redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 79-137, 36.57%, +20.07 units
Spreads: 160-154-14, 48.78%, +4.29 units
Spurs -12 (-110) 2 units at the Greek this afternoon
Minny -5 (-110) 2 units at bookmaker just now
For Minny, I have seen -5.5, -6, and -5 right now. I see -12.5 most places now for the Spurs.
For the Timberwolves...
They are not hot. They have lame-ankle Hassell. They've won 1 game of their last 6...covering once in their last 10! What could possibly make this team in absolute disarray look good? Well, nothing...or....as they are now known, the Pacers, who look to me to be in far more disarray.
The Pacers haven't won su OR ats for 9 games. They managed a total of 64 points at the Clippers. Their last win on the road was at MEMPHIS on February 3rd. NOTHING has ended within 4, and the vast majority of these games were DD or absolute shameful blowouts at home against bad road teams. Now they're a few games into not having Jermaine O'neal, and Marquis Daniels should be out for most of his week.
One never knows when Tinsley will decide to show up late to practice again....or he'll just be benched for attitude.
I think this is a pretty good description of this team right now:
Last time these two teams played, the line was -4.5 for the home Pacers, and they lost a low-scoring dogfight 78-71. Swing that, and we should perhaps see -2.5 for Minny at home, but O'Neal is a significant loss, and more importantly in my mind, these punks just cannot win on the road.
of note:
Indiana has the worst field goal percentage in the league with just 43.5.
And while Minnesota doesn't tend to rebound well, with the Pacers recent opposing FG%
Cavs: 48.7%
76ers: 49.3%
Utah: 41% (off night from3)
SacK: 48%
Clips: 44.3%
Suns: 52.6% (without Marion and Diaw)
Suns: 44.1% (with Marion and Diaw)
Sack: 45.6%
Raps: 56.2% (65% from 3pt)
avg: 47.75% - they're trying to make everyone look like the Suns.
rebounding shouldn't be a huge problem...also...why are the PAcers rebounds so high? Cus they miss so damned many shots...
vs Cavs: 40%
vs 76ers: 51.2% (remarkable!)
vs Utah: 37.7%
vs SacK: 48.8%
vs Clips: 35.7%
vs Suns: 38.8% (without Marion & Diaw)
vs Suns: 42.9% (with Marion and Diaw)
vs Sack: 38.2%
vs Raps: 38.6%
avg 41.2%....this is over 2 full pts below their league-worst average
The point of all this is that the Pacers are playing horrendous basketball right now. They're on a profoundly bad streak, and it is my considered belief that this is where the Twolves have a damned good shot at getting a solid win...albeit versus perhaps the worst looking "team-play" we've seen so far this year.
I write all this because I think I need to explain any bet laying significant chalk on the Twolves at irrational length...because on the surface it really looks like an irrational bet that takes on negative line value. But this Pacers team really is that bad. They manage to combine Grizzly road defense...with Grizzly on the road at Chicago offense...and they manage to do it with regularity.
It's atrocious, and I'll fade them (especially on the road) against damned near anyone.
Minny -5 (-110) 2 units.
Spreads: 160-154-14, 48.78%, +4.29 units
Spurs -12 (-110) 2 units at the Greek this afternoon
Minny -5 (-110) 2 units at bookmaker just now
For Minny, I have seen -5.5, -6, and -5 right now. I see -12.5 most places now for the Spurs.
For the Timberwolves...
They are not hot. They have lame-ankle Hassell. They've won 1 game of their last 6...covering once in their last 10! What could possibly make this team in absolute disarray look good? Well, nothing...or....as they are now known, the Pacers, who look to me to be in far more disarray.
The Pacers haven't won su OR ats for 9 games. They managed a total of 64 points at the Clippers. Their last win on the road was at MEMPHIS on February 3rd. NOTHING has ended within 4, and the vast majority of these games were DD or absolute shameful blowouts at home against bad road teams. Now they're a few games into not having Jermaine O'neal, and Marquis Daniels should be out for most of his week.
One never knows when Tinsley will decide to show up late to practice again....or he'll just be benched for attitude.
I think this is a pretty good description of this team right now:
Last time these two teams played, the line was -4.5 for the home Pacers, and they lost a low-scoring dogfight 78-71. Swing that, and we should perhaps see -2.5 for Minny at home, but O'Neal is a significant loss, and more importantly in my mind, these punks just cannot win on the road.
of note:
Indiana has the worst field goal percentage in the league with just 43.5.
And while Minnesota doesn't tend to rebound well, with the Pacers recent opposing FG%
Cavs: 48.7%
76ers: 49.3%
Utah: 41% (off night from3)
SacK: 48%
Clips: 44.3%
Suns: 52.6% (without Marion and Diaw)
Suns: 44.1% (with Marion and Diaw)
Sack: 45.6%
Raps: 56.2% (65% from 3pt)
avg: 47.75% - they're trying to make everyone look like the Suns.
rebounding shouldn't be a huge problem...also...why are the PAcers rebounds so high? Cus they miss so damned many shots...
vs Cavs: 40%
vs 76ers: 51.2% (remarkable!)
vs Utah: 37.7%
vs SacK: 48.8%
vs Clips: 35.7%
vs Suns: 38.8% (without Marion & Diaw)
vs Suns: 42.9% (with Marion and Diaw)
vs Sack: 38.2%
vs Raps: 38.6%
avg 41.2%....this is over 2 full pts below their league-worst average
The point of all this is that the Pacers are playing horrendous basketball right now. They're on a profoundly bad streak, and it is my considered belief that this is where the Twolves have a damned good shot at getting a solid win...albeit versus perhaps the worst looking "team-play" we've seen so far this year.
I write all this because I think I need to explain any bet laying significant chalk on the Twolves at irrational length...because on the surface it really looks like an irrational bet that takes on negative line value. But this Pacers team really is that bad. They manage to combine Grizzly road defense...with Grizzly on the road at Chicago offense...and they manage to do it with regularity.
It's atrocious, and I'll fade them (especially on the road) against damned near anyone.
Minny -5 (-110) 2 units.
.
