NBA ML Dogs 2.12

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 68-118, 36.56%. +14.01 units
Spreads: 119-121-12, 47.22%, +1.61 units

Pistons -8.5 (-110)

This is more a fade of the Clips than it is faith in the Pistons...though that's related, certainly...Last time these two played (feb 8 last year), the pistons were 9 pt faves. Now it's a half point cheaper...

as eames has pointed out, this will be the Clippers 5th game in 7 days.

02/06/2007 at New York L 102 - 90 L (-1) U (200)
02/07/2007 at Cleveland L 94 - 77 L (5½) U (192)
02/09/2007 at Philadelphia W 90 - 89 P (-1) U (190½)
02/11/2007 at Indiana L 94 - 80 L (4½) U (191½)
02/12/2007 at Detroit

Also, this is the last game of the Clippers' 7 game road trip wherein they've beaten the Celtics (who hasn't?) and the 76ers by 1 (a push ATS - this represents the best part of this trip aside from beating boston).

of note:
LA Clippers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
LA Clippers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
Detroit is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Detroit is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

elsewhere, well, everywhere....I don't like the dogs today.

GL gentlemen...

 

[Satyr]

I agree, might pull the trigger on the Stons myself. GL Redbearde :shake: :cheers:

 

[flounder101]

In the event the Stons sit starters in the 4th, I lean toward -4.5 or 5 in the first half.

What say you?

 

[redbearde]

I would agree. I'm thinking that won't happen, though. It's not like the pistons are playing tomorrow, and even with a 20 pt lead, I've watched flip leave the starters in through the final gun many many times.

 

[redbearde]

and since my thinking includes some marginal amount of road/travel fatigue for the Clips, I'm happy with the game spread.

 

[flounder101]

Which do you like more, the first half -4.5 or the final -8?

 

[flounder101]

I know. Let's ask B.A.R. !!! LOL

 

[redbearde]

THERE you go...hahahaha...

I played the game. If you can get -8, then I think you should jump on that.

 

[Austintx_05]

BOL...:shake:

 

[triman]

with you 100% on this one redbeard.Lets cash it in:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

triman, let's win tonight' bro!

austin, GL to you too!

satyr, GL on whatever you decide today!

 

[redbearde]

this is obnoxious. I love the Nuggets tonight, but I fucking hate the -9......I do expect a denver DD win, but damn......a TD and a safety...I'm not sure the Nugs will cover with that extra safety.

 

[redbearde]

Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State

GSW is shit-ass on B2Bs anyway........and lamentably short-handed...man I want to bet this...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

3 similar lines tonight. We know 1 dog will cover. Who will it be?

 

[redbearde]

also of note:
Denver is second in rebounds in the league at 44.2.
Golden State has the worst rebounds allowed in the league 47.0.
Golden State allows the second most three points made in the league with 7.4 per game.
Golden State has the worst defence in the league allowing 107.4 points per game.

 

[redbearde]

3 similar lines tonight. We know 1 dog will cover. Who will it be?

I don't know that. If one is going to, I think it'll be the Hawks. I think the Warriors might with the overvaluing of the Nuggets, but I think that's so likely that want to fucking bet the nuggets...heh.

I think the likelihood of a dog SU win is just about nil to nothing...

 

[redbearde]

Denver -9 (-110)

I AM A PUBLIC SQUARE!

:shake:

 

[Satyr]

I think Hawks cover tonight, Denver should feast off these Warriors.

GL tonight Redbearde :shake:

 

[redbearde]

thanks Satyr...I'm not confident in the Hawks covering. Perhaps an over is in order for that game?