NBA ML dogs 11/9-10 - fridays

[redbearde]

Over the last few years, I've noticed, anecdotally only, that on Fridays, the home team tends to win/cover. I actually ran the numbers for as far back as covers had stats last year, and the stats didn't support it. Nonetheless, I'm extremely loathe to take a road team on fridays.

My thinking is this:

On most days, even Sunday afternoon games, folks go to the game as a diversion from what's on their minds otherwise....or as a business event. Hell, most of the time the seats aren't filled until the last 2 or 3 minutes of the game, and it's more of a social event than a sports event.

But fridays, folks who go to the NBA game are really interested in letting loose. The work-week is over, and they are there to see their team win. Winning carries much more weight like at a college football game.

okay, most of that is bullshit. But it might be bullshit with a subconscious reality to it. At any rate, it was marginally supported (in other words - not really) by the stats I gathered, and I just can't shake the idea.

So I really let that shape how I see friday games. Doesn't make me right...I just think to understand why I bet what I do on Friday, that's something someone should know if he's reading my thread. So, now that both of you know...

Pacers @ Bobcats. Pacers are better. If Felton sits again, Pacers are a LOT better. If felton plays, then I likely won't play the spread. Of course, it's number dependant. But Charlotte is trash without their PG. It was reeeeally bad the other night against the 76ers.

Charlotte is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indiana is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Charlotte

Raptors @ 76ers. This is one of those games I would definitely lay off the raptors because of my friday fear. Raptors might compete, but in the end the 76ers should pull it out. I loathe that damn line, tho. 76ers -1....damnit. no play for me.

Hawks @ Celtics. Hawks are better. Just kidding. Cs will roll, but I don't think I want to lay 8 against the Hawks.

more later perhaps...

 

[lifesallover]

Nobody should ever lay money with Jeff McInnis running an offense, it may actually be a mandatory play against McInnis. I'll be staying away from that Raptors game, I have no grasp of that team, and they haven't been playing a lick of defense. With that said they could blow out the 6ers as easily as get blown out. Goodluck tomorrow

 

[abcs]

haha interesting Friday theory.. don't think it has any credit or merit.. but whatever floats your boat. I dont think the hawks match up well at all with KG, Betting against the c's is dangerous right now.

 

[redbearde]

abcs, i agree. regarding the friday thing, do note that I said it isn't really backed by statistics, and I do let that reality influence me.

lifesallover, yeah. looks like there a shot for Felton to play tonight.

http://www.charlotte.com/bobcats/story/352643.html

Felton to sit out against 76ers

RICK BONNELL

rbonnell@charlotteobserver.com

<!-- START /pubsys/production/story/story_assets.comp --> <script language="Javascript"> function PopupPic(sPicURL, sHeight, sWidth) { window.open( "http://media.charlotteobserver.com/static/popup.html?"+sPicURL, "", "resizable=1,HEIGHT=" +sHeight+ ",WIDTH=" +sWidth); } </script> <!-- photo or image available --> <!-- Start: /pubsys/production/story/assets/image_embedded.comp --> AP

Charlotte Bobcats guard Raymond Felton (20) lies on the court after suffering a knee injury during the third quarter of the Bobcats' 115-83 loss to the Phoenix Suns in an NBA basketball game in Charlotte, N.C., Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2007. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)


<!-- End: /pubsys/production/story/assets/image_embedded.comp -->
<!-- no polls to display -->
<!-- END /pubsys/production/story/story_assets.comp -->
PHILADELPHIA --

Charlotte Bobcats point guard Raymond Felton will sit out tonight's game against the Philadelphia 76ers after banging his left knee during the third quarter of Tuesday's home loss to the Phoenix Suns.Felton told the Observer he'd play tonight if it were his call, but that he'd been ordered to sit, after tripping over Phoenix guard Steve Nash. Felton said he hit his kneecap on the court surface, causing the pain and swelling he's experiencing.

The Bobcats likely will start Jeff McInnis in Felton's place. Felton said it's possible the team also will have him sit out Friday's home game against the Indiana Pacers.

I think there's something the team isn't telling us. Either he's totally fine and they play him, or he's not totally fine and they don't play him. Call it a high ankle sprain if you like. But they keep saying he's just fine......we'll see if they play him tonight...

In any event, I think the Pacers are better even if Felton DOES play, so I guess I gotta play them.

very irritated that matchbook is down right now. at least...I can't connect.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Noticed the same thing

I have noticed the exact same thing in the NBA. I find it is easier for the teams to squeek out road wins during the week and on Friday night and Saturday night the team is going to give it its best shot at home.

Also factor in the visiting teams may party it up hard near the end of week Thursdays, and Fridays, which would perhaps have them coming in tired and hungover.

 

[Satyr]

Great thread red

Good luck tonight buddy, may join you on the Pacers. :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

Memphis @ Portland

Over 208 -111

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Memphis's last 23 games
Memphis is second best in the league in three points made with 10.0 per game
Memphis has the third worst defence in the league, allowing 107.7 points per game

Portland is allowing nearly 100ppg, and Memphis is allowing over 107ppg.
Memphis has scored 105 ppg, and Portland has been scoring about 90 (that ain't good, but with Memphis's defense, the blazers shouldn't have the dropoff in the 4th Q they so often have. Honestly I figured this number would be closer to 215, and as long as Portland gets 100, then I'm all but certain this'll cash. Cus I can't see Memphis not getting 110.

we shall see.

 

[redbearde]

Thanks Satyr. GL to you, too.

on the ML, I am considering the Bullets and Grizzlies. But I already have a bet on Portland, and the Bullets...well......Denver should be able to beat them...and I'd prefer having a bit more than 1 and a quarter to back a winless shit team with an injured Gilbachi.

 

[redbearde]

thanks to BAR for the heads up, and I already took the Cs on the spread for Saturday. No sense waiting for ML value when it won't come until all the value's gone.

Celtics +2 (-110)

 

[redbearde]

Some thoughts for Saturday...

I already played the Celtics. It will likely be my only play today. It's old guys vs old guys, and I think this Boston team is far superior position to position.

If they have the drought early like they did against the Bullets, then the Cs will run away with it.

Denver @ Indiana

I don't know what to make of Indiana blowing leads late. Wouldn't shock me to see Denver take out some frustration here....not would it shock me to see the nugs roll over and suck each other off instead of play basketball.

Suns @ Magic

I hoped the Magic would be some sort of significant dog, and then I'd play em. The Suns haven't looked good against anyone except Charlotte. That's hardly a stunning recommendation. Unfortunately, it's damn near a pick em right now, and it's not worth effing with, I think. I do think the Magic will win, but fuggit for playing them.

Raptors @ Bulls

Raps +6 strikes me as a bit high, but they've been playing like shit recently. Bulls are a jumpshooting team, but they play tough defense,
and the raptors can do very well if they can hit their shots at a tolerable clip......but I fear what should be a shootout will turn into a miss-out, and I don't want a piece of that unless Toronto has the kinks worked out. fuggit again.

Memphis @ Utah

The Grizz at 5:1 might be worthwhile...but Utah likes to put pressure on the ball defensively, and omfg the Grizz hate that shit. In the second half last night...Portland held the Grizz to 37 fuckin points. THIRTY-SEVEN. That's a quarter for those pansies, normally......tonight, I expect to see smoething like 102 - 70s for the Jazz. That is...IF the Jazz play tight defense. I think they will, I think Deron Williams will abuse the smaller and younger point guards all night, and I think Mike Miller will get his ass miffed about it and not being able to get a shot off with AK being all over his ass.

so while I'd love to play the value, I just don't see the chance of a win for the dog.

Minny @ Sacramento

Shitfest. fuck them both.

Dallas @ Portland

I think Dallas wins, but likely doesn't cover.......just like they didn't at GSW the other night.

 

[Satyr]

GL Red. I have no idea what to do tonight. I could skip it, not sure yet. GL bro :shake: :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

skipping it is almost never a bad idea...