NBA ML Dogs 11.29

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
season: 24-33, 42.11%, +10.195

I will be taking the Spurs tomorrow. I hope I get some semblance of a good number.

spreads: 15-13-2, 50%, +3.224

Warriors -6 (+115)

I also like the Pa-HOE-nix tomorrow.

Comments? Suggestions. Links to excellent spanking movies?

I may also take other ML dogs depending on the numbers. My idle thought of taking the Grizz on general principle would have paid off this eve, but I don't like to bet on general principle when I already have 3 wagers.
 
First glimpse crap card...

Have a feeling when we wakeup the Spurs will probably not even be dogs or it will be like +105....

Call me " Nuts" but I like NJ. EVerything possible is against this team here...4th in 5 nites , west coats trip one day off home to NJ then short trip to Boston. My personal feling was NJ would be flat in the 1st half and play a better 2nd H. They just had abit to big of a mountain to climb....

Just look at like this...Boston was -4 / -4.5 to NYK and got smoked even with the recent slump how is Boston -3 -111??? Celts couldnt beat NY last week why would I believe they can beat a tired NJ squad? Look at Bostons wins all real bad teams. NJ is playing like a bad team but really arent IMO. Just check there wins...

Might give Char a try with Brezec back this team has some big bodies and not crazy about ATL in the post. Think Char owns them as well....

I owuld say thats about all....
 
Personally I am not crazy about the Suns even if TMac sits out cause he asnt done much if anything this year. Its been all about Yao Ming but Snyder's absence is also felt...

GL Red...need some sleep
 
I too like NJ here...NJ in their own house tonight, and then to Boston isn't exactly a long trip......I think your observation about

game, game, open, game, game

scheduling being overvalued is right...and I'm hoping this line rises all night and all day tomorrow. I might hit that ML just before gametime.

New Jersey has got to be itching for an actual WIN, now...This losing streak capped off with a loss to Charlotte must be like choking on a dick to those vets.

Charlotte played fair to fairly well today; they didn't play all that well. -7 for the Nets was simply insane, and the Nets played even worse. Not sure I want to bet on them winning a B2B, though certainly stranger things have happened. We'll see what the line pops open at.
 
How can you not like the Nets? Yep, they have been playing poorly, but the Celts have been much worse!
I like the Bobcats, might have to lock in the line tonite as it is going down....
I am thinking about Houson. Would like to get a few more points though. Seems like everyone is on Phoenix.... Looks like a good fade to me.
GL!
:cheers:
 
GL with the spurs, but I wanted a ML dog. That shit's been bet down so much that there's no way I'll get a positive number.

:angry:
 
ML dog record: 23-36 +3.59 units

For Wednesday I'm going with:

Charlotte +158
Orlando +120
NY Knicks +610

Going back to the well with Charlotte. I think they are a pretty decent young team so I'll take them here again. They're starting to get some production out of May, who had 20 points in 24 minutes last night. One thing I've noticed is Okafur hasn't done much the last couple of games. Anyone know if there's something wrong with him? If not, I'll just assume he's due to bounce back.

Orlando has been playing great ball lately. They now have the best record in the mediocre Eastern Conference after beating Utah the other night. This is a good spot to keep it going. Eventually their road trip will get harder but tonight I'll take my chances with them. For Seattle, Wilcox and Lewis have been inconsistent on the frontline. Howard should be poised to have a big game again here.

The Knicks are my longshot play of the day but here's my reasoning: IMO the Cavs, because they have King James, are about the most overvalued team in the NBA, so I think long term there is value in fading them as heavy favorites. By my count last season they were just 14-7 straight up as 7 point or higher favorites (one of those includes in the Knicks winning at Cleveland as 9 point dogs), and they were 4-2 SU as 10 point or higher favorites. So what this tells me is this team is not 6 to 1 better than anyone. Now with the Knicks you never know what you're going to get, but so far they are a better road team than a home team and have pulled a couple upsets. Also, I think the Cavs miss Larry Hughes and his defense. Definitely this is worth a shot in my ML dog philosphy.

GL tonight everyone:shake:
 
I agree with your reasoning for taking the Knicks ML - worth a small play IMO. GL:cheers:
 
macdamn said:
The Knicks are my longshot play of the day but here's my reasoning: IMO the Cavs, because they have King James, are about the most overvalued team in the NBA, so I think long term there is value in fading them as heavy favorites. By my count last season they were just 14-7 straight up as 7 point or higher favorites (one of those includes in the Knicks winning at Cleveland as 9 point dogs), and they were 4-2 SU as 10 point or higher favorites. So what this tells me is this team is not 6 to 1 better than anyone. Now with the Knicks you never know what you're going to get, but so far they are a better road team than a home team and have pulled a couple upsets. Also, I think the Cavs miss Larry Hughes and his defense. Definitely this is worth a shot in my ML dog philosphy.

GL tonight everyone:shake:
Click to expand...

Hell yeah!money;
 
Nice hit on the Knicks, Mac!

I didn't get my Charlotte play posted, but I did indeed take em. So I'm up .28 units today. I'll take it. Pretty good start for the dogs tonight.
 
Thanks rebearde, thanks mr21:drink:

Yeah it's about time I had some luck on my side, LOL. I'll be looking to fade the Cavs some more this year in selective spots, there may be another +500 or more dog that beats them again yet this year.

We'll see if Orlando can pull it out but it'll be a good night either way thanks to the Knicks.:shake:
 
macdamn said:
Thanks rebearde, thanks mr21:drink:

Yeah it's about time I had some luck on my side, LOL. I'll be looking to fade the Cavs some more this year in selective spots, there may be another +500 or more dog that beats them again yet this year.

We'll see if Orlando can pull it out but it'll be a good night either way thanks to the Knicks.:shake:
Click to expand...


:bow:
 
I am feeling fairly fucked by the refs in the GSW/Pacers game.

At the same time, Indiana has shot incredibly well in the second half. Warriors never could really get out in front by any sizeable amount, and every time GSW got up by 5 or 6, the Pacers would drop a 3. It was uncanny. I think Harrington was 4/5 from 3 in the 3rd quarter.

Anyway, 1-1 both ways tonight.

overall,

ML Dogs: 25-34, 42.37% +10.475 units
spreads: 16-14-2, 50% +3.314 units

Tomorrow I already have the Kobes -5 (+112)

and I will likely leave it at that. I seriously doubt I'm going to get enough value to try the Heat at home...I'll look about 7:30 or so.
 
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