redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 83-144, 46.56%, +21.17 units
Spreads: 171-163-15, 49%, +5.06 units
Things are looking up. With a strong run through the last month, I should still make my goal. Had I been more selective, I'dve been there a couple months ago, I'm sure. Got hosed on Denver forgetting how to fucking rebound in the last 10 seconds of their game. And the Pistons damn near blew my under in their bid to win that in the fourth.
I remind you folks that it is friday, and for whatever reasons, home teams like to win on Friday - especially homedogs. Having said that, I am confident in Miami beating up on Indiana just like everyone else (except Atlanta, but big fucking deal). Everyone else beats all fucking hell out of them, and that includes one of the hottest teams in the East right now. This is one of those road games that is EXTREMELY winnable for Miami, and I think they'll make sure they get it.
Miami's been selectively playing guys...Zo sat out a game...Gary Payton sat out a couple games ago. I cannot predict who may or may not play this time, but Zo is questionable. My gut tells me that Both Gary and Zo will play this time, and Riley's just resting guys on occasion, especially in weeks with B2Bs and multiple games......this is just a guess.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are in absolute season meltdown mode. Tinsley can't get himself tossed every game, and while I've heard nothing to suggest it, I get the distinct impression that he's doing everything he can to piss his team off - showing up when he feels like it for practice, the antics last game.......between his shitass attitude, JO'neal's shitass knee (as well as other injuries), and that horrible shitass trade they made with GSW (who are rocking and kicking all sorts of ass right now). O'neal left last game in the 2nd half after aggravating his injury.
Last time these two played (Jan 24th), I remember this game......Miami was a 2.5 or 3pt dog at Indiana, and Miami beat them down through 3 quarters. At the beginning of the 4th, it was all Miami, 70-57 (I think the lead was higher at one point), and they were holding the Pacers to absolute shit in the offensive set. Flashback to their previous meeting Jan 18...
end of the third, all Miami 85-70, and at one point they were up by more than 20. It was a brutal shellacking, and BOTH TIMES.....both....
Miami collapsed in the 4th, and the pacers came back to cover the game on the 18th (losing by 3) and winning the game on the 24th by 2. This is two 4th Q collapses in a row against this team, and I don't think Riley's going to let them forget it. I'm not preaching revenge or suggesting this one is Circled for them, but I have got to believe that especially that last LOSS will convince them to not let up, and keep fucking playing championship bball.
I really think this is going to be an absolute slaughter. If Jermaine plays, that's fine, he's a unicycle right now. If Tinsley plays, he may well get himself tossed at any point. Even if they both play well, I think Payton and JWill counteract Tinsley just fine, and between Zo and Shaq, a lame Jermaine will be relegated to fadeaway jumpers, and I WILL TAKE IT.
With the exception of Granger, the supporting roles are filled with less skilled players like Jeff Foster. Okay, maybe I shouldn't belittle Marquis Daniels, but Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy get significant minutes, and they DEMAND belittling...
I recently went through the remarkable FG% the Pacers are giving up (it averages about 48% this month), and I went through the Pacers FG%...it averaged a bit above 42%...
Things haven't changed much since then. Since February 23rd, here is the Pacers' performance:
02/23/2007 at Toronto L 110 - 88 L (5) U (200)
02/25/2007 vs Sacramento L 110 - 93 L (-6½) O (200½)
02/27/2007 vs Phoenix L 103 - 92 L (6) U (215)
03/02/2007 at Phoenix L 115 - 90 L (10½) U (210½)
03/03/2007 at LA Clippers L 87 - 64 L (3) U (186½)
03/06/2007 at Sacramento L 102 - 98 P (4) U (201)
03/07/2007 at Utah Jazz L 94 - 72 L (11) U (198½)
03/10/2007 vs Philadelphia L 100 - 96 L (-3) O (183)
03/11/2007 at Cleveland L 99 - 88 P (11) O (185)
03/13/2007 at Minnesota L 86 - 81 W (6) U (190)
03/14/2007 vs Washington L 112 - 96 L (5½) O (202)
03/17/2007 vs Atlanta W 113 - 90 W (-5½) O (189½)
03/20/2007 at Houston L 86 - 76 W (11½) U (193)
03/21/2007 at San Antonio L 90 - 72 L (14½) U (183½)
It's been atrocious, and now they go home to face the East dominating Shaq. It gets no easier.
of note:
Miami is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games overall
Indiana is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games
Indiana is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
Indiana is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
of course, this is also true:
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Indiana is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games when playing Miami
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
However, the teams doing this to Miami are no longer in PacersLand, and now Miami is a shaq-based interior domination team. This pacers team, sans Jermaine (and even including him to a point) will be settling for outside jumpers, and the Heat will beat all shit out of them that way...
I've rambled on enough.
oh, for those of you who care, this is going to be a MASSIVE public play - covers votes indicate something like 80% are on the Heat. So wait til gametime, you'll get like +3.5 or so, and you can fade chalky-square public morons like me.
Heat -1.5 (-110) 2 units
Heat -3 (+107) 2 units
Spreads: 171-163-15, 49%, +5.06 units
Things are looking up. With a strong run through the last month, I should still make my goal. Had I been more selective, I'dve been there a couple months ago, I'm sure. Got hosed on Denver forgetting how to fucking rebound in the last 10 seconds of their game. And the Pistons damn near blew my under in their bid to win that in the fourth.
I remind you folks that it is friday, and for whatever reasons, home teams like to win on Friday - especially homedogs. Having said that, I am confident in Miami beating up on Indiana just like everyone else (except Atlanta, but big fucking deal). Everyone else beats all fucking hell out of them, and that includes one of the hottest teams in the East right now. This is one of those road games that is EXTREMELY winnable for Miami, and I think they'll make sure they get it.
Miami's been selectively playing guys...Zo sat out a game...Gary Payton sat out a couple games ago. I cannot predict who may or may not play this time, but Zo is questionable. My gut tells me that Both Gary and Zo will play this time, and Riley's just resting guys on occasion, especially in weeks with B2Bs and multiple games......this is just a guess.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are in absolute season meltdown mode. Tinsley can't get himself tossed every game, and while I've heard nothing to suggest it, I get the distinct impression that he's doing everything he can to piss his team off - showing up when he feels like it for practice, the antics last game.......between his shitass attitude, JO'neal's shitass knee (as well as other injuries), and that horrible shitass trade they made with GSW (who are rocking and kicking all sorts of ass right now). O'neal left last game in the 2nd half after aggravating his injury.
Last time these two played (Jan 24th), I remember this game......Miami was a 2.5 or 3pt dog at Indiana, and Miami beat them down through 3 quarters. At the beginning of the 4th, it was all Miami, 70-57 (I think the lead was higher at one point), and they were holding the Pacers to absolute shit in the offensive set. Flashback to their previous meeting Jan 18...
end of the third, all Miami 85-70, and at one point they were up by more than 20. It was a brutal shellacking, and BOTH TIMES.....both....
Miami collapsed in the 4th, and the pacers came back to cover the game on the 18th (losing by 3) and winning the game on the 24th by 2. This is two 4th Q collapses in a row against this team, and I don't think Riley's going to let them forget it. I'm not preaching revenge or suggesting this one is Circled for them, but I have got to believe that especially that last LOSS will convince them to not let up, and keep fucking playing championship bball.
I really think this is going to be an absolute slaughter. If Jermaine plays, that's fine, he's a unicycle right now. If Tinsley plays, he may well get himself tossed at any point. Even if they both play well, I think Payton and JWill counteract Tinsley just fine, and between Zo and Shaq, a lame Jermaine will be relegated to fadeaway jumpers, and I WILL TAKE IT.
With the exception of Granger, the supporting roles are filled with less skilled players like Jeff Foster. Okay, maybe I shouldn't belittle Marquis Daniels, but Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy get significant minutes, and they DEMAND belittling...
I recently went through the remarkable FG% the Pacers are giving up (it averages about 48% this month), and I went through the Pacers FG%...it averaged a bit above 42%...
Things haven't changed much since then. Since February 23rd, here is the Pacers' performance:
02/23/2007 at Toronto L 110 - 88 L (5) U (200)
02/25/2007 vs Sacramento L 110 - 93 L (-6½) O (200½)
02/27/2007 vs Phoenix L 103 - 92 L (6) U (215)
03/02/2007 at Phoenix L 115 - 90 L (10½) U (210½)
03/03/2007 at LA Clippers L 87 - 64 L (3) U (186½)
03/06/2007 at Sacramento L 102 - 98 P (4) U (201)
03/07/2007 at Utah Jazz L 94 - 72 L (11) U (198½)
03/10/2007 vs Philadelphia L 100 - 96 L (-3) O (183)
03/11/2007 at Cleveland L 99 - 88 P (11) O (185)
03/13/2007 at Minnesota L 86 - 81 W (6) U (190)
03/14/2007 vs Washington L 112 - 96 L (5½) O (202)
03/17/2007 vs Atlanta W 113 - 90 W (-5½) O (189½)
03/20/2007 at Houston L 86 - 76 W (11½) U (193)
03/21/2007 at San Antonio L 90 - 72 L (14½) U (183½)
It's been atrocious, and now they go home to face the East dominating Shaq. It gets no easier.
of note:
Miami is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games overall
Indiana is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games
Indiana is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
Indiana is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
of course, this is also true:
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Indiana is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games when playing Miami
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
However, the teams doing this to Miami are no longer in PacersLand, and now Miami is a shaq-based interior domination team. This pacers team, sans Jermaine (and even including him to a point) will be settling for outside jumpers, and the Heat will beat all shit out of them that way...
I've rambled on enough.
oh, for those of you who care, this is going to be a MASSIVE public play - covers votes indicate something like 80% are on the Heat. So wait til gametime, you'll get like +3.5 or so, and you can fade chalky-square public morons like me.
Heat -1.5 (-110) 2 units
Heat -3 (+107) 2 units
GL with the Friday card.
