NBA ML Dogs 12.30

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 48-76, 38.71%, +5.405 units
Spreads: 55-44-7, 51.89%, +30.124 units

I must be missing something.

Why the fuck are the Warriors and Wizards dogs tomorrow?

the Raptors strike me as another quality possibility with what should be significant value after today's quality loss...

I don't see any spreads or totals that blow my skirt up, yet.
 
Was a bit suprised by the Warriors getting 4 points myself. They've had alot of recent sucess against the Kings.

I'm not nearly as suprised about the Bucks game. Maybe I'm just not sold yet on the Wizards ability to play on the road. That could be my error though not adjusting quickly enough to the current trends. Bucks have won 6 straight at home and are probably getting some respect for their recent hot streak. They've beat some QUALITY teams during their run.
 
A lot of these teams have B2Bs and 4th in 5s...I'm aiming for a lot of unders today.

Notably,

Heat/Magic under
Bobcats/Pacers under
Cavs/Bulls Under

I have already wagered

hornets/Mavs Under 180 +103 2 units
blazers/Jazz Under 190 +101 2 units
 
Do you think the Cavs are a wise bet tomorrow? I'm just not a firm believer of the Cavs on B2Bs.
 
Raptors +200
Bullets +162
Warriors +164

I am less enthused about the Raptors, but I do like em at 2:1.

Upon reflection, if we compare what these bullets/GSW lines would be if the venue was reversed to what the are today, I really do think they're inflated for the dogs...so I'll take what I think is value and like it.
 
Thoughts on some of the wild Dog ML today?

Heat+590 (vs Orl)
Char+571 (vs Ind)
NO+2100 (Vs. Dal)
Portland +590 (vs. Utah)

I think Heat or the Charlotte ML could hit. D.Wade was out yesterday but wondering if he might be back today.
 
Heat/Magic under 176.5 (-101) 2 units
Bobcats/Pacers under 186.5 (+103) 2 units
Cavs/Bulls Under 188.5 (+104) 2 units

Everyone in these are at least on a B2B, and the Kitties & Bulls are on 4th in 5. Cavs and Heat are 3rd in 4, and the kitties just had a tough 3OT game last night.

I expect several of these Unders to hit, though I'd be surprised if all did.

GL tonight folks.
 
lfhlaw said:
Thoughts on some of the wild Dog ML today?

Heat+590 (vs Orl)
Char+571 (vs Ind)
NO+2100 (Vs. Dal)
Portland +590 (vs. Utah)

I think Heat or the Charlotte ML could hit. D.Wade was out yesterday but wondering if he might be back today.
Click to expand...

Wade is doubtful and so are the heat, Charlotte is tired as all hell. New Orleans at Dallas......are you kidding? You really think that hornets team has a chance against a Dallas team that can play D like the pistons and O like the Suns? Portland has an utterly useless bench.

Of those, I like Charlotte the most. But I think they have less than a 5% chance of winning. New Orleans only has a chance if all the Mavericks get food poisoning.

...Just my opinion, and you can tell by my record that I'm wrong more than I'm right. But I don't think I'm wrong about those, bro.
 
GL on most of the card. Wish you'd come to the other side on the Wizards play, but it is what is.
 
lol @ the food poisoning remark :D

btw, I like Raptors the most when dogs are concerned today, I know Memphis got a new coach and they'll be eager to turn a new leaf blah blah, but these odds have some value I think.
As yourself, I dislike Cavs on the road, I would be pounding the hell out of Chicago right now had it not been for Hinrich being doubtful. Still like these Baby Bulls but not as much now.
Warriors could be the play but again, I was hoping for better odds.
GL tonight bro. :shake:
 
JPicks said:
GL on most of the card. Wish you'd come to the other side on the Wizards play, but it is what is.
Click to expand...

I drink bullet kool aid right now.

:smiley_acbe:

I'm wrong an awful lot, too...GL to us on our unders!
 
redbearde said:
I drink bullet kool aid right now.

:smiley_acbe:

I'm wrong an awful lot, too...GL to us on our unders!
Click to expand...

Honestly I've been at the kool-aid stand with you. The overs are like an ATM right now. I just can't get past the gut feeling I have of the Bucks running them out of the building.
 
Satyr said:
As yourself, I dislike Cavs on the road, I would be pounding the hell out of Chicago right now had it not been for Hinrich being doubtful. Still like these Baby Bulls but not as much now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Hinrich's sore pussy does put a damper on things...not to mention Deng's sore back.

misuse of the word yourself is one of my pet peeves. Yourself and myself are used when the antecedent is acting upon, well, himself.

like...

I shot myself in the foot.

not

Bob and myself[should be Bob and I] went to the store.

so it would be

Like you, I dislike the cavs on the road. Now, if you disliked you, then it should be you dislike yourself.

I just feel like getting that off my chest occasionally. Now, feel free to tell me to fuck off.

:smiley_acbe:
 
JPicks said:
Honestly I've been at the kool-aid stand with you. The overs are like an ATM right now. I just can't get past the gut feeling I have of the Bucks running them out of the building.
Click to expand...

I'm not on the over...just the ML. I don't think anyone will run the Wiz out of the building...I've watched several of their games, and those fuckers are well-conditioned.

Bucks might outscore them, but it'll be due to more shots (aussie aussie aussie rebounding) or better shooting....and not tired bullets. I'll take the Bullets in a shootout at over 1.5:1.

or I could be completely wrong.
 
lool :D are you a teacher or something? You're good at this I have to admit.

it really is a misuse now when I see it. But it's no wonder, since english is my 2nd language and I haven't been online in ages, so I need to shake off the rust a bit. :D
Fancy ass :D.


P.S. Fuck off :D.
 
btw New Orleans are @22.00 at Pinny now, lol. So much about the food poisoning, Texas chefs are hard to bribe :D. I might take those Bucks after all, don't like the look of banged up Bulls, despite my initial lean. Anyways GL tonight :shake:
 
Wow. You type better than most native English speakers.

Yes, my university degree is in English education.

"yourself" and "myself" are so often used in place of "you" and "me" now that it's no wonder you've picked it up. In another 20 years or so it'll be so common that almost no one will know the difference.

Anyway, GL on your bets today, bro!
 
And I've never been to US (yet) :( :D

The thing is I've been a huge hoops fan since my childhood days so watching NBA (and later NHL, MLB) kinda stuck through the years. I should be ashamed though, for underperforming since I do plan to take on CPE (Certificate of Proficiency in English) later next year (2007. that is :D).
I'll blame the damn weather for it, and fatigue :spank:

GL.:cheers: :drink:
 
redbearde said:
Wade is doubtful and so are the heat, Charlotte is tired as all hell. New Orleans at Dallas......are you kidding? You really think that hornets team has a chance against a Dallas team that can play D like the pistons and O like the Suns? Portland has an utterly useless bench.

Of those, I like Charlotte the most. But I think they have less than a 5% chance of winning. New Orleans only has a chance if all the Mavericks get food poisoning.

...Just my opinion, and you can tell by my record that I'm wrong more than I'm right. But I don't think I'm wrong about those, bro.
Click to expand...

Well, I was just asking opinion. Might throw a little on the heat, Hey if Wade decides to play at gametime, that ML will quickly drop right? I don't think NO will win either, but at +2100, I could play $25/$525 and still win a bit and a loss wouldn't hurt too much. But I did look later after my post and char played Triple OT before winning. they should and will be tired. Is Indiana a run and gun type offense like GSW or Phx and will they run if given the chance? Same as Orlando, but I know the Heat are tumbling without wade. Prob. won't play Dal. UTah -11, the way they've been playing I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole, but Vegas lays that line and I think Utah will just end up with by 20.
 
lfhlaw said:
Well, I was just asking opinion. Might throw a little on the heat, Hey if Wade decides to play at gametime, that ML will quickly drop right? I don't think NO will win either, but at +2100, I could play $25/$525 and still win a bit and a loss wouldn't hurt too much. But I did look later after my post and char played Triple OT before winning. they should and will be tired. Is Indiana a run and gun type offense like GSW or Phx and will they run if given the chance? Same as Orlando, but I know the Heat are tumbling without wade. Prob. won't play Dal. UTah -11, the way they've been playing I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole, but Vegas lays that line and I think Utah will just end up with by 20.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if Wade plays, the line will surely drop.

Indiana's not really a run and gun style, but they do play some defense, and with Charlotte being tired anyway, I think the kitties may be lucky to crack 75...

I can't lay that much chalk today.
 
Wade is not playing.

Posey is playing.

Jason Williams is not palying - this is key...he was taking up some slack from Wade being out..
 
not a great start...heh. too damn many points in the first of both 7pm games.

Well, I'm extremely tired...been running on the end of my rope for several days now.

talk to you fellers tomorrow.
 
redbearde said:
Yeah, if Wade plays, the line will surely drop.

Indiana's not really a run and gun style, but they do play some defense, and with Charlotte being tired anyway, I think the kitties may be lucky to crack 75...

I can't lay that much chalk today.
Click to expand...

Took the Char ML and Mia ML.
Char ML Hits :wacka wacka: (pretty sure though 2 minutes left).

If Char plays tomorrow or Sunday gotta think fade then.
 
very very nice hit for you, sir. I had no faith in Charlotte. I'm glad someone did.

Gerald Wallace had quite the shoulder injury in that game, and if he's out starting now, that's bigger IMO than Sean May being out...
 
all my MLs lost. I guess THAT was why they were dogs...

alas...

I did go 3-2 on those unders if my math is correct...and I doubled up on one of those...hurray!

later, gentlemen...not sure I'll have a chance to post anymore today...
 
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