NBA ML dogs 2.11

[redbearde]

ML Dogs: 66-118, 35.87%, +9.99 units
Spreads: 117-121-12, 46.80%, (0.39) units

Bulls @ Suns

Nash is expected to miss, Diaw is doubtful...with them last meeting, the Suns were 3.5 pt faves in Chicago, and they won by a point. Without them, at +6 and +244, I'll be delighted to see if the Suns can handle a loss. Would love to have Nocioni, but I still like the Bulls here without him.

of note:
Contrary to my play, all trends seem to indicate that the Suns should win.
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Phoenix is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home

also, do note that Bulls will be at home next game on the 13th to host the Raptors, and they'll be off again immediately to Charlotte on the 14th........I see significant reasons to fade the Bulls both places. We'll see what they offer for lines.

anyway, for tonight I have

Bulls +6 (+104)
Bulls +244

 

[redbearde]

Hawks @ Warriors

Baron Davis out again tonight. Not sure that matters. Warriors don't like defense, and the Hawks have been playing damned fucking well recently. I think the Hawks can run with them better than the Bulls did, and if either JJ or JS get going tonight, I think the Hawks have a damned good chance at the win.

trends are somewhat conflicting, but I think Atlanta's poorer numbers are a reflection of injury issues. Sucks that Lue is out, but it's not a 5 or 6 man walking wounded team anymore...

of note:
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Golden State has the worst defense in the league allowing 107.4 points per game.
Golden State allows the second most three points made in the league with 7.5 per game.


Hawks +4 (-102)
Hawks +166

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I think value is there for Chicago. But too many people on the Hawks ML tonight. I think they get smoked.

 

[redbearde]

But too many people on the Hawks ML tonight. I think they get smoked.

Is this another public fade concept.........or is there a refined reasoning here?

both?

please explain...

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Just browsing various forums, Im seeing a lot of people take the Atlanta ML. Hitting a ML dawg is very hard and selective. Seems the line is set at the perfect position to give decent value to Atlanta, while not making it too difficult for GS to cover.

 

[redbearde]

so because of this you think they'll get smoked?

or were the two comments totally unrelated?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Unrelated comments. Let down for ATL after their huge win at pheonix. Should see a really lax effort tonight. DD win for GS.

 

[redbearde]

I see. thanks.

and GL tonight!

 

[Satyr]

Like em both Redbearde :shake:

Good luck man.

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[ljc_267]

Nice pick on the Bulls.

 

[redbearde]

I'm a blind squirrel that can pick his nuts occasionally...

 

[Austintx_05]

lol

 

[redbearde]

well, the Hawks did their level best to give that one away...and the warriors were kind enough to give it right back to me.

good night. 2-0 ML dogs, 2-0 spreads......hope you fellas won some too!

ML dogs: 68-118, 36.56%. +14.01 units
Spreads: 119-121-12, 47.22%, +1.61 units

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Nice wins. Hit em both!

 

[cogenman]

nice wins on the moneylines!