NBA ML Dogs 11.21
- Thread starter redbearde
- Start date
macdamn
Pretty much a regular
ML dog record: 15-26 -0.48 units
I'm with you on the Wiz redbearde. I was lucky to get it last night when it first came out.
Washington +205
Also, a spread play for me, risking one unit on:
Denver -3 (-107)
The Bulls are in the middle of their annual "circus" road trip and so far they're 0-4 on it. For a road weary team, the high altitude in Denver isn't the spot to bounce back. The Nuggets are fresh on two days rest and I think they roll here.
:shake:
I'm with you on the Wiz redbearde. I was lucky to get it last night when it first came out.
Washington +205
Also, a spread play for me, risking one unit on:
Denver -3 (-107)
The Bulls are in the middle of their annual "circus" road trip and so far they're 0-4 on it. For a road weary team, the high altitude in Denver isn't the spot to bounce back. The Nuggets are fresh on two days rest and I think they roll here.
:shake:
macdamn
Pretty much a regular
I'm going to add the Heat too.
Miami +182
There's starting to be some value on Miami now finally. They play at the Spurs on Wednesday so they'll want to come out strong here. This is Jason Williams 3rd game back; he's only going to improve and I think he makes a big difference in there compared to Gary Payton. Even without Shaq, they have a good shot here.
Also I'll be adding Milwaukee when the ML comes out.
Miami +182
There's starting to be some value on Miami now finally. They play at the Spurs on Wednesday so they'll want to come out strong here. This is Jason Williams 3rd game back; he's only going to improve and I think he makes a big difference in there compared to Gary Payton. Even without Shaq, they have a good shot here.
Also I'll be adding Milwaukee when the ML comes out.
macdamn said:
FWIW: I think Miami presents a tremendous amount of value. These lines are way off IMO it seems . Shaq wasnt doing much to help early and they were still laying big numbers. I loaded up on the Heat ML in ATL and might do so here again. I tend to play the spread and add ML for value ...I havent really worked on the card though...
GL Red at 1st glance I tend to like Was ML as well ..
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
SN, thanks. that's good to hear. Love to hear more about Miami. I've been either fading or ignoring them all year so far. I remember last year for damn near 30 games they were reeeeeeeally bad, and while I agree the lines are probably pretty short against the Heat.........they seem to be underperforming enough to still not play them.
Unless Chris Paul rabbit punches Wade in the nuts (he's done it before in college), they're not going to stop him, but Unless Wade gets 50 or 60, I have trouble seeing the Heat competing with Paul's assists and points...Especially on the inside. How are they going to be able to stop Chandler, West? (bout time for him to return), and hell, even Simmons has some moves...
You were certainly right about the Grizz last night. Good call there.
Unless Chris Paul rabbit punches Wade in the nuts (he's done it before in college), they're not going to stop him, but Unless Wade gets 50 or 60, I have trouble seeing the Heat competing with Paul's assists and points...Especially on the inside. How are they going to be able to stop Chandler, West? (bout time for him to return), and hell, even Simmons has some moves...
You were certainly right about the Grizz last night. Good call there.
Red ,
Thanks in regards to Memphis. I strongly felt that was the best dog out there yesterday. However through 3 quarters I was wondering how ORL can continually shoot nearly 50% every game. Then in the final 5 minutes they went ice cold and finished at more reasonable 43%. As I happy I am I would rather be able to say some magic words to get other people involved in the play. Just felt it was the spot were memphis was being devauled abit to much against a team that they had success against . While it ended up close what I would have loved to do is talk everyone on this board OFF of playing Portland last nite. Yeah the blazers led by 8 at half and by 10 with 6 to play in the 3rd Q BUT SA then said okay its time to stop the BS and outscored them by 20 in the final 18 minutes. Zach even played well but ist the sme ole story no #2 option and bad teams like that fade real quick in 4th quarters sort of liek Charlotte tends to. That was a huge play for me but again would feel so much better if I had only gotten a few to see my points about the line being just a little soft.
Okay enough BS...I like the Heat but would probably say the line should be -3. The Hornets have overcome the loss of West so far but they still wil be w/o him here. So doesnt that wash the loss of Shaq out? So how can a team that was -7.5 to Char and won by 9 be laying -5 to the Heat here? At full strength maybe but indications are West will still not play. I remember Paul with the groin shot @ Wake as well..
To be Miami is an unknown still they get JWill back and he is working his ass back into shape. Can Haslem be a consistent presence / Star ? I guess alot of the point is I too faded Miami alot this year cause since the opener they have looked lost. However how can Miami be -3 @ Philly w/o Shaq but catching 5( I played it at 5 now 4.5) against a slightily better team? I thought versus ATL they should have been a PK so maybe cause ATL fought back and pushed OT they feel no need to re-adjust yet...have to think thought that Miam wil be a popular dog play...if its not I then recommend pounding it
NO is just a weird team right now. Chandler was playing well but in his return was a non factor so what do we expect? Hilton Armstrong plays great @ DET in his place and then gets 5 minutes on Sunday...Sunday was all Chris Paul.. I just gotta think Miami has the edge in the post with Zo and Haslem on the glass..hopefully Payton can find that inner "glove" again..not a great play but worth a shot...Char 3-0 is nice but less then impressive...
After looking at that Dal-Wiz game closely again I just feel books are taking the value of situational plays. Dallas is back to playin Dallas Mavs basketball lately . The 4 in 5 spot is troubling but others have overcome it already and its there first run of clustered games. I think -6 to -7 is probably more correct here. However Dallas did log heavy minutes last nite and theer bench this year is weak on paper. The key is Dallas hasnt been in many b-to-b situations and none like this. The 1st time off a loss , the second playing a home and home, so here...?? Wiz havent played well in Dall losing last 4 and lowest line was -6..just dont see enough of a drop from Dallas combined with improvement from Was to think anything different might happen. I guess the Wiz ML is a good play but I am cautious on it. I wont play Dallas here but after looking closer I dont see the value in Wash now other then the situation but the books iMO priced that in. In the end this is not a clear case of that though as it was to me in SA last nite...so just watching the line...
Really even while MIL looks attractive I am not sure it is. The Pacers should have never been +4 in Milwaukee to begin with. However MILW did led by 15 at the half.....If it wasnt a home and home I probably would play IND here as Bucks have stunk on the road outside of the opener they are 1-4 with a buzzer beater @ ATL.
Really a shitty NBA card which means just watch the line look for moves that maybe creat value and focus on some totals..there is always the short week us cappers have to prepare for as well in the Football..
Two early lines I think are fairly off in CFB : Maimi +4.5 also went ML & Texas -12.5 both are very huge plays fpr me...
GL
Thanks in regards to Memphis. I strongly felt that was the best dog out there yesterday. However through 3 quarters I was wondering how ORL can continually shoot nearly 50% every game. Then in the final 5 minutes they went ice cold and finished at more reasonable 43%. As I happy I am I would rather be able to say some magic words to get other people involved in the play. Just felt it was the spot were memphis was being devauled abit to much against a team that they had success against . While it ended up close what I would have loved to do is talk everyone on this board OFF of playing Portland last nite. Yeah the blazers led by 8 at half and by 10 with 6 to play in the 3rd Q BUT SA then said okay its time to stop the BS and outscored them by 20 in the final 18 minutes. Zach even played well but ist the sme ole story no #2 option and bad teams like that fade real quick in 4th quarters sort of liek Charlotte tends to. That was a huge play for me but again would feel so much better if I had only gotten a few to see my points about the line being just a little soft.
Okay enough BS...I like the Heat but would probably say the line should be -3. The Hornets have overcome the loss of West so far but they still wil be w/o him here. So doesnt that wash the loss of Shaq out? So how can a team that was -7.5 to Char and won by 9 be laying -5 to the Heat here? At full strength maybe but indications are West will still not play. I remember Paul with the groin shot @ Wake as well..
To be Miami is an unknown still they get JWill back and he is working his ass back into shape. Can Haslem be a consistent presence / Star ? I guess alot of the point is I too faded Miami alot this year cause since the opener they have looked lost. However how can Miami be -3 @ Philly w/o Shaq but catching 5( I played it at 5 now 4.5) against a slightily better team? I thought versus ATL they should have been a PK so maybe cause ATL fought back and pushed OT they feel no need to re-adjust yet...have to think thought that Miam wil be a popular dog play...if its not I then recommend pounding it
NO is just a weird team right now. Chandler was playing well but in his return was a non factor so what do we expect? Hilton Armstrong plays great @ DET in his place and then gets 5 minutes on Sunday...Sunday was all Chris Paul.. I just gotta think Miami has the edge in the post with Zo and Haslem on the glass..hopefully Payton can find that inner "glove" again..not a great play but worth a shot...Char 3-0 is nice but less then impressive...
After looking at that Dal-Wiz game closely again I just feel books are taking the value of situational plays. Dallas is back to playin Dallas Mavs basketball lately . The 4 in 5 spot is troubling but others have overcome it already and its there first run of clustered games. I think -6 to -7 is probably more correct here. However Dallas did log heavy minutes last nite and theer bench this year is weak on paper. The key is Dallas hasnt been in many b-to-b situations and none like this. The 1st time off a loss , the second playing a home and home, so here...?? Wiz havent played well in Dall losing last 4 and lowest line was -6..just dont see enough of a drop from Dallas combined with improvement from Was to think anything different might happen. I guess the Wiz ML is a good play but I am cautious on it. I wont play Dallas here but after looking closer I dont see the value in Wash now other then the situation but the books iMO priced that in. In the end this is not a clear case of that though as it was to me in SA last nite...so just watching the line...
Really even while MIL looks attractive I am not sure it is. The Pacers should have never been +4 in Milwaukee to begin with. However MILW did led by 15 at the half.....If it wasnt a home and home I probably would play IND here as Bucks have stunk on the road outside of the opener they are 1-4 with a buzzer beater @ ATL.
Really a shitty NBA card which means just watch the line look for moves that maybe creat value and focus on some totals..there is always the short week us cappers have to prepare for as well in the Football..
Two early lines I think are fairly off in CFB : Maimi +4.5 also went ML & Texas -12.5 both are very huge plays fpr me...
GL
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
well, I'm not sure I like that one........I have too much faith in what I saw Shavlik never do at Duke. and I'm concerned that Webber won't play, and without AI, without Webber.....this should be a hysterical game. I want to see Shavlik versus Sheed.
That's going to be funny...
That's going to be funny...
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
GL today, like the plays. And just made a play on the over hornets/heat but didn't realize West was playing.. oh well
West could certainly reappear here but this is what I read yesterday:
The Hornets are listing David West as doubtful for Tuesday's game, according to the Times-Picayune. He has an elbow injury that continues to limit his ability to extend his middle and pinky fingers. It's not clear when he will return, but don't expect him to be back in action Tuesday.
RJ returned last nite and it meant what in the end for NJ? IMO West at less then 100% returning is not a positive for the Hornets.
As for Philly well again its tough to play these sometimes but these are the spots I like to gamble on. Most times especially in the 1st H of the season teams tend to rise up w/o a star player(philly did it a few times last season ). We have seen Charlotte win 3 straight w/o West . We have seen LAL rise up w/o Kobe. There are other examples but I cant run them off at the top off my head.
Would it be suprising to suddenly see CWebbs back loosen up now that AI is OUT?? Philly still has Iguadola (very Lamar Odom-ish) , Korver , Dalembert . Hopefully Steven Hunter brusied vagina ...I mean leg is okay. Willie Greene will benefit IMO from extra minutes....
Scary numbers ..Philly shots 46.4% on 79 shots a game but take out Webb and AI you get back 36 shots whioch are made at a 40%clip. I love the stuff about Philly being a team and AI shots 23 of the 79 shots they take on a given nite...sort of meaningless but the rest of the team shots 50% besides the two big names. I wouldnt mind seeing Hunter and dalembert get some more high percentage look sand have Korver throw up 23 shots tonite...Randolph did have 8 in 19 minutes (lol)
Actually I know another situation ..The pistons in LAL w/o Rip Hamilton..I guess in the end I feel if DET was so easy they would take it OFF the board.
The Hornets are listing David West as doubtful for Tuesday's game, according to the Times-Picayune. He has an elbow injury that continues to limit his ability to extend his middle and pinky fingers. It's not clear when he will return, but don't expect him to be back in action Tuesday.
RJ returned last nite and it meant what in the end for NJ? IMO West at less then 100% returning is not a positive for the Hornets.
As for Philly well again its tough to play these sometimes but these are the spots I like to gamble on. Most times especially in the 1st H of the season teams tend to rise up w/o a star player(philly did it a few times last season ). We have seen Charlotte win 3 straight w/o West . We have seen LAL rise up w/o Kobe. There are other examples but I cant run them off at the top off my head.
Would it be suprising to suddenly see CWebbs back loosen up now that AI is OUT?? Philly still has Iguadola (very Lamar Odom-ish) , Korver , Dalembert . Hopefully Steven Hunter brusied vagina ...I mean leg is okay. Willie Greene will benefit IMO from extra minutes....
Scary numbers ..Philly shots 46.4% on 79 shots a game but take out Webb and AI you get back 36 shots whioch are made at a 40%clip. I love the stuff about Philly being a team and AI shots 23 of the 79 shots they take on a given nite...sort of meaningless but the rest of the team shots 50% besides the two big names. I wouldnt mind seeing Hunter and dalembert get some more high percentage look sand have Korver throw up 23 shots tonite...Randolph did have 8 in 19 minutes (lol)
Actually I know another situation ..The pistons in LAL w/o Rip Hamilton..I guess in the end I feel if DET was so easy they would take it OFF the board.
Popcorn Light
NHL Puck Buster
:smiley_acbe:
+166 at home I have to try and that. I would say those guys wanna show hey besides AI we can play this game too... some guy will have a career type nite here IMO...
Really this turned out to be a poor ML card IMO...
Miami looks must attractive to me with Philly in second.....they are far from strong plays....far from solid plays actually...had hoped Maimi held 4.5...doesnt look likely now..
I just think alot of has been taken out of Was and Mil as value plays the way I see it they should be higher but Wiz are in such a good spot....part of me wants to lay -4.5 with Dallas though...
Wish GL tonite but there really is nt much I like yet bewteen this and CBB I have 20 plays...good news is I started 2-0 hitting the DePaul Over and OKL 2nd H over.....so who knows
Really this turned out to be a poor ML card IMO...
Miami looks must attractive to me with Philly in second.....they are far from strong plays....far from solid plays actually...had hoped Maimi held 4.5...doesnt look likely now..
I just think alot of has been taken out of Was and Mil as value plays the way I see it they should be higher but Wiz are in such a good spot....part of me wants to lay -4.5 with Dallas though...
Wish GL tonite but there really is nt much I like yet bewteen this and CBB I have 20 plays...good news is I started 2-0 hitting the DePaul Over and OKL 2nd H over.....so who knows
