NBA ML dogs 2.1

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 63-110, 36.42%, +6.41 units
Spreads: 103-106-12, 46.61%, +3.34 units

Suns -6 (-110)

Having made this wager already, I want to say a few things here regarding the ML dog. The Spurs have absolutely kicked the shit out of the Suns repeatedly the last few years winning 6 of their last 7 and 8 of the last 10. Away from home this year, the Spurs are 14-8 ATS.

Last time out (Nov 8 06), the Spurs were favored by 5.5 at home. Now we're looking at -6.5 for the home Suns. That's a 12 point swing, and the Spurs (again) beat the Suns last game. That's too fucking much...I don't care how much worse we think the Spurs are this year, mathematically, it's too much chalk to give the Suns.

So if you're inclined to bet the dog in this one, do seriously consider the ML dog here. It's going to pay a lot more (or risk a lot less if that's your style), and it's an excellent risk/reward.

Having said all that. I think the Suns will smoke the shit out of the Spurs. Spurs just lost a tough game to the Jazz. Duncan played 36 minutes. Parker played 33. Suns have had 2 days to think about the loss to the Twolves, and given that the Suns play as well this time, I don't see how the hell Spurs manage a win with how they've been shooting this year. I also think the old farts legs might just get a tad tired.

But while I didn't do it today, I do think that fading the Spurs on this rodeo tour will result in profit. I figure on the backends of B2Bs might give me that much more likelihood. And after Monday's Minny debacle, I think the Suns will come out with a vengeance at home.

In any event, GL tomorrow. I'm not dicking with the Cavs/Heat game. I lean Heat. But I don't give a fuck, either.

GL gentlemen.
 
I agree. But I think the Suns win this game. First question I ask myself is do I think the team has a reasonable chance at the win..........and I think the Suns will win.

Perhaps I am simply a chalky square motherfucker.

I do think the Spurs ML has value. So if you think they'll win, you should absolutely hit it. GL to me, though.

:beer:
 
I think two things here. Even when Pho was sluggish early in the season they went to SA and outplayed them. For some reason early in the season they couldnt close games blew a decent lead and went to OT and lost. So even at its so called worse they were able to handle SA. The second is this team seems to take defeats seriously. They had that Wash game marked and went to the MCI from the opening tip and smoked them. I have to think they had this game circled . So off a SU loss and playing a team it has revenge against I think we see the best of Pho. Is that good enough?

Spurs last 17 games have scored 100 just 3 times and twice was vs memphis and the other in OT. Not good for them. The back to back really doesnt concern me much as OT game vs LAL , tough battle tonite and now run and gun suns.

Going to see how this moves tmrw but hoping downward. Thought this was gonna be -5 / -5.5 so suprised somewhat...Not sure what to make of it but the fact they lost tonite probably sways people off them. I though in terms of strength SA was in the realm of Cle...something like -1.5 pts better...remember what happened to Cle in Pho..??

GL Red probably be with ya!
 
Unstudied response would be Suns first half. Expect Spurs to try and coast through the first half and then try and fight second half. GL
 
Good to hear Nut....methinks you and I might be alone on this side tomorrow with ye Ol' Killa/BAR collaboration play...
 
Tuck, a word of caution...

The Suns bench is shorter than it should be, and in their last few games the second quarter was a weak one early on...and then when Nash, Amare, and Marion come back in they were able to overcome the deficits.

As dumb as it may sound, not having Kurt Thomas available hurts the Suns significantly........especially with the interior defense. I think if the suns have trouble it'll be late first/early second and late third and early 4th quarters. I think by the end of the game, though, if there's going to be a slight fatigue issue with the Spurs, that's when it'll hit.

If you take the Suns 1H, I'll certainly be pulling for you.

:shake:
 
Good write-up blue beard. Aye matey! Ya know the Pirates game! So true. Everything you said. I’m waiting too for the line to lower. Weird idea this “value in a line”. There’s no value if in propositions that have absolute outcomes. i.e. if you lose it doesn’t matter what a great ML payoff you would have gotten – there’s no value in a dead ticket no matter how much it would have paid. I like to look at the basic question “Will they win?” If the spread seems too much of a mental jerk-around, then I’ll take the ML. I think the spread may be a mental jerk-around tomorrow night – because after all – it is the Spurs. Maybe close. Hence. Take the ML. Be a man. Hahahahaha! Nothing worse than picking a winner and then losing by a point or two. Like if you had taken the MAVS tonight. How stupid would you feel losing that game when it was down to a point?
 
I would have felt stupid making the bet...not losing the bet.

I don't take a wager when I think I win it by a point...I never buy points, and if I can I sell them (pinny was my friend).

I honestly figure on a 10pt Suns win...at least. If it's a 5 or 7pt game, then I was simply wrong.

And if the Spurs win, well...heh...

As for taking ML faves...I never do that. Perhaps I am simply a monumental pussy, but the idea of laying 2500 to win 1000 strikes me as a long-term impossible mission. Even at -200, the win rate I would have to hit is far beyond my ability...

GL on your wager...I get the distinct impression you, me, and Nut will be the only ones on it. Though it looks like you're going to get the brunt of the "don't go against the collaboration" harassment.

.....which I appreciate!

:beer:

GL to us!
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Spurs ML worth a shot. Most valuable ML all season.
Click to expand...

I dont think so imo. Also they the spurs had a tough game against the Jazz last night and had a chance to win . Now they have to Run with the Suns, after the Suns loss to the Twolves. IMO i think Suns make a Big statement on TNT 'an_horse'
 
malibu$urfer said:
Good write-up blue beard. Aye matey! Ya know the Pirates game! So true. Everything you said. I’m waiting too for the line to lower. Weird idea this “value in a line”. There’s no value if in propositions that have absolute outcomes. i.e. if you lose it doesn’t matter what a great ML payoff you would have gotten – there’s no value in a dead ticket no matter how much it would have paid. I like to look at the basic question “Will they win?” If the spread seems too much of a mental jerk-around, then I’ll take the ML. I think the spread may be a mental jerk-around tomorrow night – because after all – it is the Spurs. Maybe close. Hence. Take the ML. Be a man. Hahahahaha! Nothing worse than picking a winner and then losing by a point or two. Like if you had taken the MAVS tonight. How stupid would you feel losing that game when it was down to a point?
Click to expand...

Naturally, a dead bet has no value. But we can't bet after the game, we would all be great at that I'm sure :D. So value has to be determined before the match, and of course there is a risk that the other side will end up a winner.

Today I agree with redbearde, I like the odds on the Spurs, these are the Spurs after all, but the spot for them isn't good, coming off an OT win (after abysmal FG%) and a loss in SLC. Spurs are b2b and have problems hanging with the high scoring teams. The Suns, on the other side, are coming off a road loss against Minnesota. Still, they had enough time to think about it and regroup. Phoenix are the better team at the moment, and frankly it's hard to back the Spurs here, despite the rather appealing ML odds. However it's also hard to eat 6 points for ~ 1.90.
I'll probably leave it alone and see how it goes, still thinking.
 
Myself I am waiting closer to tipoff to get a read on this line. Though its Suns or pass. I dont want to root for SA think best case is they lose by 4 points. Personally I find it funny that people think this line is way off. Cause it isnt really maybe 1 pt to high. SA is simply not in the Mavs or Suns class IMO at this time. Maybe some Spurs player finds the fountain of youth or is rejuvanted at some point. Your relying on Barry or Ginobili , Finley or Horry...Now what has kept me off this game is what red mentioned NO Kurt Thomas Is HUGE! They have Barbosa who is better then all Spurs not named Duncan and Parker . Really not much else to count on ...Banks and Jones have been inconsistent. Though I dfeinetly trust James Jones to hit a few threes...

The talk about SA being a sleeping dog is just that talk . SA has not played well all season....PERIOD. Naturally they are capable of a good showing but they have flaws. Oberto looked like he could give them something scoring 10+ in 5 of the first 14 games but once in the past 33 games. Which happened to be on Dallas remember that 7 for 7.

Thinking about Suns ML , maybe 1st Half or maybe wait till half..
 
In regards to the line people are not very observant I guess. Suns lost at home to Wash laying -10 the just traveled to Wash as -5 and smoked the Wiz...

So dont caught up in the 6.5 meaning something in San Antonio (like a PK game) cause it doesnt mean anything. Home court is not a real factor it doesnt mean that automatically the line would be such and such.....

Suns being -5 in Wash meant what? Sometimes yo u have to understand everything about gambling is adjustments. You cant approach every game or every line the same way.

Is the book adjusting to get you off one team and on another?? As I said I had this at 5 or 5.5 so I dont see this being way off....

This is like the Pre- Super Bowl!
 
I don't think the line is way off. I don't think it should have been different. What I do think however is that getting 3.60 on San Antonio is too much against anyone. Also there is a solid chance Spurs respond tonight against a team they have OWNED in the last few years. 18-4 in last 22 games.

I also agree that calculating reverse fixture odds according to tonight's line is wrong. What about situational plays? There are several fundamental factors and not all of them are the same every time the two teams meet.


I disagree about Barbosa being better than Manu though. He is certainly more explosive and a better player compared to his previous seasons, but Manu is a thinker, a very intelligent player and it shows on the court.
Don't you think it's easier to average 16 PPG in a team that scores 111 per game then in a team that averages "only" 98? Also Spurs aren't a fast break team like the Suns, a whole different profile.

Perhaps you'll remember one player: Drazen Petrovic. That's who Manu reminds me of. Drazen was a lot more talented on the offense, but their approach to the game is similar. An intelligent basketball player, that's what Manu is all about. He hasn't been great throughout the season, but I don't think he's on the fade. The backbone of the team (Parker(24)-TD(30)-Manu(29)) aren't that old.

Opposed to Barry (35), Bowen (35), Horry (36) and Finley (33), who obviously are.

Plus there's the Oberto factor, who has been a liability in the offense even though a good presence in the paint. Udrih still hasn't excelled to a first team player, so it's all open when Spurs future is concerned. They could slide down to mediocrity but they could also get a few young players (esp the forward and SG positions) and rejuvenate the team within a season or two.


The main question is, how do you think tonight's game will look like? I expect the Spurs to knock down way more shots than in their last two games, I also expect them to control game tempo, despite the fact this game is played in Arizona. Also SA should control the boards, and what I think Popp will enforce tonight is tampering with their ball distribution, in a similar way as they did in 2005 playoffs. Letting Nash score his stuff and using Oberto to hustle with Amare, while Duncan takes care of Marion in a mismatch. Also Horry can be used on the high post, but the key will be FG%: If SA keeps their percentage high, they have a great shot. Meaning less fast breaks for PHX, and making them play against a set up D time and time out.

Good luck tonight SportsNut, always a pleasure to discuss games with you bro. :shake: :cheers:
 
sorry redbearde to have polluted your thread with pro-Spurs arguments, I promise I won't do it again :D.

:cheers: GL tonight man.
 
If there is such a thing as GOOD pollution I think you found Satyr. The problem I have with the OWNED factor is this. I think we agree this is watered down version of SA which I would say look at NE in football. With the Suns this is the best they have played as a team IMO. So that 18-4 trend doesnt correlate to todays teams. They talk about when SA was the beast of the League and Suns were the upcoming new kids. You cant look at last year as even comparable cause NO Amare. They played once this year and as I said even when PHO was slumping early they went into SA and took it to them. For some reason they struggled to close games and blew it in OT. Todays Suns are a much better unit that the one that started the season. The Suns of a couple years ago with Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson didnt play any defense.

I am glad we agree on the perception of the line. I do agree at the moment its appears a tad to high but waiting to much closer till gametime to see how it holds up. Also glad to see we agree its not so cut and dry figuring out odds.

In regards to Manu I even somewhat agree. I did wonder if I was stretching it to say Barbosa was better then him. My main problem with him as I said is inconsistency. There are so many games that he disappears in. Even recently just 9 of 37 from deep. He just seems to be in two gears 55%+ from the floor or 35% or below. The team needs to rely on him. I think his switch to the 6th man role isnt just about igniting the team but him as well. I guess with Barbosa I like his offensive prowess. Being able to come of the bench throw in 20 pts(okay only 16 avg) dish 4 assists , shot 40% from three and so on....

It was a stretch to say the Barbosa is better but I guess he is fitting in better. Giving Pho exactly what they need where Manu to me isnt at the moment. I dont thnk Manu is on the fade at all I just was curious if he would ever elevate his game further or become that consistent force. I do not think he is on the decline. Just not sure he is any better then he has shown.

Growing up Drazen Petrovic was one of my fav players. Was very upset to hear of his tragic death.

Udrih has been a huge disappointment and they chased backup PGs on the supposed trading block all season it seems. Oberto looked like something early on but has since disappeared. They just havent gotten much from Elson or Oberto. Which makes Duncan semi-slide more problamatic.

I think Suns could run them right out of the building if SA doesnt rebound better. I think the opportunity to knock down alot of wide open shots will be there but will they?? Finley isnt playing consistent so its a role of the dice with him , Manu just 9 of 37 from deep recently , so who? Barry and Bowen dont ever seem to take but more then a couple of threes. Matt Bonner is OUT. It still falls back to Tony Parker and he has had some huge games vs Pho. As a team its been a struggle now for awhile. Outside of Memphis they have 1 OT game in 17 games where they scored 100 points. I do agree they control tempo though. They have been in every game recently and that lends be to an under here..

Absolutely agree that FG percentage is huge. Which is what scares me for SA since its been around 44% minus Memphis and a short handed team or two...

BOL. Truly cant wait to watch this game
 
Too much mojo against me tonight. I bought my bet back...

Spurs +6.5 (+102)

here's to hoping for a 6 point Suns win......and another incredible BAR hook cover.

:beer:
 
U knew the king would be playin in Miami.. this will be a huge event with all kind of celebs sitting courtside
 
Oh, I don't care of Lebron plays or not. The Cavs will likely lose, and I want no part of that game.

:shake:
 
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