NBA ML dogs 12.28

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 46-72, 38.98%, +6.105 units
spreads: 54-43-5, 52.94%, +29.844 units

Suns +125

Ray Allen apparently didn't make the trip to Denver because his wife gave birth. At least the man has his priorities in line. This, in my mind, gives Seattle VERY little chance at a win, but Denver hasn't been quite as dominant without Carmelo...even with Ivy showing up and making even Najera look good. Anyway, gun to my head, I say play the other fucking game. Denver -8 is too much for me. At best it strikes me as about right, and +8 honestly seems like some spread value to me.

So it's probably going to be a no play for me.

I will, however, take the suns at positive numbers Every Damned Day if I can.

'an_horse'

 

[3gamblers]

like the SUNS as well red

 

[redbearde]

Wish I'da gotten an opening number on the ML, but I never do...early spread bets usually hose a number like that. But still, I think the Suns are at least 50/50 against the Mavs. So I artistically divine a positive EV there...

heh. GL to us.

 

[3gamblers]

yeah..SUNs and the OVER here.....

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Dallas playing some D at home this year. Careful...

 

[redbearde]

I already played it. Hey, I'm wrong an awful lot. It won't break my heart to be wrong this time. But if I could bet the Suns +125 at Dallas every day, I would.

GL on your bets tomorrow, BeL.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Value is here...Suns can solidify their place as a LEGIT contender if they can win tomorrow SU.

 

[redbearde]

Utah may be more than worthwhile at Sanant tomorrow...depends on the number. If I can get 2:1, I'll do it.

 

[Supersav]

I like the Suns might play both sides at plus money on matchbook hehe

 

[redbearde]

Value is here...Suns can solidify their place as a LEGIT contender if they can win tomorrow SU.

Totally agree. Or they can shit themselves and leave brown all over the floor...

:smiley_acbe:

 

[redbearde]

I like the Suns might play both sides at plus money on matchbook hehe

There isn't a better play out there than that, bro.

:cheers:

 

[Griff]

keep up the good work redbearde!

 

[driver]

GL. :shake:

 

[Kevnari]

Seattle can score without Ray Allen. If Iverson wasn't on the team, I would've been all over Seattle. I think Im gonna play the ML Denver.
With you on Phx ML and the spread and the over, lol GL :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Jazz +246

I got better than 2:1...go Jazz!

 

[Supersav]

Jazz +252 here im ridin!!!

 

[TightWad]

DEN 1Q -2 is it for me. Nothing more.

 

[DJFadeAway]

i like it!!!

 

[Supersav]

props for the night

Will Jason Terry make or miss his 1st shot attempt
yes +125

Shawn Marion
Yes +105

Nash +110

Dirk +100

Howard +105

all for yes hmm i likes lol lol

 

[tonywho]

RED...I'm big mavs fan here but tonight I'm with you on the Phoenix side, I see my boys going down tonight....gl...:shake:

 

[macdamn]

ML dog record: 44-60 +21.84 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

Hey redbearde, I've got the same card as you tonight

Utah +246
Phoenix +116

Good luck to us man.:shake:

 

[redbearde]

good to know, bro.

let's win tonght, mac!

 

[redbearde]

supersav, those look like good bets to me, bro. GL!

 

[Supersav]

i only played the howard O6.5 boards and terry O22 pts and rebounds props oh and utah ml

 

[Griff]

I just grabbed the Jazz at +300

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Will Jason Terry make or miss his 1st shot attempt
yes +125

Supersav, lol, what the hell does yes refer to? yes he'll make? yes he'll miss?

 

[redbearde]

Jazz/Spurs Under 192 (+114) 2units

betcrimes is a smart man...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

red, I suppose the odds should be telling me which is which, but I'd expect yes to mean he makes it, but I'd think the odds would be weighted that way as well, not paying +125 for it to be made.

OK, I just realised I was somehow thinking of FTs. So the odds would indicate a made shot.

 

[Austintx_05]

Good Luck Red :shake:

 

[Supersav]

I hit both props in the first half gotdamn bet em for 2 units each

 

[Griff]

Just heard a staggering stat for tomorrow's Raptors game redbearde - it appears the Bulls have defeated the Raptors 18 times in a row......

 

[redbearde]

red, I suppose the odds should be telling me which is which, but I'd expect yes to mean he makes it, but I'd think the odds would be weighted that way as well, not paying +125 for it to be made.

OK, I just realised I was somehow thinking of FTs. So the odds would indicate a made shot.

Betcrimes, My comment about you being smart wasn't meant sarcastically...I was talking about that Under bet.

:bow:

Supersav, congrats on those wins. You've been on quite the run with these player props. I'm not much of a prop bettor, but I'd love it if you'd keep pointing out good ones...

griff, that's one helluva run. Are you thinking it's going to continue or end tomorrow?

The Suns/Mavs game was most excellent. Not sure I would design a play with Amare taking the final shot, but the Suns had several opportunities down the stretch to hit a shot, and they didn't. Such is life. I don't like losing, but this is exactly the sort of game I thought it would be. Better than even money on this yields money over the long run, but remember folks, we lose a lot of bets too. Life goes on, and we should have several opportunities tomorrow.

'an_horse'

ML dogs: 46-74, 38.33%, +4.105 units
spreads: 55-43-5, 53.40%, +32.124 units

 

[JPicks]

Well said man.

 

[redbearde]

JPicks, at the end of that game, I felt like I did at the end of the Michigan/tOSU game. It was an excellent game, and I look forward to the next time they play.

:shake:

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Red, I didnt take it in that way. Pity Dirk had to nail that late one to deny you OT.