NBA ML Dogs 3.20

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 81-139, 36.82%, +21.37 units
Spreads: 165-158-15, 48.82%, +3.66 units

tailed BAR and most everyone else to get a nice Hornets win. Hurray.

Nuggets +1 (+103) 1 unit
Nuggets pk (+108) 1 unit

Bottom line, I think Denver beats the Nets.

Rockets -9.5 (-113) 2 units

Pacers are weak as hell, and the Rockets are tough as nails.

That's the short version. Another way of putting it is that I'm a chalky square punkass again. I just need cakeoff to tell me they're suckerbets.

anyway...

Nuggets @ Nets

on January 27th, the Nuggets were -7 at home to the Nets, and they lost SU. Last week, Karl and Melo had a come to Jesus meeting, and since then the Nuggets have been playing VERY WELL. The Nets are relatively healthy again, but they still have no interior game. Okay, So Boki Nachbar can slam on someone occasionally. Let's see him do that to Nene. He'll end up below the hardwood.

Sure, the Nets COULD win, but in a shootout, unless VC hits 40 or VC and Kidd both get 30, I'm not all that scared of the Nugs loss.

of note:

Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is second in rebounds in the league at 43.8

New Jersey is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
New Jersey is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
New Jersey is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Jersey is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

I'm bucking trends here...
New Jersey is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
New Jersey is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
New Jersey is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

...or I could be completely wrong.
 
Also, if Minnesota didn't suck so profoundly, I would like the +12.5 against the Suns.

I most assuredly would NOT take the ML there.

I am giving serious thought to the Warriors, though. Since Baron came back they've been playing damned well. at 3:1, I really do like the chances. Thing is, it's about time for Utah to get a win, and back home after a shitass road trip strikes me as the time.

Home team has won 4 of the last 5, though, and it took some significant last minute play for the Warriors to get that last win at Seattle.
 
GL! But I like the Pacers both ATS and ML.

Pacers is 11-3 ATS on 2 days rest. And 10-5 SU on 2 days rest. They have some confidence going into this game. They snapped a 11 game losing streak by beating the Hawks by 23 points on Saturday. The Rockets are entering with a sort of blasé attitude. They have won 6 of 7, including a 50 point blowout win in Philadelphia on Sunday. This is also a look-ahead spot, as they face the Pistons on 3/22.
 
And this is also a TNT game. If there this any motivation for a multi-million dollar late twenty year old to play hard, it is playing on TV with millions viewing.
 
Hey, maybe they'll show up...and the Suns, well, when they DO have a lead late, they tend to slow it down and BEG for the backdoor moose. GL bro.
 
And this is also a TNT game. If there this any motivation for a multi-million dollar late twenty year old to play hard, it is playing on TV with millions viewing.

I hear ya. But I don't think beating the Hawks in Indiana to end an 11 game losing streak is a big win for the Pacers. More like...bout time.

I still think the team is in disarray, and I bet on the HAwks in the last Indy game.....

hehe. Good health on that one, bro.
 
I think your ATS %'s is off... shouldn't be it like 52% instead of 48%. Don't sell yourself short big guy
 
they are a risk with no reward. for me, I think it's a strike against.

it's all academic, anyway...i mean,
does it really matter?
 
As a college grad. in Finance and now professional banker... my expertise feels that it should not count as a strike... does an NFL team take a hit as severe a loss if they tie? No...

I'm just bored at work and it caught my eye... it doesn't matter... at all... just food for thought...

Denver tonight baby, make it rain.
 
Okay, which ones of you smartasses gave my thread a 1star and then a 5star rating. I mean...really. Does my thread warrant a rating at all? HAH.

BAR gives some good ideas about the Knicks...

I'll take a homedog at almost 4:1.

Knicks +390
Knicks +8.5 (-104) and (-110)...got what I could at 104...anyway, 2 units total.
 
oh, and regarding the percentage, in my mind it is wagers made divided by wagers won. If others do it another way, that's fine. =)
 
Bullets -3.5 (-101) 2 units

Portland doesn't just miss Randolph's scoring and rebounds...the offense flows through him more than Jack...This is going to be an EXTREMELY tough game for the Blazers without him. ...think the Celtics 30 games ago without pierce and wally.

way too damned many plays today, but I like them all quite a lot.

alas.
 
Speaking of Boston...get this.

Last night during the game, the Boston folks put up a graphic showing the Celtics record without scalabrine.

It was like 1-14...or something similarly terrible.

And the commentator was like, "oh yeah, we need him back!"

...........I burst into laughter. That was some hysterical shit. With their record, ANYONE missing 15 games is going to have a record that looks like that.

and Scalabrine? Oh yeah...the keystone of the Celtics archway...hehehe...
 
Good Lord...

Okafor out indefinitely...
Brezec to start (Cavs have 3 guys to pound him...)
May is doubtful
Knight and Harrington are still out....Cavs should obliterate them...sheesh...

OH!

And Daniel Gibson is going to play tonight...probable, anyway...
 
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