redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 78-136, 36.45%, +18.67 units
Spreads: 159-153-14, 48.77%, +4.42 units
Some interesting things bouncing around my head for today...
First off, I love the Mavericks tonight.....if Baron doesn't play. If he does, it's a crapshoot all around, and if you feel optimistic, a ML play on the Warriors may be warranted. Do understand though, Davis might AT ANY POINT decide he has "stiffness in his knee" and be to busy getting felt up by the trainers to get triple-double on the fucking Trailblazers.
So if anyone gets news of Baron Davis's status, I'd love to hear it.
Also, after last night's antics, there's a real possibility of Stephen Jackson being suspended. One doesn't throw the bball at the ref in frustration and have nothing happen to him.
Most of the starters on both teams played under 30 minutes last night. Howard played 35 to make sure they anally raped the lakers a little longer than necessary...but most everyone should be pretty fresh tonight...and in the Warriors' case, you would think they'd be motivated after last night's debacle.
As far as an actual ML play, I'm liking the Rockets. If T-Mac is hitting some of those shitty "Oh, I have the ball...I'll shoot it!" moments (he was 9 for 26 last time they met), then they will likely compete, but they'll have to play good defense - meaning they will HAVE to get rebounds off of every Phoenix miss.....cus the Suns will hit their shots.
Rafer Alston thinks he's better than he is, and he'll have to commit a few less turnovers tonight. One possibility is that the Suns come out flat. Okay, now that you've finished laughing, in an up and down run game, the Suns will win, but in a halfcourt game if the Rockets get back on defense every damned time and limit the outlet to fast breaks......then this Rockets team can very well beat the Suns.
So I am considering the Rockets at 2.5:1 or better. Best I see so far is 240 at wsex, and I'm not hitting that quite yet. I do not support a Spread play at this number. A tie game with 1 minute left leaves PLENTY of time for Tmac to miss a few from the top of the key and for Nash to hit FTs to extend any Suns lead to 7.
Toronto/Milwaukee is a classic tossup game, in my mind.
road team has won and covered the last two meetings, and Toronto is up 2-1 (ATS & SU) on the series this season. Both teams are 2-3 SU last 5, but Toronto has won their last 2.
Toronto is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home
for whatever that is worth to you. I would love to have 2:1 for this, but I won't get it. Best I'm looking at is +170 at thegreek. Last 10, the series is split 5-5, and with the Bucks recent meltdown, they may well not be in the best of mindsets right now. And as long as they give up their average FG%(2nd worst) against of 47.8%....or likely better.
I have no wagers yet. May not make any...
Spreads: 159-153-14, 48.77%, +4.42 units
Some interesting things bouncing around my head for today...
First off, I love the Mavericks tonight.....if Baron doesn't play. If he does, it's a crapshoot all around, and if you feel optimistic, a ML play on the Warriors may be warranted. Do understand though, Davis might AT ANY POINT decide he has "stiffness in his knee" and be to busy getting felt up by the trainers to get triple-double on the fucking Trailblazers.
So if anyone gets news of Baron Davis's status, I'd love to hear it.
Also, after last night's antics, there's a real possibility of Stephen Jackson being suspended. One doesn't throw the bball at the ref in frustration and have nothing happen to him.
Most of the starters on both teams played under 30 minutes last night. Howard played 35 to make sure they anally raped the lakers a little longer than necessary...but most everyone should be pretty fresh tonight...and in the Warriors' case, you would think they'd be motivated after last night's debacle.
As far as an actual ML play, I'm liking the Rockets. If T-Mac is hitting some of those shitty "Oh, I have the ball...I'll shoot it!" moments (he was 9 for 26 last time they met), then they will likely compete, but they'll have to play good defense - meaning they will HAVE to get rebounds off of every Phoenix miss.....cus the Suns will hit their shots.
Rafer Alston thinks he's better than he is, and he'll have to commit a few less turnovers tonight. One possibility is that the Suns come out flat. Okay, now that you've finished laughing, in an up and down run game, the Suns will win, but in a halfcourt game if the Rockets get back on defense every damned time and limit the outlet to fast breaks......then this Rockets team can very well beat the Suns.
So I am considering the Rockets at 2.5:1 or better. Best I see so far is 240 at wsex, and I'm not hitting that quite yet. I do not support a Spread play at this number. A tie game with 1 minute left leaves PLENTY of time for Tmac to miss a few from the top of the key and for Nash to hit FTs to extend any Suns lead to 7.
Toronto/Milwaukee is a classic tossup game, in my mind.
road team has won and covered the last two meetings, and Toronto is up 2-1 (ATS & SU) on the series this season. Both teams are 2-3 SU last 5, but Toronto has won their last 2.
Toronto is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home
for whatever that is worth to you. I would love to have 2:1 for this, but I won't get it. Best I'm looking at is +170 at thegreek. Last 10, the series is split 5-5, and with the Bucks recent meltdown, they may well not be in the best of mindsets right now. And as long as they give up their average FG%(2nd worst) against of 47.8%....or likely better.
I have no wagers yet. May not make any...
