuckers a bad ass man and his momma slapped you in the eye
for disagreein her baby aint the best !
still if detroit cares and is motivated which despite recent play they should be then....
what's the number on that ? high ?
yeah me too and duy likes memphis .
a wild array of games on tap for sturday .
good luck redbearde .

 

[redbearde]

I think you might be onto something (rather than on something) with GSW. The Mavericks are a special case in sucking so badly they couldn't get high pressure water out of a hose.

Warriors at 275 right now...kinda doubt it stays there.

Charlotte definitely ought to be on a high, and no brandon roy is always tough for the Blazers...if the Kitties keep shooting as well as they have been, and they keep their focus:

"We're still trying (for the playoffs)," Felton said. "That's still our goal. It's possible some other teams lose and we slip in there. We are in the East."

they may well win several more games. I love that at 27-45 they have these delusions of playoff bball.

Big Ben's going to have to play in order to wake up the Pistons. Hell, Lebron is over 3:1 right now......love to get BAR's opinion on the stones tonight.

fuck the Bucks on the road. No chance I'm backing them.

so I have nothing yet, but I'm lookin at

Warriors 285
Bobcats 220
Lebrons 325

 

[redbearde]

Bobcats +225.4
Cavaliers +303.8
Warriors +272.44

 

[SportsNut]

GL Red . Hard to not like the value in Charlotte & Cle. I think Denver is playing to well to lose to GSW who has looked ah this week. They had that great 1st H vs LAL and almost blew it , pretty much did the same thing the next nite and blew it, then trailed Port at home by halftime w/o Roy before turning it on. Denver just steam rolling teams.....

 

[redbearde]

yeah, well, I bet on Milwaukee yesterday too.

heh.

 

[SportsNut]

Understandable though from your standpoint . I did take ORL 1st H because with Bogut' s absence and the regression of Yi I figured they would get destroyed down low on both ends . Being unable to stop ORL near the bucket and having to rely on outside shooting to score . Coupled with the fact MILW suddenly lost that nice HC value as a dog. Most of there recent games there have been ugly for them. Some incentive for ORL off a couple of losses playing in a place where they struggle. I mention that cause same logic here..


I think you made a great point on Monday in reference to the DEN / Memphis game and applied to DEN here. When I was talking about my like for Memphis. That being that there really isnt much difference bewteen winning SU and winning by enough to cover 8 or 9 points sort of rendering the points usesless. Memphis played well for a half and then DEN blew the doors off against them. Seemingly DEN repeated that vs Dallas blowing them out in the 2nd H . Even GSW started slow vs Portland only to blow them out badly 2nd H. Whether you realize it or not what you brought to my attention was the lack of value in point spreads at this time of the season. I loved Boston and played them every which was yesterday ignoring what looked like a big number and same for some other games like Utah ( Orl 1st H). Plays I may have shied away from earlier. I liked Memphis and only wish I could have played them on the ML yesterday because LAL is tired and shorthanded a bad combo. I digress...seems to be more value in the bigger numbers...less motivation for a team to win by 20+ and coast instead..

Anyway I think this year more then ever in my recent memory probably due to increased scoring the spread is becoming irrelevant say 9 points or less....

Which is why I dont like GSW here because DEN last few games they have just willed themselves to win. The 1st H ML line for GSW might have more value since they fell behind @ Tor , @Memphis and vs Dal if I recall correctly...

Just thought I share what I have observed...BOL:shake::cheers:

 

[brewer]

The 1st H ML line for GSW might have more value since they fell behind @ Tor , @Memphis and vs Dal if I recall correctly...

thats acutally why im on denver 1h. lol.

 

[Satyr]

Good stuff sir, GL

even if I am on the other side of your GSW bet. Just hope we don't both lose.

:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

I just need one....and it's not lookin good for the Cavs right now at halftime...

but down 16 looks better than 21.....

crazy. 13 of 41 and 21 of 41 field goals.....what a difference.

 

[SportsNut]

I just need one....and it's not lookin good for the Cavs right now at halftime...

but down 16 looks better than 21.....

crazy. 13 of 41 and 21 of 41 field goals.....what a difference.

Tell me about ! I had the over 93 and with 82 FG attempts I should be smilin! BOL on the rest:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

yeah, that's insane.

 

[redbearde]

thanks Bobcats...only needed one. I woulda liked for the Warriors to pull it out. I'm sorry for you guys who got hosed on the cover with that last second bucket the Warriors actually hit.

won 1, lost 2, made .2 units.

 

[cogenman]

thanks Bobcats...only needed one. I woulda liked for the Warriors to pull it out. I'm sorry for you guys who got hosed on the cover with that last second bucket the Warriors actually hit.

won 1, lost 2, made .2 units.

:cheers: ML dogs can be nice.