NBA ML Dogs 12/28-29

[redbearde]

Magic -2.5 (-111)
Wizards +164.6

these are essentially fades of the heat and the nets. Caron Butler played last game - no reason to think he won't this game.

The only others I would think about for MLs are the Bucks and the Nuggets. But the Nugs still haven't played very well away from home, and the warriors DO play well at home........and I'd want more money for taking that one.

The Bucks are still a joke of a team, though they should dominate on the interior. And the Bulls are shuffling the lineup - Gordon's coming off the bench again, apparently. Duhon at the point, Hinrich at SG...................I rather think that'll help them. Still, I sympathize with a Bucks play at 2:1.

GL tonight gentlemen.

 

[Satyr]

GL tonight Red. :shake:

 

[tuck321]

Take a little time and look at the box scores of the Bucks-Denver game and see if anything occurs to you. GL

 

[redbearde]

tuck, why don't you tell me what the fuck you're talking about......because I'm not playing that one.

 

[tuck321]

Not trying to be cryptic. I saw Redd 1-8. I saw
Yi JIe 2-11. I saw Simmons 1-7. Now going back the last 2 years its clear Redd bounces back with big games. Yi on a very short sample seems to Not really sure about Simmons. I am thinking that that terrible shooting is grounds for a ml play first half or game. Have not made a bet yet. Have not used this approach in the past and wanted feedback. Bulls did not shoot that bad vs the Spurs. They just got beat most ways so there really is no bounce factor. Opinion?

 

[tuck321]

Maybe I should add the Buck shoot 49%. This is third in the NBA so a game like that seems like it could easily produce a big bounce the other way.

 

[rod_steel]

BOL RB :cheers:

 

[brewer]

And the Bulls are shuffling the lineup - Gordon's coming off the bench again, apparently. Duhon at the point, Hinrich at SG

:23_11_59:

 

[c.r.e.a.m.]

Goodluck Red!!!

 

[redbearde]

on the road, Milwaukee is shooting 42.4% for 93.6ppg.

not sure I'm buying a bounce back here...especially with the Bulls shaking things up and trying the new lineup. Having the

I'm sorry for my abrupt response. the 20 questions style you've had for the last couple days has been kinda annoying. People look at things differently, and very often to see what you see, you're going to have to tell folks from where you are looking.

I know that I, for one, am quite dense about some things, and I need a schematic to get it.

:shake:

 

[redbearde]

brewer, no shit. Duhon's been one of the reasonably useful folks.

 

[redbearde]

Rod, Cream, thanks and GL to you, too!

 

[redbearde]

1-1 again. made a little. yay. missed out on Denver and Philly, but unfortunately I look for where I think value is more than who I think will win, and I wanted closer to 2:1 on those. alas.

on to Saturday.

I will be looking at

Hawks - thinking of taking a value shot here.
Bullets - still fading the heat...especially after the OT game.
Pistons - MANHANDLED them...I see no reason they won't win by DD tomorrow. besides, BAR is on it...
Bucks - if they're a dog...which I doubt.
Sonics - if they're a dog...which is just silly.

Detroit has the second stingiest defence in the league at 89.5 points per game.
Detroit is second best in the league in field goal percentage against allowing 43.4.
Detroit leads the league in three points made allowed with 5.0 per game.

Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Pistons are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Pistons are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 0 days rest.
Pistons are 12-4-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Indiana.

for the sake of being complete,

Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

but this is the same team that gave up 131 at Minny and lost. Pacers last few wins at home were against the Bullets (no Butler), Philly (I'm actually impressed by this), and Chicago on the 12th. Detroit's on a 7 game win streak. If they try at all, then they should win going away, and I see no reason to think they won't try.

Pistons -4 (-110)

 

[divol]

I think that Bobcats as dogs have good value, expecially with those odds!
Nazr against Howard and Wallace against Lewis are two match ups that Magic will have a hard time with.

 

[redbearde]

bobcats will need to score if they want to win a game on the road against one of the East's better teams. GL if you take em.

 

[redbearde]

neither the Bucks nor sonics are dogs, and laying 8.5 to 9 with Washington is a recipe for me hating myself later.

So I'm currently looking at taking the Hawks. I have an offer up, but I may have to reduce my desire...

 

[redbearde]

in the last hour, 30 cents has fallen off the Hawks ML on MB. Guess I shoulda grabbed the 385 when I saw it. Alas. No bet for me unless it goes back up.

 

[redbearde]

the Celtics/Jazz line has skyrocketed from-3ish to -6ish. That means that one can get over 2:1 on the Jazz at home.

If that keeps going up, it might require a play out of general principle.

 

[redbearde]

crazy. Celtics -6 -126 at MB right now. INSANE.

 

[askias]

I love your methods RB and tail you often, but no way I trust the Jazz in this spot. What have the Jazz shown you to make you think they even have a chance in this game?

 

[redbearde]

well, I don't really think they'll win, and I won't be playing em, but they have been playing real well at home.....

and I'm not so sure the Cs are as good as the hype says they are. I do hope Boston wins tonight to help set up the fade play tomorrow....

 

[askias]

Congrats on the Pistons, I was on them as well. Sorry we missed the Wiz, that one was obvious.

 

[redbearde]

laying 9 isn't obvious in my opinion. The bullets could have just as easily won by 7 as by 27. in any case, I wouldn't have crapped on anyone for making that bet, but it just ain't for me.

similarly, I was hoping this line would be the other way...Boston -2 instead of LAL -2. I was hoping to get a pick at +125ish, but at -2 (-110), I'm not playing that. It's too expensive. I do think the Lakers will win. But it looks like I'll be taking Sunday off. If anything, I'd consider betting the 76ers in Portland....they gotta lose sometime, but my guess is that it won't be tomorrow. The play would be a value shot. But like the Jazz tonight, I gotta think the team has a significant chance at a win before the value shot starts making sense.

GL with whatever you bet.

 

[askias]

Thanks Red. Money is coming in on the LAL pushing the line up to 3 in some places. The Lakers may win, but I think at 4 or more, the Celtics have value as a very live dog.