redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 80-138, 36.7%, +20.37 units
Spreads: 162-156-15, 48.65%, +2.98 units
Gentlemen, as stupid as it might sound, with the exception of the top 3 or 4 teams in the NBA (and sometimes including them), on Fridays it happens an enormous amount that HOME TEAMS pull off a win. I haven't run the numbers, and if I get really bored tomorrow I might, but if you see homedogs on Friday, then you've got to give them some thought.
I looked at this card when I saw some numbers come out earlier, and my first thought was to fucking ignore it and take the night off. I like a lot of that chalk to be precisely where it is. But given the propensity for teams to show up and give a shit at home on Fridays, I figured I'd take a gander at both the Bobcats and 76ers.
Clippers have sucked this year. BUT they've been much better recently covering their last 2 games...AT San Antonio, and then damned near BEATING the Rockets. Unfortunately they're still something like 10-20-1 ATS on the road, and a stunning 8-23 SU.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats have never beaten the Clippers, and tomorrow might be their best chance. Ever. Last time they met was Feb 26, and the Clips won 100-93 as 10pt faves. Now the Clips are at -1.5, and that's some reduced value for the Kitties...especially considering Charlotte's woes, it's a line that gives a bit of value to the Clippers. Perhaps it'll be eaten up by tomorrow, and I can get +135 or +140.
This will not be a time for timidity and taking the point. If you play this one, just play the ML. There won't be a win without a cover tomorrow.
Brevin Knight is questionable. If anyone sees news on him, I'd love to see it.
Clippers have Hart now, so even if Cassell is still out, they're not completely without a PG.
Sean May is back, and between him and Wallace, I'm hoping for some semblance of an inside game. Without it, Felton and Carroll are going to have to be lights out from the arc.
At the same time, they're more than capable of doing just that.
So I've got my eye on this one for tomorrow...
Spreads: 162-156-15, 48.65%, +2.98 units
Gentlemen, as stupid as it might sound, with the exception of the top 3 or 4 teams in the NBA (and sometimes including them), on Fridays it happens an enormous amount that HOME TEAMS pull off a win. I haven't run the numbers, and if I get really bored tomorrow I might, but if you see homedogs on Friday, then you've got to give them some thought.
I looked at this card when I saw some numbers come out earlier, and my first thought was to fucking ignore it and take the night off. I like a lot of that chalk to be precisely where it is. But given the propensity for teams to show up and give a shit at home on Fridays, I figured I'd take a gander at both the Bobcats and 76ers.
Clippers have sucked this year. BUT they've been much better recently covering their last 2 games...AT San Antonio, and then damned near BEATING the Rockets. Unfortunately they're still something like 10-20-1 ATS on the road, and a stunning 8-23 SU.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats have never beaten the Clippers, and tomorrow might be their best chance. Ever. Last time they met was Feb 26, and the Clips won 100-93 as 10pt faves. Now the Clips are at -1.5, and that's some reduced value for the Kitties...especially considering Charlotte's woes, it's a line that gives a bit of value to the Clippers. Perhaps it'll be eaten up by tomorrow, and I can get +135 or +140.
This will not be a time for timidity and taking the point. If you play this one, just play the ML. There won't be a win without a cover tomorrow.
Brevin Knight is questionable. If anyone sees news on him, I'd love to see it.
Clippers have Hart now, so even if Cassell is still out, they're not completely without a PG.
Sean May is back, and between him and Wallace, I'm hoping for some semblance of an inside game. Without it, Felton and Carroll are going to have to be lights out from the arc.
At the same time, they're more than capable of doing just that.
So I've got my eye on this one for tomorrow...
