NBA ML Dogs 3.25

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 83-144, 46.56%, +21.17 units
Spreads:172-164-15, 49%, +2.86 units

Suns @ SacK

Suns off of beating all-fired shit out of the Kings the other night. The short of it is I lay 12.5 with them at home, there's no reason for me to not lay 6.5 in Sack.

Especially with the Kings off of a long road trip. I know they were just home 2 games ago, but it was a One Game Home Stand, and in my mind that doesn't really count. Look at this and Cringe:

03/08/2007 vs San Antonio L 100 - 93 W (8½) P (193)
03/11/2007 vs Denver L 113 - 101 L (-3) O (212)
03/13/2007 at Cleveland L 124 - 100 L (3) O (191½)
03/14/2007 at Charlotte L 111 - 108 L (-1½) O (209½)
03/16/2007 at Miami L 103 - 97 L (4½) O (196½)
03/17/2007 at Orlando W 95 - 83 W (6) U (203)
03/19/2007 at Atlanta L 99 - 76 L (-3½) U (200½)
03/21/2007 vs Minnesota L 95 - 89 L (-6½) U (200)
03/22/2007 at Phoenix L 118 - 100 L (15) O (216)

SU: 1-8
ATS: 2-7

of note for Sacramento recently:

Sacramento is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Sacramento is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Sacramento is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix

I think this one will be similarly buttfucking ugly as the last game. I realize this bucks the home and home split trend, but I think it's a warranted bucking this time.

Thomas and Miller are questionable for SacK. Artest is probable (duh).
Barbosa is also probable.

I honestly expect a DD win here. ...probably along the lines of 12 or 14. 115-101 Suns.

Suns -6.5 (-110) 2 units
 
suprised your not on gsw ml. its the last dog on the sunday card. its almost a guaranteed winner.
 
I loathe the Hawks ML chances.

I LOVE Chicago's chances to brutalize the Pacers.

No Rasheed Wallace for the Pistons at Milwaukee. That says Efficiency to me. Lindsey Hunter should be back. Earl Boykins has been aiming for this one to come back. The Stones should dominate the interior...Prince should be able to hold down Redd or Mo...It would be nice to see Rip hit a few FTs in a row. I'm thinking the Pistons will win, and it won't be a last second sort of game, but I'm not so sure they'll cover. I'm thinking they win by less than 10 and more than 4....so really there's no reasonable play for me to make here.

Portland and Minnesota. If there is significant dog here (Portland at 2:1 or better), I may have to give them some thought. I expect Portland at +4 or 5 and I'm not sure I'll bother at that level (+175ish, I think). Zach Randolph is expected to play, tho not start. Is this punishment for going to the strip club while on leave for his girlfriend's gramma's second husband's dog's funeral?

Cleveland should utterly demolish the Nuggets. That may turn into a rungame. Cavs should win either a rungame or a halfcourt (especially a halfcourt game)...again, no ML play. Probably no spread because I would think the line is higher than I'll tolerate. Camby is questionable. Any guesses on a line?

I'm giving Houston some serious thought tomorrow...line is higher than I'd like tho. Peja might just return here soon, and wouldn't that make life interesting for the rest of the Hornets' opponents.

GSW at the Lakers is a spot I like quite a lot for a ML play. Perhaps I'll hit that in the afternoon.
 
good stuff. i gotta go back and reupdate the trend on the last dog on the sunday card both on the spread and on the ML. its quite amazing. i will have it up in a thread soon.
 
since quite a few people read your thread if its okay im gonna put the trend in here. if not let me know and ill delete it.

the last dog on the sunday card in the NBA is 13-0 ATS, 10-3 SU since Dec 10th, 2006.

the play for tom is ...

GS +3.5 / Ml
 
Spurs @ Supersonics

Ray Allen is out. I expected Seattle to perform better even without him, but boy have they sucked fat donkeydick recently. Pounding Portland was their last good outing, and tho they did beat minny, well, that's minny. Who doesn't beat them? Well, okay...Sacramento. I reiterate....BFD.

Seattle recently:

03/07/2007 at Philadelphia L 92 - 89 P (3) U (193)
03/09/2007 at Boston L 118 - 103 L (-2½) O (195½)
03/11/2007 at Toronto L 120 - 119 W (6) O (204½)
03/13/2007 vs Detroit L 101 - 97 L (3½) O (190½)
03/17/2007 vs Golden State L 99 - 98 L (-4½) U (217½)
03/18/2007 at Portland W 95 - 77 W (4) U (196½)
03/21/2007 vs Washington L 108 - 106 L (-2) O (208)
03/23/2007 vs Minnesota W 85 - 82 W (-2½) U (194)

San Antonio recently:

02/13/2007 at New Jersey W 107 - 82 W (-9) O (180)
02/14/2007 at Detroit W 90 - 81 W (3½) U (180½)
02/20/2007 vs Denver W 95 - 80 W (-7) U (202)
02/21/2007 at Atlanta W 103 - 96 L (-8) O (181)
02/24/2007 vs Seattle W 102 - 71 W (-10) U (200½)
02/26/2007 vs Toronto W 107 - 91 W (-7½) O (188)
03/02/2007 vs Orlando W 98 - 74 W (-11½)U (185)
03/03/2007 at Houston W 97 - 74 W (-3½) U (176½)
03/05/2007 at LA Clippers W 88 - 74 W (-6½) U (173½)
03/06/2007 at Portland W 99 - 94 L (-7) O (179)
03/08/2007 at Sacramento W 100 - 93 L (-8½) P (193)
03/10/2007 vs New Jersey W 93 - 77 W (-11½) U (187½)
03/13/2007 vs LA Clippers W 93 - 84 L (-12½)P (177)
03/15/2007 at Milwaukee L 101 - 90 L (-7) O (190½)
03/17/2007 vs Boston L 91 - 85 L (-13) U (185½)
03/21/2007 vs Indiana W 90 - 72 W (-14½) U (183½)
03/23/2007 vs Detroit W 90 - 89 L (-6) O (175)

This is another team like MILK and Boston who you wouldn't think they'd lose to. So either the Spurs will shit the bed and lose, or the Sonics will fold up early and often. The key will be the Spurs hitting open jumpers, because of double and triple teaming Duncan works, then the Spurs shooters will HAVE to hit the jumpers. They've not been doing as well with that in the last week or so of games, and that concerns me, but with San Antonio's rebounding and defense (and Seattle's less than stellar D), I think they'll be able to win by 9 or 10...If they shoot well from the arc, it'll be a 20 pt win.

of note:
Seattle has the third worst field goal percentage against allowing 47.1

I honestly thought this line was a point or two low at -10 the last time they played in San Antonio. Now, with no Ray Allen, perhaps this line is another point shaved higher on the spurs.

So I don't think this is entirely out of line....though it is a smidge higher than I'd like, of course...

Spurs -7 (-110) 2 units

I'm seeing 7.5 everywhere now. Good Luck folks.
 
I have absolutely no problem with you posting any useful trends like that in my thread. :)

If you find any more, I'd love to see em.

:shake:
 
I do like Houston tomorrow. However, I would like to point out a couple things.

Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans

Here's the thing. Chris Paul is quick as a bad fuck. If he beats Rafer, and he WILL BEAT RAFER OFF THE DRIBBLE...then there's no way in firey hell that Yao can stop him inside. on the other end, as stupid as this may sound, Tyson Chandler is tall and long enough to be able to annoy Yao's shot. He's not used to that. Chandler could get SEVERAL blocks on Yao tomorrow. That little 10ft Yao lifter (it's not exactly a jumper, now, is it?) isn't going to be as absolute as usual. If T-mac isn't on fire, the Rockets may have some significant trouble beating the Hornets at all...much less by 5 or 6.

If this line keeps going up and gets stupid, I may have to play the Hornets.

Peja is currently doubtful to questionable, and it looks like Bobby Jackson is out for a week or so. If Peja plays, I'm not sure what I think about that. If he's hitting his shot, obviously it's good...but it's something of a crapshoot on what his shot will do.

haroom...
 
I like the SA bet.. with no ray allen.. i dont no where sonics are going to score from
GS looks pretty good.. they have been playing good ball.. and u no what i think they might even make the playoffs good luck man
 
thanks Mago...GL to you too.

as far as Seattle scoring, Wilcox or Collison could have a good game, Ridnour will likely get 10 or so, and Lewis can have 20...that still doesn't equal a cover versus the Spurs.

:shake:
 
Deke is day-to-day with a busted foot, and Tracy McGrady is Questionable today with an illness. He's a game-time decision.

I am SO wanting to play the Hornets right now....
 
Hornets +165 2 units
Hornets +4 (+104) 2 units

Will very likely be on the Warriors, but I'm waiting for the line to get silly - I'm pretty sure it will. There's a lot of "oh you shouldn't bet against the Lakers right now," and I want tog et a better line off that.
 
Good luck tonight Red, I like a lot of your picks, but can't figure out why would you like Bulls' chances to "brutalize" :D the Pacers?

I'm on the other side and love it. :shake:
 
Because I have much disrespect for the pacers; i'm in awe of their recent suckage (recent 2 home wins notwithstanding). I am in the minority.

We'll see how it goes, but I have no dog in that fight, so Good Luck!
 
I actually liked what they've done with the GSW trade, getting rid of two blabber mouths S-Jax and Sarunas Jasikevicius, and getting some team players, namely a guy I think will be a big player within a couple of years: Ike Diogu. Also Troy Murphy who can be used in various tactical formations, and an occasional sharp shooter in Dunleavy.

But apart from that they have a solid squad (compared with other Eastern teams that is), and should reach the playoffs. What I absolutely love here is the fact the Pacers were absolute rubbish for almost a month, and it's high time to turn the page now and connect a couple of wins.

I think they get it done tonight against the Bulls whose defensive performances have been quite sub par lately.


:shake: GL
 
a winner never chases and a chaser never wins





unless u have the sunday nite last game dog trend :)

gl bro
 
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