NBA ML Dogs 12/26

[redbearde]

Mavs +135

Dallas is better. Maybe they'll win tonight.

I am seriously considering playing the 76ers.

Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Miami

Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Heat are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia.

Miami hasn't won against the 76ers since 2006, and I don't think they'll have an easy time of it here. Lou Williams and Reggie Evans are on the questionable list, but they haven't missed time with their respective injuries yet.

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/spo...t_tell_the_Sixers_Shaq_isnt_Shaq_anymore.html

Willie Green actually has a swollen pussy (so says an MRI), and his questionable status seems more legitimate to me. Chris Quinn has missed his last two games, and he was expected to miss week....which is rapidly approaching. Nonetheless, he's another legitimate questionable. We shall see.

Miami has the third worst free throw percentage in the league at 70.2.
Miami has the third worst rebounds in the league at 39.6.

Philadelphia is third last in the league in three points made with 4.3 per game.

haven't played it yet...still ruminating.

 

[The Farm]

Easy play for me here.. Took the 3 points..
BOL today red

 

[redbearde]

76ers -3 (about even)

 

[Retburj13]

gl red

miami just plain aint gettin it done

 

[Satyr]

Sixers here too sir. Let's do it.

GL :cheers:

 

[J.C.!!!]

now dallas+4 in my book. why plubic % or what, i miss something?

 

[redbearde]

well, from the contrary to my opinion angle......

there is this sort of thing:

Utah is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Utah is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Jazz are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite.
Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.

and the fact that Utah just, well, they do play very well at home.

here's where I am with it, though.....Utah's played the same shitgame against all opponents for the last month. Yeah, they've spent a lot of time on the road, but they should have played a lot better than they did. They've had a sieve for a defense, and while they shoot a high percentage and get a lot of rebounds, they somehow kept managing to LOSE.

Utah has 2 wins at home this month. vs Seattle and Miami.

Jazz are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Jazz are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Mavericks are 39-15 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog.
Mavericks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Mavericks are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog.

Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Utah
Mavericks are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Mavericks are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.

And the last meeting in Utah on 01/09/2007....

Dallas won 108-105 as a 2.5pt dog.

look familiar?

I'm not saying they will win, but I think I have value on my side (tho obviously I would have had more if I'd waited).

and for the record, I don't believe in reverse line movement conspiracy theories. If Dallas loses tonight, then it's because Utah scored more points than the Mavs. ...It's not because the line moved toward Utah.

:shake:

 

[J.C.!!!]

right now dallas is much better team. plus 4? vs any team i take dallas. way to easy choice

 

[redbearde]

yeah....too bad for us.

Jason Terry. 0 fer 10.

WOW. just wow.

Remarkably...Dallas out-rebounded the Jazz 40-38.

When it was 84-80 in the 4th, and both teams went scoreless for 2.5 minutes, I started laughing at this game. What a joke. If the Mavs play like this tomorrow, then the Cavs will beat em.

...I think they'll play better mind you, but wow. what a pathetic display of supposed defense by the mavs....and BOY did they settle for lousy shots for the last 7 minutes of that game.

It really was pathetic.

 

[B.A.R.]

Dallas outboarded Utah..and lost..incredible

 

[redbearde]

9 of 26 from the 3pt line.

After dirk made 1 of 7 3s in the 4th, you'd think they'd try something else.

but oh no...HEY! SHOULD WE DRIVE FOR THE BUCKET WHILE BOOZER IS ON THE PERIMETER IN DIRK'S FACE?

HELL no.

Let's kick it to Dirk for the contested stupid-ass 3pt'r AGAIN...

 

[redbearde]

Dallas outboarded Utah..and lost..incredible

it really wasn't incredible. Mavs couldn't hit shit from the perimeter, and they kept lobbing it up there praying they'd get the camel through the eye of the needle.

alas no...brick brick brick...

Devean George was the only Mavs player bothering to take the ball to the interior in the 2H. He got the Mavs in the penalty with 8 minutes to go in the 3Q, so what do they do after that?

sit him.

and have dirk and stack shoot outside fade-away jumpers.

some did go in....but not enough. If they motion off the ball and drive to the fucking rim when they have it, they win that game by 10.

watch them do it tomorrow.

still. I'm not complaining. I made a hundo today going 1-1. it really seems to work out for me this ML dog unit being 80% of the spread unit. Hate that I missed out on Washington - I thought Caron would still be out.

:cheers:

 

[askias]

Hey Red, if you don't mind me asking, how did you make a hundo going 1-1?

 

[redbearde]

ML dog unit is less than a spread unit. lost the ML, won the spread, so I won a little.

 

[abcs]

I expected you to be on the hawks last night. You have been one of the smarter guys to eat up those short lines at home.

 

[redbearde]

I stick to MLs for the most part. and I aim more for fading bad teams than riding good teams. Fading the Heat has been fun - especially when they were a pk at ATL. that was some hysterical shit.