NBA ML Dogs 2.26

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 73-126, 36.68%, +19.01 units
Spreads: 135-130-13, 48.56%, +5.8 units

Spurs -7.5 (-105)
76ers -2.5 (-105)
Bulls/Magic U189 (-110) wsex
Nugs/Grizz O223.5 (+101)
Utah -6.5 (-102ish)
Bobcats +410
Bobcats +9 (-109)

For ML dogs, the selection looks scant today.....not quite like Saturday, but as I look the games over, I cut out the Kings for complete lack of value, the Celtics because they've won 1 in their last 23, and they won't win tonight, Orlando because they're redefining meltdown this season...

Though, honestly, the Magic should be worth a shot at some eventual number...right now though, it's at only +272/-288 at matchbook. 3:1 might get my interest, but that would be a slim margin, really...mostly because I fully expect the Bulls to win...

I've been riding the fade Denver train a little recently, and I honestly wonder if EVEN MEMPHIS could manage a win against them...+130/-144 right now...

Not sure i want to dick with that.

Hawks at Dallas.......

well, undoubtedly there'll be some value here somewhere because no one in his right mind is going to think Atlanta has much chance in this one. I tend to agree, but I always like to snoop around a bit on the particularly large dogs...

It's the sort of thing where one book might have +900, another +1200, and again another 1500.....

devean george is out - that's hardly like Howard or stackhouse being out...and I can't think of anything else that would be in the Hawks' favor for this game. history is ancient; there's one game in 06 and one in 05. So trends between these two mean nothing.

recently:
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

and dallas has won 19 of their last 20.....

sound like a good spot to fade em.......?

+1300/-1450 right now....It's probably possible to get +1400 sometime today...

No, I'm not giving serious thought to this, but I do want to give it at least a passing consideration.

Teams that strike me as worthy of consideration for a ML dog play today...

Atlanta - not really
Portland - 225 to 250 might be worth a betting they shoot 60% like against the Lakers
Orlando - not with my money
 
Here's a little something to think about with the Hawks/Mavs game. Josh Howard was questionable for Saturday with an ankle injury. He ended up going and was quite productive in 40 minutes scoring 27 points.

Ankle injuries seem to be a real pain unless rested and the Mavs play 4 times in the next 6 days. If the Mavs wanted to give him any rest today would be the day against the Hawks. With a game tomorrow in Minny on the board I think they could rest him today. I haven't read anywhere that it's a possibility, but if I'm Avery I certainly entertain the idea.

That said I still think the Mavs could beat the Hawks without Dirk and Howard. If both go and you're looking for a backdoor on the +14 spread you should read this.

Avery Johnson did some grousing at practice on Friday. And his players knew he was completely justified in venting.
When the deep reserves let a 32-point lead get chopped to 10 by Miami's deep reserves, all bets are off the next day at practice.
"If you go into the fourth quarter like that and you got to bring your starters back, that's something you don't want to do," said Devin Harris, who was not immune to the strong words the coach let fly in film and practice sessions. "But we addressed it, and hopefully it won't happen again."

GL tonight redbearde
 
Satyr, I hope your boys get it done for us!

JPicks, thanks for that...I doubt I'll be on that game at all...too much crap shooting all around.

GL this eve gents.
 
smh212 said:
Red,

No interest in the HEAT tonight?
Click to expand...

only to fade their old asses...

Though I'm looking at +4 last time these two played in January and -4 now...

that's another damned ridiculous line move....

but I think I'll just lay off tonight.

Obvious value on the Heat tonight......though will they win 2 nights in a row?

David Lee being questionable is significant in my mind...

GL whatever you decide. I'm just too much pussy for that game, I guess...
 
Rashard Lewis was Questionable....now Probable.....that pretty much strikes Portland off my list of well-reasoned plays...
 
This is pathetic.

Denver makes Memphis look good.

Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road

Memphis is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Memphis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

There are times when I wonder what the ruddy fuck I bother with trends for...in this case, I think it's all worthless and I might as well put my money on Black...

Having said that, the Total has frickin plummeted for this game...what's the deal?

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Memphis's last 19 games at home

Bold is an outlier, imo, because those games were against some teams that do bother with defense...

Dallas, San Antonio, Minny[?], Indiana, Milk(over), Sack...

This should be another one of those stupid high scoring lay-up games...

Thing is, this line has dropped 6 points since I last looked at it...wtf? Wasn't it at 229, or am I on crack?
 
weeelll......for that to happen, I think Dallas will have to roll over and play dead.

If Howard doesn't play...and they rest Dirk...and give the others food poisoning..

then perhaps your boys have a shot.........

not really optimistic bout it, tho....
 
looks like that's it for me today. I already tapped the Suns for tomorrow.......

wonder if I'll play a dog ever again.......

well, maybe I'll play the kitties.....gotta ruminate on that...
 
Do you entertain 1st H ML plays on huge dogs like ATL?? Being Dallas tends to start slow it would seem the best chance of real big payout is the 1st H ML.....its doubtful they would play 2 complete halves vs a team like ATL...something for the future ...wanted to tell u that before tip but slipped my mind...BOL
 
SportsNut said:
Do you entertain 1st H ML plays on huge dogs like ATL?? Being Dallas tends to start slow it would seem the best chance of real big payout is the 1st H ML.....its doubtful they would play 2 complete halves vs a team like ATL...something for the future ...wanted to tell u that before tip but slipped my mind...BOL
Click to expand...

I've considered this, but the odds are lower, and I have no idea how to even remotely consider how to predict who wins a half...at least with the game you have the additional impetus of wanting the same thing as the team (as opposed to winning a spread)....

hard to say how that would go...unless there's a team that has a serious problem with finishing and they repeatedly fold up in the 2nd half...

interesting thought, tho...
 
regarding the Kitties,

Brevin Knight and Gerald Wallace are upgraded to probable according to donbest.

And as Believe notes above, I'm getting over 4:1 fading a team which has been averaging 88ppg against the league's best AND WORST teams...

It's a flyer for sure, but this is the sort of lightly unpredictable situation I love.

of note:
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LA Clippers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
LA Clippers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

...for what it's worth to you.
 
it was a fuckin ugly looking bend at the knee...turn on ESPNews...

good day for me.

0-1 ML dogs.
4-2 Spreads

ML dogs: 73-127, 36.5%, +18.01 units
Spreads: 139-132-13, 48.94%, +7.74 units
 
DEFINITELY a good shot to take....all the ??s about injuries didn't amount to much...the damn near ALL played...
 
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