NBA ML dogs 2.21

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 70-120, 36.84%, +16.58 units
Spreads: 127-125-12, 48.11%, +3.18 units

Spurs -6.5 (-110)
Celtics +12.5 (+101)
Knicks +2.5 (-110)
Knicks +127
Grizz/Warriors O229 (-110)
Grizz/GSW Under 231 (-103)
Grizzlies +320
Raptors -3.5 (-110) (wsex pulled a fast one on me...thought I was getting -3)
Trailblazers +10 (+102)
Trailblazers +530

Again, I like the looks of the Celtics +points...and this time it's DD. By the time I get it, I hope it's still 13...or better.

We shall see where the lines go later.....

:cheers:
 
Celtics +12.5 (+101)

I'm not going to work too hard at this one. And maybe the Celtics blew their wad last night.......and the Suns sure didn't (Nash only played like 27 minutes!), but what the Suns were doing earlier this year was during the 4th quarter they slowed down....well, the Clippers are used to folding up and dying, but the Celtics have been coming back for covers on the road all year.

Anyway, here's a similar situation as last night in my mind, and before I get talked out of it, I'm jumping it. btw, I have absolutely zero support for a ML play here......there's no reason to think the Cs will actually win this game.

of note:
Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 18-7-1 ATS away this season
Boston is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Boston is third in three points made allowed in the league with 4.9 per game

Last time they played, Phoenix won by 5 as 4.5pt favorites. and I think the line is a tad inflated this time...
 
Knicks +2.5
Knicks +127

Last time they played(Jan 10), NY was a 4.5 pt fave at home, and they won by 7 (one of my few January wins). Before that, AI was in Philly, and the team concept was totally different. The Knicks have been playing better and better, and I don't think they should be dogs here...the line isn't out of line mathematically, I guess, but the Knicks are a much better team, they'll match up very well, and I have trouble believing the 76ers will be able to stop the Knicks' inside play.

If they get into a running match, the 76ers won't be able keep up, and if they open flat, the knicks'll never let them catch up.

of note:
New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New York is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
New York is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
New York leads the league in rebounds at 44.3
Philadelphia has the third worst rebounds in the league at 39.1
 
Spurs -6.5 (-110)

Spurs cruised last night. Looks to me like they've turned the corner on the lackadaisical attitude they had earlier this year. Even if I wanted to consider the Spurs' performances this year, they've been far better on the road than at home. And again, even though we can look don on them for the back end of the B2Bs, billivy's quite right in that their records have increased as the quality of opponent drops. This one smells to me like a huge Spurs victory just like their last 2 games.

of note:
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Atlanta
San Antonio is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Antonio is third in the league in field goal percentage at 47.1.
San Antonio has the second stingiest defence in the league at 90.8 points per game.
Atlanta is the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 92.3 points per game.
Atlanta has the worst field goal percentage in the league with just 43.5.

I would not at all be surprised to see another single digit quarter out of these punks. The Hawks couldn't manage to score against the Bulls defense, and I doubt they'll be able to do it against the Spurs (and all the no-call fouls they get to apply), either. I think we're looking at a 100-78 sort of game with the starters coasting through the 4th on the bench again.
 
j3pj3p said:
I like Boston @+13

Only way they can pay Pierce is by trying to cover games :D
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

I love that!

goodpost.gif
 
On the Knicks with you...might hop on the Celtics later, but I'd have to imagine the line moves even more in our favor, if it moves at all. With 8 hours til tip, I'm willing to take my chances and see what shakes out...
 
Grizz/Warriors O229 (-110)

Not sure how to explain this except...GRIZZ AT WARRIORS.....

of note:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games at home

Last time they played, Memphis won 144-135

Memphis +320

I am not of the opinion that a spread play is worthwhile. Memphis will either lose ATS or win outright......but over 3:1 is well worth a shot (imo)...

Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
 
Seabass said:
On the Knicks with you...might hop on the Celtics later, but I'd have to imagine the line moves even more in our favor, if it moves at all. With 8 hours til tip, I'm willing to take my chances and see what shakes out...
Click to expand...

It already moved against. It was at 13.

'an_horse'
 
Raptors -3.5 (-110) fuckin wsex...

Cleveland has been dong much better. So has Toronto. I'm hoping for a long-range shootout here, and I think Toronto will win that hands down...especially with Gibson's toe being a problem...

Looks like Z is still out.

That's helpful. Still, the second best linebacker in the NBA (Varejao) is still an inside rebounding monster...and he can foul with the best of em....

We will see about Gibson...without him, I think the Cavs have no chance of stopping the Raptors' guard penetration.

Rumors of Scottie Pippen as a Cavalier are floating around. This is hucking fysterical to me...

of note:
Toronto is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Toronto is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Cleveland

conversely:
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto

Yet these are not last year's raptors...last two times they played, Toronto covered at Cleveland and won at home SU as dogs...
 
:cheers: we will see just how healthy the suns are with nash back tonight..
GL on all your plays red..
With you on SA
 
thanks farm. I fully expect to see a suns win, but I think they'll let the Cs back into it.......

GL to you, too!
 
That is a big number for the Suns. It's a wide open back door when they get up by 20 in the fourth and lay down. I just couldn't lay money against 'em, though.

Good Luck with your card, bro.
 
thanks Flounder! GL to you, too!


aaccording to donbest...

02/20/07 G Baron Davis Knee is expected to miss at least another week.
02/20/07 F Josh Powell Flu is "?" Wednesday vs Memphis.
02/20/07 F Matt Barnes Hamstring is "?" Wednesday vs Memphis.
02/20/07 G Jason Richardson Hand upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Memphis.
02/14/07 F Mickael Pietrus Ankle is "?" Wednesday vs Memphis.
12/22/06 F Zarko Cabarkapa Back out indefinitely.

YOINKS......GSW has a lot of guys questionable to out...
 
Trailblazers +10 (+102)
Trailblazers +530

Walton out. Brown Out. Radmanivich Out. Evans is Questionable.

The blazers should lose, but at over 5:1, I think it's worth the risk. I figure on a 30% chance of winning for them...perhaps more. And I think they are EXTREMELY likely to cover this spread.

of note:
Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against LA
LA Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home
LA Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Lakers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Portland
LA Lakers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Portland

and last time they played, they were in Portland and the Lakers lost by 11 as 5pt faves...

I am hopeful, at least.

I'm also playing way to fucking many games again......damnit.

hehe. GL this eve folks.

Tonight we celebrate the Presanctified Divine Liturgy of St Gregory the Great for the first week of Lent.......I will be away. talk to ya tomorrow...
 
apparently we will be celebrating liturgy without me. my head is pounding and I have splotchy vision...damnit...
 
I officially hate Pau Fucking Gasol. ...way to uselessly fuck my middle with an uncontested no-jump pussy dunk with 2 seconds left, you assclown. Die of cock rot.

:angry:

Still. Good day. Pau can die of crotchrot, though.

Memphis played well for that game, and then blew it with 2 seconds to go in the 4th...what a complete lack of a play...they were hoping for a foul, and while there was a lot of contact, it was an absolute pussy play and pretty stupid when you're not on your homecourt. Nah...let's face it. It was stupid to not try for a good shot...idiots.

....alas.

in lighter news...Thank You, Trailblazers! Actually, I should send a thank you note to smush parker. He acted like he had the wrong jersey on tonight...no defense...bad passes...missing layups...pathetic.

hope everyone else was on the GSW/Memphis over...

ML Dogs: 71-122, 36.79%, +19.77 units
Spreads: 131-128-12, 48.34%, +3.94 units
 
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