NBA ML dogs 3.11

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 78-136, 36.45%, +18.67 units
Spreads: 157-151-14, 48.76%, +4.58 units

Rockets -8.5 (-110) 2 units
Mavericks -6.5 (-110) 2 units
Heat -4.5 (-102) 2 units
Warriors +1.5 (-102) 2 units

Good thing I got that 8.5 this afternoon when I could get 8 right now.

:angry:

If it's lower tomorrow at noon when money starts hitting matchbook I'm going to feel like this.

At any rate, the western teams are all feeling pressure to win every game. I'm less thrilled with my mavs bet because every damned time I do, they manage to win by a whole point or two...

but hey, I think it's a good spot with a depleted Lakers squad against an absolutely stacked and packed Mavs squad.

Wouldn't mind seeing kobe suspended for that elbow, too.

This is the Lakers first game home off a long tough countrywide road trip , and they've been unable to win or cover against anyone other than phoenix (who has been GIVING AWAY ATS covers recently) in the last 5 games. Check out the last few weeks for the Lakers:

02/08/2007 at Detroit L 93 - 78 L (4½) U (196)
02/09/2007 at Toronto L 96 - 92 P (4) U (205½)
02/11/2007 at Cleveland L 99 - 90 L (3½) U (193)
02/13/2007 vs New York L 107 - 106 L (-7½) O (203)
02/15/2007 vs Cleveland L 114 - 108 L (-7½) O (196)
02/21/2007 vs Portland L 112 - 108 L (-10½)O (198)
02/23/2007 vs Boston W 122 - 96 W (-8) O (209)
02/25/2007 at Golden State W 102 - 85 W (-2½) U (220½)
02/26/2007 at Utah W 102 - 94 W (5) U (206)
03/02/2007 vs Sacramento L 116 - 108 L (-7½) O (211½)
03/04/2007 at Phoenix L 99 - 94 W (9½) U (220½)
03/06/2007 at Minnesota L 117 - 107 L (-1½) O (196½)
03/07/2007 at Milwaukee L 110 - 90 L (9) U (201½)
03/09/2007 at Philadelphia L 108 - 92 L (-1½) O (193½)
03/11/2007 vs Dallas N/A
03/15/2007 at Denver N/A

Sure, they have a few days before Denver, but I have got to believe this is one they penciled in as a loss with all their weariness and injuries...and the Mavs' domination. They just want that day or so off - hell, they need it to get healthy, and they probably need it psychologically too.

Anyway, I'm liking this spot a lot.

Mavs -6.5 (-110) 2 units

 

[redbearde]

It's rare that so many recent performance trends are this lopsided...

Orlando is so bad:
Orlando is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Orlando is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Orlando is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Orlando is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Orlando is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
Orlando is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston

and Houston (spurs aside) has been kicking serious ass recently. (I don't count the Cavs loss - their clock op cheated). In February when these two last met, the Rockets won and covered as short chalk IN ORLANDO in between losses to the Hawks and Celtics. So even when the Rockets are tired and pissing away wins to Atlanta and losing to the Celtics At Home, they manage to beat Orlando.

Anyway, I'm a big believer in the benefits of Yao. This team should be crushing with the defense, and I'll be surprised if there isn't a DD win.

Rockets -8.5 (-110) 2 units

 

[redbearde]

on merely a glance, the following look like they might have value tomorrow...

Seattle
Boston
NOT THE BULLETS - they will lose. I think a LOT....
Clippers if you're a significant gambling man...

 

[CincyWillie]

I like the Rockets more than I like the Mavs and the Rockets are the ones that dropped a hook....

 

[Austintx_05]

Clippers if you're a significant gambling man...

so true

 

[redbearde]

Now the Warriors look good. 1.5....have I missed something? A GSW player like Davis not in? I can't find anything like that...

So GSW is looking sweet to me at +1.5...May take some ML as well if the number gets within "bothering" level...

First off, IndianCowboy has a nice writeup on why this team is looking damned good for this one. A big win at Detroit started this little run of wins, and Baron Davis being back really makes this a team to be feared. Pietrus may still be out with the flu, but this team has so much depth now that they're healthy that the loss of pietrus is just not that big of a problem - another talented body simply replaces him.

Portland's only recent win was against the kitties on March 1st. And Charlotte just laid over and died for that one. The Warriors won't.

of recent note:
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Over the last 10, GSW is 7-3 SU & ATS.

Last time they played (November 3rd), GSW won and covered at home as 9.5pt faves. Now we're getting 1.5pts in their favor? Huge big beautiful point value here.

Portland also hasn't played since the 6th when they let the Spurs take back a late victory after holding them down all game - this was the best the Blazers can play, and they still managed to lose (they really did play a great game). Perhaps all the time off will help them be flat and the Warriors can spring out to a 40 pt halftime lead....

Warriors +1.5 (-102) 2 units

 

[redbearde]

Turkoglu is apparently probable for the Magic tonight.

Bonzi Wells is still out.

for what it's worth.

 

[V-TEC]

good luck

 

[redbearde]

Thanks. And GL to you!

 

[Satyr]

Good luck Red. :shake:

 

[redbearde]

Thanks Satyr.

Gomes and West are doubtful again. No Celtics bet for me.

Missed out on Seattle. Not quite over yet, but Seattle's up and looking okay...

I am not taking the Clippers...and I just cannot seem to bring myself to take the Heat even tho the line has dropped a bit.

 

[redbearde]

some things to consider with the Bullets at the Heat:
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 3-15-3 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Miami
Washington is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games when playing Miami
Washington is 3-6-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Miami
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami

and of course Miami has been remarkable...
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

last 10 between these two, the Heat won 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS.

And Miami has still been beating up on people without Wade and Kapono.
Shaq has been incredible. Still, the Force is telling me that as soon as I bet on them, they'll fall apart without Wade.

opinions?

 

[redbearde]

One interesting aspect of this one is that the Heat are now just behind the Bullets in the East. If they win tonight, they'll only be a game back...

Miami 20-10 at home, Bullets 10-18 on the road.

This is one of those that I'm talking myself into...

 

[redbearde]

Shaq is sounding damned confident...and they have been looking good.

Link

Heat and O'Neal hitting stride at same time

By TIM REYNOLDS, AP Sports Writer
March 10, 2007

MIAMI (AP) -- Shaquille O'Neal tapped a massive finger on the side of his shaved head, then explained the biology behind his recent resurgence.

Did it with a straight face, too.

"I'm on a mission. And I know the older I get, I may lose a step or two, but it's all up in the medulla oblongata," O'Neal said, using the medical term for the base of one's brain. "I've got a lot up there. I've got a lot of knowledge ... in this medulla oblongata."

He might be on to something.

Part of the medulla oblongata's job is controlling breathing, and thanks largely to O'Neal's play of late, the defending NBA champion Miami Heat are doing that a bit easier.

O'Neal has averaged 24.8 points and 10.4 rebounds on nearly 68 percent shooting during Miami's current five-game winning streak, including a season-best 32 points Friday in a 105-91 Heat win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It's all part of a dramatic turnaround by Miami, which was in danger of not making the playoffs a couple of weeks ago and now -- even without injured guard Dwyane Wade -- is chasing home-court advantage.

"He was aggressive. He was explosive. He was dominant," Minnesota forward Kevin Garnett said after his Timberwolves simply couldn't stop O'Neal on Friday, when Miami won its 11th straight at home and moved closer to Washington in the Southeast Division race.

O'Neal missed all but 13 games before the All-Star break while recovering from surgery to repair torn knee cartilage, and his pre-break numbers were dismal: 13.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 52.1 percent shooting.

Simply put, Shaq looked old.

Now, he's like the Shaq of old.

He's scored 56 points in the last two games, the first time that's happened since March 4-6, 2006. His 15 first-quarter points Friday were his most in a period since April 2005. His footwork is better, keeping him out of foul trouble, and he's controlling games by finding open shooters when opponents double-team him.

"Shaq's leadership right now is at an all-time high," Heat forward Antoine Walker said. "He wants the ball. He's demanding it, he's aggressive and when he gets double-teamed he passes it out and hits guys for open shots. We can't ask for any more than that."

When O'Neal came to Miami nearly three years ago, one of the first things he did was call Wade and tell him that the Heat was his team, an effort to defuse any power struggle before one could start.

With Wade being the go-to guy on offense since, the Heat made the Eastern Conference finals in 2005, then won last season's NBA title. But now with Wade out indefinitely because of a dislocated left shoulder, O'Neal finds himself back in the primary scorer role -- and clearly hasn't forgotten how to operate.

"I have all that in my game. It's just been dormant the last couple years," O'Neal said. "Wasn't really my role to be scoring a lot of points. But you ask me to do something, I'll do it. ... Our No. 1 guy's down and I'm just stepping my game up, because when I was down, he really stepped his game up and played well."

Wade, who is rehabbing the shoulder and will determine in the next couple of weeks if he can try to play again this season, said it is "very joyous" for him to see the Heat playing their best basketball of the year.

He credited many players -- singling out Walker, Eddie Jones, Jason Williams, Alonzo Mourning and James Posey -- but saved his highest praise for the Heat's biggest man.

"Shaq has really looked great," Wade said. "He's making the offense."

Heat coach Pat Riley said he expects upcoming opponents to begin changing the way they defend O'Neal; by putting two players around him at all times, someone on the Miami offensive end will invariably be open, almost creating a 4-on-3 scenario, which clearly benefits the Heat shooters.

"We have no problem with that," Walker said.

Neither would O'Neal.

He's repeatedly said stats no longer matter, and that his singular driving force -- "The way I look. My legacy," O'Neal said -- is more important than his line in the box score.

"Just winning," O'Neal said. "It's all about winning, winning games, winning championships, just winning."

 

[redbearde]

Last time the Bullets played the Heat, it was February 28, and Jamison was still out. But the big deal was Shaq, and Haywood could not stop him.

And for whatever reason, the Bullets couldn't shoot for shit - 35.8% overall and an astounding 28% from 3pt range.

Here's the kicker for me...Wade didn't play in that game either.

Now maybe I'm fooling myself, but this looks good to me.

Heat -4.5 (-102) 2 units

 

[MemphisFan]

Last time the Bullets played the Heat, it was February 28, and Jamison was still out. But the big deal was Shaq, and Haywood could not stop him.

And for whatever reason, the Bullets couldn't shoot for shit - 35.8% overall and an astounding 28% from 3pt range.

Here's the kicker for me...Wade didn't play in that game either.

Now maybe I'm fooling myself, but this looks good to me.

Heat -4.5 (-102) 2 units

Jamison and Butler were both out. Leaving Arenas as their only scoring option and he went 3-18 and 0-8 from 3.

This time, the big three are intact and I wouldn't expect a repeat performance from Arenas.

 

[redbearde]

Welp...like I said. Maybe I'm fooling myself.

:shake:

 

[redbearde]

Miami made 10 of 25 FTs....Shaq accounts for 6 of those misses.

That's extremely irritating.

.........so is Washington taking 41 FTs compared to Miami taking 25......

...in Miami.