NBA ML dogs 3.2

[redbearde]

ML Dogs: 74-130, 36.27%, +16.21 units
Spreads: 141-134-13, 48.96%, +7.54 units

Grizz/76ers O204 (-110) ...good thing I got it early last night, eh?
Spurs -11.5 (-103)
Warriors +200
Pistons -3.5 (-107)
Jazz -2 (-102)
Rockets+128 (5dimes)
Rockets +2.5 (-102)
Bucks +5 (+103)
Bucks +200

I expected the spurs line to be more like 14. But then I guess that would have been silly. Since the week before the all star break, the Spurs have been playing the basketball we're more generally used to getting out of them. They hustle, they dive after loose balls, they get ALL the rebounds, they play smothering defense....and they're even shooting better (comes from playing good defense, really...)

That loss to the Magic during the rodeo trip really seemed to be the moment they got energized. Well, after losing to the Heat, anyway......but it was after that the current Spurs win streak got started, and it sure as hell isn't stopping tonight. I would be shocked if this game isn't a significant lead at half, but whatever the halftime score (even if it's 64-38), the Spurs will come blasting out of halftime...and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 30 pt lead at the end of 3. Jameer won't be able to handle tony, and tony ought to get 4 or 5 steals off him alone - who knows how many Ginobli will get...No one on the Magic will be able to contain TD. No one will be able to stop Manu.

This should get very very ugly. Only thing that would keep it close is if the Spurs (Finley, OLD FART, & Bowen) can't hit the outside shots....in that event, we should still see a 15-20 pt win, but it'll be rolling away in the 4th instead of a 30 pt lead cut to 20 in the 4th...

of note:
Orlando is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Orlando is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

recently historic, these two play and the Spurs win and the Magic cover, but this particular game I really expect the Spurs to seriously push in some magic shit. And the 10 game history, if you buy into that, is 5-5 ATS...

This strikes me as just One Of Those Games.

let's win this one, gentlemen...

 

[redbearde]

ATL @ Bullets. The Big 3 are back and now laying 7.5. Not sure how AntCwaronbertachi will play tonight, but I'm not keen on laying over a TD with them nor betting against them. Over 209 I might sympathize with, but I'm not that speculative right now.

MilK @ Raptors. Toronto -5. I HAVE NO IDEA. Especially with Bargnani being out with "personal issues", I don't know how the hell this game will go. If anyone likes MILK to win, then I'd love to hear it and why.

GSW @ Knicks. This is one of those Two Shit Team games. Now, I have enjoyed the Knicks this year, but no Lee, no Crawford, and a hurt Steph all hurt that team. Francis being hurt helps them out, but if Nate Robinson is still sick, then the depth is suddenly pretty weak compared to when the Knicks were winning semi-regularly.

A saving grace is that the Warriors are just as wounded, and this team is bad enough that the Knicks could get a win to rebound after actually losing ATS in Boston of all fucking places this year (that's some elite company to lose ATS in Boston...). Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes are questionable, Baron Davis was questionable or going to play, but now he's downgraded to expected to miss, and Josh Powell is questionable (who cares?).

Thing is, we know a shitload of points will be scored in this game, and we know both teams are limping.

of note:
Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Golden State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

yet:
Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New York
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New York

Getting the Warriors at 2:1 isn't a bad move with all the questions surrounding these teams right now. So I'm taking it. I would, of course, prefer GSW at home for this bet, but such is life......

Warriors +200

 

[redbearde]

Detroit @ Miami.

Last time they played (Nov 30th last year), Miami was a 3.5pt dog. With Dwayne Wade and Without Shaq. Wade went 5 of 23 in 45 minutes for 21 points. Sheed played 38 minutes and went 3-7 (2-4 from 3) for 8 points. Call me stupid, but for this game I was more concerned about Lindsey Hunter than Wallace. Wallace and Flip Murray are ?, and CWebb and Lindsey Hunter are probable. I'm hoping with the few days off, the Stones will be healed up a good bit...we'll see.

March is going to be an extremely tough month for the Stones (schedule is brutal), and they're going to have to win games like this in order to have a tolerable run through it.

anyway...I think this line is a tad soft with Wade being out. The Heat beating a lame Cleveland team and an injury ridden Washington team isn't terribly compelling to me, and most importantly in my mind...

Shaq will be taking all the extra Heat FTs tonight instead of D-Wade...and we KNOW there will be extra FTs.........

Pistons -3.5 (-107) 5dimes

 

[redbearde]

Utah @ Minny. I fucking hate this sort of number. ought to be a pk, but I want to play a 2pt fave. And then it moves to 2.5....I fucking hate that shit.

:angry:

of note:
Utah is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Utah is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is third last in the league in three points made with 4.3 per game.
Utah leads the league in rebounds allowed at 37.2.

The rebounding especially, I think, is extremely important to this matchup. Limit offensives, and Utah almost certainly wins by 6-12...

god I want to play this one...

 

[redbearde]

okay,

Jazz -2 (-102)

 

[redbearde]

Hornets @ Chicago. Don't like it. Should be more like -4 or -4.5, so I think the line is slgihtly high. Paul and the Hornets should be able to dominate the interior, especially if PJ Brown is out (he's questionable).

Both teams tend to win at home, and this game is Chicago......and even as a hometeam wins team, the Bulls actually won in Hornetland in December. I guess at -4 or perhaps even -4.5 I might have to think about playing the Bulls, but right now I just have no real love for this line at all...

:down:

 

[redbearde]

Phoenix hosting Pacers.

I'd love to play it, but it would be dumb. Phoenix has way too many injury questions, and the guys' minutes have been mounting. Nash rolled his ankle twice at philly, Marion's hand and thigh are hurting him, Kurt Thomas and Barbosa couldn't hit water from a boat, and remarkably, the Suns came fairly close to winning that game anyway...not unlike the pacers' collapse on the 27th.

Even if the Suns shoot well to begin with, they may very well let the Pacers back into it at the end. Pacers +10.5 may well be a Very Good Bet. Especially if Marion isn't playing...

But I'm not too keen on betting against the Suns at home...

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[redbearde]

what the fuck? most of the Lakers are on the injured list...so much sickness....

03/02/07 G Kobe Bryant Elbow is expected to start, but is not 100% healthy Friday vs Sacramento.
03/02/07 G Aaron McKie Respiratory is "?" Friday vs Sacramento.
03/02/07 C Andrew Bynum Illness is "?" Friday vs Sacramento.
03/02/07 C Kwame Brown Ankle missed last few games, upgraded to "?" Friday vs Sacramento.
03/01/07 F Maurice Evans Knee is "?" Friday vs Sacramento.
02/26/07 F Luke Walton Ankle missed last game, "?" Friday vs Sacramento
02/19/07 F Vladimir Radmanovic Shoulder is expected to miss 6-8 weeks.
11/11/06 C Chris Mihm Ankle is out indefinitely.

 

[redbearde]

Houston @ Denver. I don't think either team is playing particularly well right now, but that was with McGrady out...

Interestingly:
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Last time they played, Diawara did a good job somewhat containing T-mac...Tracy McGrady shot 9-for-25 and collected 24 points, six rebounds and 10 assists. Also, the line was -7.5...should be a pick this time, but Houston's getting points. shrug.

For whatever reason, and I can't identify it......the Nuggets just don't play well with AI and Melo paying at once. Steve Blake starts for AI? Well then they can win......AI starts and Steve's ass is on the bench...? They tend to lose. What's up with that?

Anyway, I have sympathy for a Rockets play here.

Rockets+128 (5dimes)
Rockets +2.5 (-102)

 

[redbearde]

thanks DuY!

GL to you, too, sir.

 

[Satyr]

Jeez man, I'm starting to believe we're think alike cappers . Every time I check your thread in the last few weeks I know I'm gonna see my plays .

Just about to post 'em. :cheers:

GL tonight red

 

[flounder101]

Never bet against the Suns at home or anywhere else for that matter.

Good luck with your card. Good write-ups, bro.

Just remember........

 

[redbearde]

thanks flounder. GL to you this eve, sir!

satyr, I hope you're doing better than I am this year, bro...

I'm tailing with this one, but I do like it...good thing I waited to get worse numbers, tho....

Bucks +5 (+103)
Bucks +200

 

[redbearde]

well, with a day like today, I certainly can't be upset about the 2 wagers I lost.....

ML dogs, 2-1... +2.26 units...
Spreads, 5-1... +damn near 4 units!

it's days like this that make suffering through days like wednesday worthwhile...

ML dogs: 76-131, 36.71%, +18.47 units
Spreads: 146-135-13, 49.66%, +11.48 units

hope you guys made some money today...

:cheers: