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NBA ML Dogs 12.27

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 46-71, 39.32%, +7.105 units
spreads: 51-43-5, 51.52%, +23.064 units

Lookin at tomorrow, and this is before the ML numbers are out, off the top of my head, my thoughts are as follows...

Bobcats - no way. The Bullets are very very well-conditioned. Even if you think the B2B is significant, they're both on it. May and Knight are both expected to be out as of now...if this changes, maybe the outlook changes. Honestly, The Bullets chalk looks pretty tastey to me.

Hawks - Cleveland on the road is suspect. Hawks without Josh Smith. Childress should be back, but several others sat out last game and are questionable. The line strikes me as being about right if all the Hawks players are in...Opinions on this one would be welcome. My guess is I won't play it, but one would think after the absolute shellacking the Hawks took from the Pistons they might want to come out and show their fans something this time.

Knicks home to Detroit after the stones had a damned satisfying win last night. I'm not a believer in the Knicks, tho. I think I'll look and see what Killa and BAR say about this one before I consider a move...Situationally a good spot for the Knicks, though. But, perhaps too much rest for them?

The Heat at the Bulls. That's fucking interesting dude...there might be some worthwhile value there. Sure, the bulls are insane at home, but the Heat have been playing well, and I think playing on the 25th will keep them in the flow where while the break might have the bulls come out flat. I can see several angles where this might turn the Heat's way...or at LEAST the Wades will be competitive...Miami is certainly a possible.

76ers at Kings. Philly isn't quite as bad without AI as I would like them to be...There seems to be some disquiet with the Fucking Crybaby in Sacramento. His knee is sore but there's no evidence. If he didn't have the sore pussy rep, well, maybe the idea that he's being a bitch wouldn't cross the team's mind. The point is that there's NO telling what's going through his or the SACK team's minds right now. There may be some value here on the 76ers. It's not like they played poorly tonight...it's just that GSW tends to be shooting 60%+ at home nowadays. If the Kings have a human day tomorrow, which they may very well, then this is a situation where the 76ers could spring a surprise on them...

I ignored the tiny dogs. No reason to bother with value betting there, and one's a Twolves game.:down:

Hornets/Blazers currently offline. Blazers should be favored. Not sure how I could put money on the Hornets right now...I heard the phrase "pargo takes over the point" against Seattle. Oh yeah. PARGO's gonna get it done.

right.

thoughtful comments and criticisms welcome.

'an_horse'
 
Being from Philly, this is the ONLY game I circled the Sixers to win on this road trip.

I will be on PHilly +8 ... I believe line will be 8 at tip time. And I will be on the Philly ML.

GL
 
Not sure I can give aringing endorsement for NYK But Pistons as road chalk have been a good fade for me...

@ Indy laying 3 L 101-90
@ Char laying 4 L 98 -87
@ Miami laying 3.5 W 87-85
@ Philly laying 4 W97-87 this was w/o Webber and AI though
@ Bos laying -1.5 W 101-90

So personally I wouldnt really look at the Boston game cause anything less then -2 is really a PKem in my book . The game @ philly gets thrown out cause 2 stars were missing. The past three I thinK I have faded DET all 3 times and cashed. If they can lose @ Char they can lose in NY where outside of the 1st game agianst Brown IN NY they have struggled recently..... NY has won by 4 and 2 and lost by 1....

NY is inconsistent but they did beat two solid teams in Utah and Chicago last week. The Philly game had to be tough....4th game of the week and 1st away playing shorthanded all week with 2 OT's....

I will be playing NY just not sure it fits your ML criteria...I think BAR would say great getting points but not so much laying it this year...My point of view is also DET was only -7 at home and won by 8 earlier this year where is 5.5 coming from?? The DOG is 12-3 past 15 games Pistons have played....
 
Being from philly, do you think my reasoning is somewhat sound? I do think Philly is a tougher team than the credit they've received. We may get significantly over 3:1 on this...especially after this blowout tonight. The Bullets just cruised after the 1st quarter though...

Rodney Carney played 45 minutes. No one else played over 31. Iggy played 28. I don't see fatigue as an issue tomorrow......especially if they get into a halfcourt game. Then I can almost see philly having a significant advantage.
 
Thanks SN. Whether it fits the ML depends on the number, but my thinking is much like yours. Asking the stones to lay so much on the road against a Knicks team that seems to have some spirit now...is asking a lot. Yet to think the Knicks will pull out the win might be asking a lot too.
 
The Kings fit right into the way the Sixers want to play. This Kings team no longer is the up and down run and gun team of the past, for the simple fact that they are older. The Sixers don't want to get in a run game with ANYONE. They don't have the shooters/scorers to do so. The Kings might try to get out and run on these guys, considering Golden State's success last night and the fact that Philly is b2b. But that simply isn't Sac's game. I see major mismatches in the Sacramento backcourt. Look for a lot of Posting up of Miller tonight. When Philly goes with Iggy and Carney in the line-up, who does Martin guard? Iggy will eat him up inside, and Carney will run him all game, tiring him out, and making him ineffective on the offensive end. Also, and I can't believe I'm saying this, but Dalembert should have some success tonight vs. a slowed-down Brad Miller. Miller is already pretty un-athletic, and on top of that, he is still pretty banged up from his past injury this year.
 
76ers +300 (Cris)

I'd do that one every day...I was concerned it might only be 250...

Atlanta is at 190. I wanted 2:1 to bother with it...besides, there's still much questionability on the injury report. Knicks, EXACT same thing. Even though Starbury is now probable, half the team is still missing...and this one just smells like I should let it be...so I shall.

Trailblazers -8.5 (+117) 2 units
Clippers -8.5 (+112) 2 units
 
One key factor in the hawks game is that they recently signed slavaaaa medvedenko, i expect the line to go to a pick
 
OH! I didn't know that. I better grab Atlanta before the Hawks become huge chalk...mamba has NOTHING on Slavaaaaaaaaaaaa...
 
Some really weird lines and movement redbearde.

Wash down to 5 instead 5.5 @ pinny.
Also Milw (Again) -1 vs Memphis. I figure that Milw would be favored by more. (Trap?)
As for ML Dogs, I kinda think NOK has a chance to win SU vs Portland.
maybe philly today against Sac. (sac has really been struggling)

Thoughts Red Bearde?
 
ML dog record: 43-58 +21.92 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

Three plays for me tonight:

Miami +207
Houston +193 (haha, should have waited on this as it's now at +230)
New Orleans +305

Good luck on your plays red, good health with Portland.:shake:
 
lfhlaw said:
Some really weird lines and movement redbearde.

Wash down to 5 instead 5.5 @ pinny.
Also Milw (Again) -1 vs Memphis. I figure that Milw would be favored by more. (Trap?)
As for ML Dogs, I kinda think NOK has a chance to win SU vs Portland.
maybe philly today against Sac. (sac has really been struggling)

Thoughts Red Bearde?

My thoughts are currently turning homicidal toward the refs in Charlotte...

...right now it's midway through the 3rd, and they've helped the kitties eliminate a HUGE deficit.
 
lfhlaw, one point of clarification...

I sell points. When I got -5.5 +110, the actual line was -4.5 -10something at pinny.

So it moved from -4.5 to -5......for what it's worth.
 
pretty good night. lost the ML, but won all three spreads. YAY.

ML dogs: 46-72, 38.98%, +6.105 units
spreads: 54-43-5, 52.94%, +29.844 units

....really.....can't.............complain.

:cheers:
 
That was a good catch with Houston, mac...since Yao was out, I didn't give them a chance.

:bow:

Only other one was the Knicks...and I considered it. Not sure what steroids got put in the Knicks kibbles since the brawl, but they've been playing inspired ball recently. Especially against the weaker East, we should keep an eye out for them.
 
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