NBA ML dogs 2.20

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 70-118, 37.23%, +18.58 units
Spreads: 125-123-12, 48.08%, +3.23 units

figured I'd get started a little early for Tuesday.

No wagers yet, and I'll probably wait them out. But here's what I'm looking at so far....

There's a lot of injuries that might be coming back as soon as the break is over. Nash...Maybe Nocioni, several others...Sean May, AI, J-rich......anyway...

Gotta keep an eye out. A lot of these may be questionable like they have been for a while and return.

Hawks at Bulls

Last 2 times they played, the Hawks covered. Bulls have been shitty recently...especially without Nocioni, Chicago has only managed a win against Nashless Phoenix (who everyone can beat). Meanwhile, Atlanta's been on something of a tear...having a fine westcoast road trip so far (3-1 SU).

of note:
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

of course there are contrary trends as well.
Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta

But those 2 ATS Atlanta wins are the last 2 meetings...

This is a winnable game for the Hawks, and we can expect Chicago to have stretches of no scoring while ol dead-eye Deng is on the bench taking a breather. If a now mostly healed Hawks team can keep with dead-eye and Nocioni is still out, there should be a good chance for a SU win compared to the 275-300 ML I expect to get out of this 7.5 points.

So, I will likely be on

Atlanta Spread and perhaps ML tomorrow.

Seattle should crush memphis. Not sure I'll put a dog in that fight, though...

Boston ought to be a chance versus the Kings (though I'm thinking it's a shitass number). Just can't bring myself to put money on the Celtics....

some things to consider in Sacramento:
Sacramento is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games
Sacramento is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

on the other hand
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Sacramento is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

for what it's worth...
 
Knicks should be a very small fave, and I like their chances against the Magic.

of note:
Orlando is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
Orlando is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New York is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

on the other hand:
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New York
Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York

Last time they played (Feb 3rd), the Knicks beat the Magic by 8 as 5pt dogs.

J E T S, Knicks KNICKS KNICKS!
 
another key ingredient to the Knicks....

rebounding quirks:

Orlando is second in rebounds allowed in the league at 38.1
New York leads the league in rebounds at 44.3
 
Finally someone with a new non-allstar related thread.
Was looking at the chicago-atl game red.
ATL +7.5 looks interesting
NO looks interesting as a favorite in bobcat land..
? is the line at the garden??
 
Sac -6....only play I would even remotely consider on Tuesdays card(as far as lines out now)
 
interesting BAR......why?

Even though Boston's been lamentable at home, they've actually been alright ATS on the road.......

Do you have situational thoughts there?
 
The Farm said:
Finally someone with a new non-allstar related thread.
Was looking at the chicago-atl game red.
ATL +7.5 looks interesting
NO looks interesting as a favorite in bobcat land..
? is the line at the garden??
Click to expand...

Atl looks interesting to me too...

but I'll let you and Believe discuss the Quality NBA Action that is the New Orleans/Charlotte game.

too many questions for my thoughts there......

'an_horse'
 
redbearde said:
interesting BAR......why?

Even though Boston's been lamentable at home, they've actually been alright ATS on the road.......

Do you have situational thoughts there?
Click to expand...

That line tells me that its a PK at Fleetcenter or whatever the hell it be called now). That there is a few points off. Paulie will be shut down totally by 93. Now, you have some seasoned vets against young guys in what is still a top 10 tough arena to play in. Six is a lot to lay with a shit team but frankly Boston broke the streak finally and this could be a laydown.
 
ah...well, I wouldn't take the Celts SU.....even with Paulie shut down, the Celtics run their offense through him...so they lock him down and he gets 15 assists instead of 30 points...

just a thought. I likely won't play that game at all.

GL tomorrow.
 
I think when Boston played real well ATS away you have to realize teams took them lightily. No Pierce no threat. There lines were all about dd's...sure they werent less then 8 often. So its a different situation now. I havent looked much at the card but you have to take that into account I think. The flip is I think BOS has been a great dog all season long. Its just now the expectations may have changed abit...just commenting..BOL
 
Good read Redbearde, and I tend to agree with SportsNut here, that's a good argument, it really was a DD spread in question most of the time, Sacto are one of the leans for sure. Still haven't pulled the trigger on anything though :D.
 
Suddenly everyone is falling in love with Boston tonight? Why? I thought it would be an unpopular play but it appears the message boards are flooded with Celtics plays. Not a good sign.

I'm also seeing a lot of love for the T-Wolves at Washington. I wouldn't make that bet. That's just asking for trouble.

Just bet against LAC which is in free fall and you will probably make money. This team is junk and I have a feeling they're going to blow part of it up this week before the deadline. Don't be surprised if some players sit tonight or play limited minutes as LAC doesn't want to risk injury in their trade talks. I think Cassell and Magette are going to be dealt. Cassell is looking more and more like Gary Payton and Magette I guess just doesn't see eye to eye with Dunleavy.

Denver could be live tonight at San Antonio. Their next game is at Dallas and one would have to believe their best chance of grabbing a win would be tonight.
 
Guys how about the Blazers? I'm considering this doggy at home against the Jazz who should be without Deron tonight. Just thinking.
 
Satyr said:
Guys how about the Blazers? I'm considering this doggy at home against the Jazz who should be without Deron tonight. Just thinking.
Click to expand...
zack going to show okur whos his daddy :smiley_acbe:
 
Austin, I'm not a mardi gras boy fan at the moment....

handy, thanks for the comments. I'm not a huge fan of the celtics tonight.....I think in terms of who has a likely shot at an outright win compared to what kind of return I get...at almost 3:1 or better, it might be worth a shot. But like I said above, I can't put money on the celtics right now. I think the others are probably right in that the ATS run the Cs have been on has been with much higher spreads.

I have no interest in the Bullets until they get Jamison back. I have less interest in the Twolves out of general principle.

If Nash and Diaw are back, I may well take your advice. The Suns are just itching for a win tonight...

Satyr, Deron isn't indispensable like Nash...

Okay, Kurt Thomas and Nash are probable, and Diaw is doubtful...
 
lookin like Mobley is doubtful but Brand is probable. (donbest)

-4.5 still seems a tad high, but I may play that anyway...
 
He isn't as crucial as Nash but how long can Utah keep filling the gaps? First Boozer now Deron, they're leaking and frankly I don't think Deron can be replaced tonight, his impact has been immense throughout the season, I don't think taking 2,5 points mean anything here so it's either Portland ML or nothing. Still considering it. :shake:
 
recap:

Hawks +7.5 (-103)
Hawks +292
Knicks -2 (-102)
Nuggets +7.5 (+100)
Nuggets +298
Suns -4.5 (-103)
 
Gl,

I think suns win big tonight, gotta agree with handy that clippers are a team on a free fall. Add in the Fact that suns want to break out of their slump, and the best remedy for this is a convincing win.

Noh seems to be getting their act together and looks like a good play.

Blazers I like a lot. I certainly don't agree that Williams is dispensible. What you take away from him is the threat causing players to chase him around opening up team mates for easy buckets.

Knicks might be worth a small play, as their finally getting their shit together.

I'm also taking my chance with Detroit continuing their hot streak which was broken by Spurs. ( Bucks have no Duncan!!!) Even if Redd plays, I don't see him being an immediate impact to the team.
 
geez...3 full minutes into the game and the score is 2-0...pathetic........

Bullets and Twolves need to get into it...
 
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