NBA ML dogs 3.22

[redbearde]

ML Dogs: 83-142, 36.89%, +25.17 units
Spreads: 169-163-15, 48.7%, +1.06 units

Suns -12.5 (-106.5) 2 units

I'll come back to that...or not. SacK is just REALLY really bad, and in a shitty spot.

Denver @ Chicago

Chicago is off 2 tough losses. Denver has won 8 of their last 11. Denver looks to me like they're getting it together, and while Chicago hasn't looked terrible, really, losing to the Grizz isn't exactly a vote of confidence. Since the little come to jesus meeting between Karl and Carmelo, he's been playing a lot better, and as long as Karl punches JR Smith in the nuts every time he takes a lousy 3pter to waste a possession, this game should go well (and JR should be sterile by the 2nd Q). My big question is just how many free rebounds and outlet passes they'll be giving up because of JR Smith taking those damned shots. Fortunately, Tyrus Thomas is even MORE impetuous, and he'll do his level best to run with the Nuggets...and if this turns into a rungame, the Nuggets absolutely have the edge there.

of note:
Denver is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central.
Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Denver is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

interestingly:
Road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Denver won by 4 as 2.5 pt faves last time they played (Nov 21 last year), so there isn't much line value in this one, but I smell a better than 50% chance (tho not much better) of a Nuggets win, and I like my risk to reward here. I would also sympathize with a spread play, but only insofar as I think Denver will win. .....and Denver +3 (+102) is currently available for $1000 at matchbook.

I don't like much on this card, so this is going to be it.

Nuggets +144ish 2 units

GL today gentlemen.

:cheers:

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Redbearde-Good luck tonight, I am with you on Denver, leaning to the Suns. Cash these tonight!
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[redbearde]

let's hope so, bro!

 

[Joe Public]

So funny you wrote up the Nuggets today, Red, as I looked at the schedule and thought, "why the hell are the Bulls on such a short line against the Nuggets of all teams."

I'm not going to play it, but I hope you're right, they win and you cash.

Good luck with them and the Suns.

 

[Satyr]

I like the pick Red, we're on the same boat here. :shake: :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

Red I've noticed you don't modify your avatar any more Too bad, as I enjoyed it

 

[redbearde]

So funny you wrote up the Nuggets today, Red, as I looked at the schedule and thought, "why the hell are the Bulls on such a short line against the Nuggets of all teams."

I'm not going to play it, but I hope you're right, they win and you cash.

Good luck with them and the Suns.

since I respect your thoughts, JP, I don't think that's very funny...where do you think this line should be? It was -2.5 at close at pinny in November...you think -5 chicago? More? I'd be all over that too....

 

[B.A.R.]

I was leaning Bulls last night...you and Satyr make excellent points...tough game..def take ML instead of points though Nugget backers

 

[redbearde]

I like the pick Red, we're on the same boat here. :shake: :cheers:

Good to know, bro! Let's win this one...

Red I've noticed you don't modify your avatar any more. Too bad, as I enjoyed it.

I would put in more pics of my kid, but I'm not giving a certain Dr any more stalking material. Besides, I haven't really had time to fiddle with it recently...

What direction should I go next? This one is very much like my wife's cat:

 

[redbearde]

I was leaning Bulls last night...you and Satyr make excellent points...tough game..def take ML instead of points though Nugget backers

I would very much like to know why you were leaning bulls......

 

[B.A.R.]

I gotta make a sandwich then will talk...

 

[redbearde]

okiedokie...

 

[redbearde]

I would use this one at covers if they would let me...

 

[B.A.R.]

lmao...they should make a special avatar for Joebren(phillycapper)

 

[B.A.R.]

Denver is playing good ball now...

They are still a crap defensive team though. It shows the sad state of the Nets that Denver won their first game of year scoring under 100 points on Tuesday..lol

Chicago is going thru the motions right now.

The question is whether Chicago comes with a plan to attack Denver?

They can if they vary their outside game with some attacking inside(both guards and bigs). Denver can be had easily. Crisp offensive teams beat them up.

I think its a really interesting game...Chicago's gameplan will tell much IMO...thats why I am on the fineline between which team I like now.

 

[redbearde]

sure, but when have the chicago boys bother going inside?

The best offense is the 18 ft jumper from Deng's hands...and they'll go for stretches of 6 or even 10 minutes without scoring sometimes...

course, if they're shooting well all night, there'll be no stopping them.

 

[redbearde]

lmao...they should make a special avatar for Joebren(phillycapper)

It should be a dead horse...

 

[B.A.R.]

No doubt..I am just saying that if CHI plays smart even they can get easier scores than they are accustomed to...

 

[B.A.R.]

lol..I saw your "buddy" oksoIBlaze24-7 got unboxed @ Covers...

That guy is prolly the premier Boxing handicapper I have come across on forums...wish I could get him over here to post boxing. He's actually been @ Covers under 2 names total longer than anyone I know...

 

[redbearde]

lol..I saw your "buddy" oksoIBlaze24-7 got unboxed @ Covers...

That guy is prolly the premier Boxing handicapper I have come across on forums...wish I could get him over here to post boxing. He's actually been @ Covers under 2 names total longer than anyone I know...

I dunno who he is...never really interacted with him. I just like to taunt people who get impatient about being let out or beg for answers to their questions...

 

[B.A.R.]

I dunno who he is...never really interacted with him. I just like to taunt people who get impatient about being let out or beg for answers to their questions...

It is fun..lol

Nah..him and liquid used to battle when he had the name $Jay$ back about 4 years ago...

Helluva boxing capper...he made me plenty of money over time in the fight game

 

[redbearde]

Lakers @ Grizzlies

Last time they played, the Grizz won a very high scoring game by 10 as 3pt dogs. And now they're 5pt dogs? WTF...? The Lakers haven't been playing well recently. Before beating Minny and Portland (and covering neither time), they were on a record-setting losing streak for Phil. Now I'm supposed to believe they should lay 5 on the road? I have trouble with that...

some interesting trends:

LA Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
LA Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Memphis
LA Lakers are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Memphis
LA Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
LA Lakers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Memphis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Memphis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Memphis is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Thu. games (I mention this because of the TNT factor)
Memphis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Memphis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

I think if they get into a running match, the Grizz will have a significant chance of winning. Hell, without a running match, the Grizz may have a significant chance. The Lakers totally collapsed in Denver 2H, remember?

I don't typically like playing shit teams against a team with a Kobe, because he could well compete with the Grizz by himself. But the Grizz do tend to play better at home, and this line strikes me as significantly high. If I could get just a little more, I'll be essentially forced into it.

Oh, and I would not play points. Grizz will likely either win or get blown out.

Right now I see:

Matchbook: +196
TheGreek: +180
Bookmaker: +185
wsex: +180
5dimes: hates loading the betpage :angry:

 

[redbearde]

5dimes: 195 on reduced juice.

This might get to an unignorable number eventually.

 

[Satyr]

Red I think Lakers win this one, but won't touch the spread. I hope the Grizz can do the job for you but I wouldn't play it myself. :shake:

 

[redbearde]

I haven't played the Grizz, and I want a bit more than what I'm seeing right now before I'll bother.

:shake:

I am, however, playing

Pistons +155 2 units

see BAR thread for explanation. I like the value here...might even go up some more...

 

[redbearde]

Pistons/Rockets Under 181.5 (-105) 2 units

I think we're looking at low 80s for both teams here. Just.....no OT....

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice late selections Red

 

[B.A.R.]

Detroit controls tempo on road....

won't be a high scoring affair like first meeting

 

[redbearde]

thanks BAR...I hope it works out!

 

[redbearde]

best right now is

Grizzlies +205 at 5dimes....still not pulling that trigger. Feeling less and less like it...

 

[redbearde]

detroit is up to +165 at 5dimes reduced juice.