NBA ML dogs 12.22

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 44-69, 38.94%, +6.745units
Spreads: 45-36-5, +52.33%, +19.344 units

Fuck May. If Brevin goes, I'm on Charlotte.

Not a believer in GSW on the road...I mean, congrats on your big win over Boston...

The Lakers I could possibly put money on...especially if the number is higher than I expect. Probly won't play the Kobes on the road, tho...

Regarding the Knicks dog...I have 2 units on the Bulls -6.5 (+108). This is a nightmare situation for NYK...not enough guards against the bulls. Curry against Ben Wallace (hahahahhaha)...chandler can't put up 50...

No Twolves games. I never win those. Ever.

76ers +101 is a ML play. I will fade the Celtics without Pierce against any NBA team...and some college teams.
It's going to be a rough stretch for boston, man...I would say philly is BETTER on a neutral floor...

Grizz at Hornets....crap versus crap. At 1.5:1, I'll have to think about it. Til then, I'm going to ignore that game.

...not sure I can form an opinion on the others yet. I'm really freakin tired right now. ...Donbest has Tmac down to doubtful for that game....for tose of you that care about that at this point. Houston's been awfully good with him. 3:1 might just be worth it there. I would not be surprised at all if that game came down to the last possession.

to recap:

76ers +101
Kings +135

Bulls -6.5 (+108) 2 units
76ers pk (+101) 2 units
Rockettes/Spurs under 181.5 (-110) 2 units
 
for my own accounting purposes, I'll put it this way...

add spread play

76ers pk (+101) 2 units

I may lose, and I won't put more than this on it, but I fucking love this play.
 
I think Philly has a good chance of winning this. Seems like since AI left the team and with some of the other guys spreading the ball around, they're more competitive and play a better defense. Pierce drives that Boston team. Thoughts?
Wish the ML were more.
 
Supersav, isn't this like the 3rd time (in a row) you've suggested the the Suns' opponent in a bad spot (in this case B2B off a rungame)?

GL with it if you play it, but I think the phoenix guys aren't likely to let the Wiz swipe this one. If you really think the bullets will compete, then perhaps the over 285 is the play for you...

At least give me some reasoning for why the Suns won't win this time...
 
It's hard to see the Suns losing to the Wiz tonite, I mean if that Denver game didn't get PPD the suns don't have as much rest. But now they are fully rested and dude they are lookin mean. Arenas needs to drop 80 to try and get a W here for the Wizards.
 
lfhlaw, this is one o' those games in my mind...I think you're right - the other guys, especially iggy, are really stepping up for the 76ers, and they've threatened the win against a good team or two (including the Spurs in Sanant) while easily covering, and they've GOT to realize this is a game they very well could win...

I almost hesitate to say they should win, but I really do think that. I too wish the ML was more, but I would be shocked if this didn't turn the corner by the morning to where the Celtics aren't ML dogs (positive, at that) before the /ml numbers come out. In other words, I don't think this line gets better. Boston loses more by losing pierce than Philly loses by dropping Ivy.

just my opinion.
 
BrarStar, totally agree. And Gilbert won't put up 80. I doubt he'll do 30 again on no rest, and you can forget about Haywood being that good again. By the 4th, the Bullets will run out of powder, and the Suns will just be rising.

I think it'll be fairly close for half the game, and then mid 3rd or perhaps early 4th, the Suns take off and the Bullets will fall behind shooting about as well as Cleveland did in the 4th on the 21st........just...really...bad.
 
Gilbert will score 40 and the Suns are gonna be tired from the trip to denver then being snowed in and the fact that wash ended the mavs streak funny shit like that happens. Its worth a half a unit play
 
well, I am going to lay off betting against the Suns until they lose. They may tonight but not going to put real money on it!! GL Supersav. I do think Arenas gets 30 tonight. Easy points on that floor this evening.
 
nice catch Griff! Looks like my inability to predict line moves strikes again...ML is at 122 at pinny.

regarding the bullets...for a spread of +11, I think 570 is more than a tad thin.

...just my opinion.
 
denver.....

PG Allen Iverson
SG JR Smith
SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Eduardo Najera
C Marcus Camby

The only one playing today (unless the denver airport opens) is Najera.

I'll give Sack a try.

Kings +135
 
Rockettes/Spurs under 181.5 (-110) 2 units

looking for a defensive slugfest in San Antonio tonight...
 
Sac has no bench and has had a hard time keepin up with high octane teams. Coming off a b2b and especially with the mess they had last night and today getting to denver.. id be careful
 
Figure Sac will still come out shooting and scoring, but in the end Denver will pull away. hoping Denver's Bench is stronger.
 
Toronto worth a look - Raptors are pissed about losing to Portland 2 weeks back in T.O. and look like a prime upset candidate
 
Wow they said phx has been stuck in denver for a while and should get back home 2 to 3 hrs before tipoff.. might make for an interesting dog
 
ML dog record: 40-56 +18.04 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

For tonight, two plays:

Sacramento +130
Toronto +148

Totally agree with you guys on the Kings. Denver's bench is all that's left of that team right now, LOL.
With Toronto this is mostly a fade of the Blazers as a favorite. They've been favored only one other time this year, against Atlanta at home and they lost that one. Toronto has been playing pretty well without Bosh, they lost their first two without him, but since have won 4 of 5, only losing to Phoenix. They've won 2 of their last 3 on the road. Basically they're playing the best they've played all year. They are on their 3rd in 4 nights so they could be tired but this is a better chance for them to win than tomorrow against the Sonics.

GL tonight everyone:shake:
 
Well I had the philly ML, but took Denver,
but had Wizards ML and the Wizards +11.

Too bad I didn't see that Portland blazers one.
Oh well.. Onto tomorrow.
 
sorry man, maybe that article was right this time..
bunch of dogs won su, happy holidays
 
Supersav, good call. Arenas couldn't miss, and the Bullets scored a lot more than I thought they would (52.6% from 3pt land!). I'm wrong somewheres between 45 and 48% in the spreads - glad someone made money with it.

I was 2-0 ML and 2-2 spreads and making money both ways...obviously not much with the spreads.....heh, but it was a good day.

I'm unclear on what the Bulls' problem was...perhaps the Knicks aren't as shitty as they have appeared to me thus far this year.

The Celtics did better than I thought they would, yet philly still managed the win (by 15). Out of every nba bet I've made this year, I think that has been my favorite. Philly outscored boston in every quarter...Against a good team stacked with talent, without Pierce the Cs will get slaughtered...hell, I like the Knicks against them. Tuesday at Denver may be a 14pt spread...

ML dogs: 46-69, 40%, +9.105 units
spreads: 47-38-5, 52.55%, +19.364 units

that's right. I won .02 units in spreads today. I can retire now.

bigsmile.gif
 
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