NBA ML dogs 11/6-11/8

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 6-1, 85.7%, +9.48 units
Spreads: 2-3, 40%, (1.08) units

First off, I like San Antonio tomorrow at damn near a pick. It opened at a pick, and I hate that I missed it, but aside from me thinking the Spurs coaching is better, I think the spurs talent is better, and while Tmac is of course incredible, I think Bowen might be able to contain him just a tad...

It is a damn tough situation to have to play:

11/1 @Utah
11/3 Host Portland
11/5 @ Dallas
11/6 Host San Antonio

...it's more the 3rd in 4 days for Yao's big ass and some veterans' old asses.

At any rate, Spurs -1 (-110)

It's still there at theGreek, and it's been moving to 1.5 elsewhere.

Spurs are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite.
Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Spurs are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Rockets are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rockets are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a home underdog.
Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.

Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

trends are just that...YMMV.

more to come...
 
On it as well..
trx-smly14.gif
 
I don't see a line yet for Phoenix at Charlotte. I can only assume they're waiting on Amare's status. I won't touch this one until I hear about it, too.

He's clearly not the same guy he was last year...that knee is apparently screwing him up again. And even though the Bobcats have a few injured guys from last year, at home I think they just might have some value if this line is stupid-high...

Atlanta @ Brooklyn

Very Likely Play on the Hawks...I dig the chances of the young guys to compete with anyone when they're healthy this year...we'll see what I can get before I make the decision, but I know abcs will like this play...and I'm already tailing him on the Spurs. +3.5 for the Hawks should get me 1.5:1, and I hope the line goes up some...

Denver @ New York

2.5....? fuck. I hoped for a lot more with the Knicks.

Favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

Not sure I want any part of this one, anyway...maybe I can hope for another brawl...

Toronto @ Milwaukee

a win over the bulls who couldn't hit shit at a wastewater treatment plant...so what? I think this line is a joke at -1...-2.5...or -5...

Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Bucks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

also it is the case that the

Underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Raptors -2.5 (-110)
 
Orlando @ Minnesota

I am not laying the chalk here, though I would have great sympathy for doing so...I will not bet Minny until I see them play better than the Celtics played last year. So far, I'm just unimpressed.

LA Clippers @ Chicago

This is a bizarre tossup game to me. I don't understand Chicago's problem with shooting the ball

Clips have won the last 5 of 6...most recently, they won 103-89 on March 20th as 8pt dogs...

I'll likely be playing this one on the ML...I want the upper 200s...more, of course, is better.


Seattle @ Sacramento

Someone's gotta win, right? Wouldn't shock me at ALL to see Seattle win a game. I guess they just can't make these young sonics a fave on the road, but as a short dog, here's another ML play for me.

Underdog is 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Road team is 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Artest is still not eligible...

New Orleans Hornets @ LA Lakers

Hornets are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Lakers are 6-18-1 ATS in their last 25 home games.

I think the lakers eat another loss here. Of course Kobe could just DECIDE to win it, but I'll hope the Hornets can contain him to..oh....I dunno....40, maybe?

heh...on a side note, the over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.
 
Cleveland @ Golden State

I honestly have no idea how anyone decides which of these teams will suck more on a given night. But I would say that this is more than a winnable game for the Warriors. It's essentially a pick now, and I want more value so if I can get 125 or so, I might bother...we'll see.

Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
 
Plays

Spurs -1 (-110)
Raptors -2.5 (-110)

Prospective plays

Hawks ML
Clippers ML
Supersonics ML
Hornets ML
Warriors ML

May not play Warriors ML...not sure. And of course, they're all really depending on the numbers.
 
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="yspsctbg"><td colspan="13" class="ysptblhdr" height="18"> Houston </td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblthbody1" align="right"> <td class="yspdetailttl" align="left" height="18" width="18%"> Name</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">Min</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">FG</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">3Pt</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">FT</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">Off</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">Reb</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">Ast</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">TO</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">Stl</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">Blk</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="6%">PF</td> <td class="yspdetailttl" width="8%">Pts </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> S. Battier</td> <td>32</td> <td>2-6</td> <td>1-3</td> <td>2-2</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>5</td> <td>7 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> C. Hayes</td> <td>25</td> <td>2-4</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>4</td> <td>7</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>1</td> <td>5</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> Y. Ming</td> <td>37</td> <td>9-12</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>3-4</td> <td>2</td> <td>11</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>4</td> <td>21 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> T. McGrady</td> <td>38</td> <td>12-31</td> <td>1-5</td> <td>10-11</td> <td>0</td> <td>3</td> <td>8</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>35 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> R. Alston</td> <td>25</td> <td>3-8</td> <td>2-5</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0</td> <td>5</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> L. Scola</td> <td>24</td> <td>1-4</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>2</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2</td> <td>1</td> <td>2 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> M. James</td> <td>25</td> <td>4-13</td> <td>0-5</td> <td>0-0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>8 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="right"> <td align="left"> B. Wells</td> <td>16</td> <td>1-7</td> <td>0-2</td> <td>2-2</td> <td>3</td> <td>8</td> <td>4</td> <td>3</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>3</td> <td>4 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="right"> <td align="left"> L. Head</td> <td>13</td> <td>3-3</td> <td>1-1</td> <td>2-2</td> <td>0</td> <td>1</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>3</td> <td>9 </td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="center"> <td align="left"> A. Brooks</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="center"> <td align="left"> S. Francis</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="center"> <td align="left"> C. Landry</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="center"> <td align="left"> D. Mutombo</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow2" align="center"> <td align="left"> S. Novak</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysprow1" align="center"> <td align="left"> K. Snyder</td> <td colspan="12">DNP - Coach's Decision</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblbdr3"> <td colspan="13" height="1">
</td> </tr> <tr class="ysptblclbg5" align="right"> <td align="left" height="18"> Totals</td> <td>235</td> <td>37-88</td> <td>5-21</td> <td>19-21</td> <td>11</td> <td>38</td> <td>20</td> <td>10</td> <td>6</td> <td>7</td> <td>23</td> <td>98 </td> </tr> <tr align="right"> <td align="left" height="18"> Percentages:</td> <td> </td> <td>.420</td> <td>.238</td> <td>.905</td> <td> </td> <td colspan="7" align="left">Team Rebounds: 8</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Would take a look at Clippers, may have some good value there with the line at 7. Chicago has not looked good at all.
 
Warriors ML is already negative....hahaha...fuggit.

I have offers up for the Clips, the Hawks, the Sonics, and the Hornets.

wonder if I'll get em matched up...
 
Good thread there captain :D

I'll join you with the Spurs that's for sure, after watching the game in Dallas I have no choice but to pound the Spurs. ;)


GL Red :cheers:
 
I'm leery of the Hawks just because of the PG matchup, it's gonna be bad news. But basically everything else looks good. ML is definitely the play, if anything. I'm on the Bulls, but I think they either win by 20+ or lose, haha. They're so screwed up right now. BOL
 
AKChick said:
good read ~ GL!
Click to expand...

nice view.

;)

Raiders, thanks, GL to you, too.

macdamn, yeah, I'm terrified of the other shoe, though, you know?

sportsfanatic71, nice - let's get some wins tonight!

bets4bucks, I hope it works out for you. Who ya taking a shot on tonight?

abcs, you may be joking, but it wouldn't shock me to see Durant have an incredible game...I hope so, at least. GL tonight.

ATLHawksBW....come on.....stay on the bandwagon, bro.
 
redbearde said:
bets4bucks, I hope it works out for you. Who ya taking a shot on tonight?
Click to expand...


my card looks almost the same as yours

ML's
atl
clips
sea
clev
n.o.

tor-3

i never play this many in one day but i believe all have a chance to win SU

good luck to us :cheers:
 
wow...I was really wrong about the spread plays...just wow.


not throwing myself under the bus for the day...it can still be good with my last two games winning. The Clippers getting it done sure does help. So does the Kings not shooting for shit or bothering to play defense...

wheeeeee...
 
ML dogs: 8-2, 80%, +12.83 units
Spreads: 2-6, 25%, (4.28) units

Good night for MLs; shit time for spreads. And the sonics managed to lose in craptacular fashion...

damnit. Still, I made a smidge, so I guess I should be happy, right?
 
Still, I made a smidge, so I guess I should be happy, right?

WRONG! U GOTTA WIN EM ALL!

Me - :whip:- You
 
shutup steed

seed is senile:36_11_6:


GL Red :cheers:

is it rabbit season yet? :36_11_6:
 
dunna when rabbit season is, but wabbit season is whenever I see one in my yard.....if ever I get a suppressor those lil varmints'll be in trouble.good start for the 76ers. as hoped, Felton hasn't played yet. Should be routine ([tm] by BAR) for the cover......as long as they don't fuck me with sand like Seattle.
 
76ers...routine.:)for tomorrow...I guess I could give a detailed writeup, and i'll probably do so in a little while, but for now...the short version:The pistons are quite good. The bulls suck elephant anus.Stones +1 (-110)
 
Yeah, I was actually irritated that I missed +1.5...but by the time i went from SBRlines to the book, it was +1. alas.
 
Detroit is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Chicago is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS.

Pistons have beaten the Magic, Hawks, and the Heat.
Bulls have lost to the Clippers, Nets, 76ers, and Bucks. In a row.

Some things to consider...

Bulls have shot 37.3% from the field and 28.6% from 3pt land.....and now they face the Pistons defense - Sheed, particularly, has gotten much better this year. Remember who they've lost to...we're not talking about a run of games against the Spurs, the Jazz, and the Rockets, here. We're talking about some teams not so much known for defense like the friggin Bucks...

Bulls have allowed 40.3% from the field and 33.8% from 3pt land. The Pistons have averaged 47.4% and 35.4% respectively. Again, this team played the fuckin Bucks....who couldn't pound shit with their ass cheeks.

9pt faves to the 76ers...LOSS.
8.5pt faves to the Clippers...LOSS.

The Bulls couldn't even win at Milwaukee - the only reason the Bulls were up at halftime was because the Bucks had a stretch of 1 bucket for 16 shots taken. Not to be outdone, the Bulls managed to miss all theirs in that timespan, too...and more. The Bucks pulled away in the 2H, and the Bulls never got back in it. It was a pathetic display.

Now the bulls have to face the Stones. Deng will get his shots as he always does, but he better not shoot like he did in Milwaukee or Chicago has no fuckin chance in the least. Rip and Chauncey will cover Ben and Kirk well enough, and while Ben Wallace is good for some defense, Tyrus Thomas's play is so frenetic that he may look like he's playing for his opposition on any given night. He'll probably end up head first in the floor a few times, and he'll be lucky if his ass isn't wrapped around his ears.

Sheed won't have to worry about Ben Wallace on the offensive end...and losing a little weight can't hurt his chances anywhere. I think Sheed will be able to step out all night and take a fairly open 3. If he hits in the upper 30s%, and I think he'll do better than that, then someone's going to have to rotate over to help, and that will leave rip, chauncey, or Prince open. or, McDyess (or Maxiell or ANYONE ELSE) wholly open under the hoop.

I feel about this one like I did about the Spurs at home versus the Rockets the other night, and I was quite wrong then. But I figured the Pistons would be favored by 4 to 6 in this one, and the line opened at Bulls -1.5.

crazy.

Now go read BAR's thread to see what will actually happen tomorrow instead of what *I* merely *think* will happen.

:shake:
 
oh, the Pistons two covers have been short numbers on the road, and the ATS loss was a longer number at home. For what it's worth...

Pistons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
Pistons are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games.
Pistons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.

Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.

Pistons are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Chicago.
Pistons are 23-11 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
Road team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Note, this line opened with the pistons as an underdog.
 
ML dogs: 8-2, 80%, +12.83 units
Spreads: 3-6, 33.3%, (3.28) units

Thursday plays

Pistons +1 (-110)
Mavs -7.5 (-102)

:smiley_acbe:
 
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