NBA ML dogs 1.31

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 62-107, 36.69%, +7.01 units
Spreads: 99-105-12, 45.83% +.34 units

I'm tired of writing shit up right now. I'll probably be more into it tomorrow, but as much as I liked that Milwaukee game yesterday...oh...my....god....did I miss it.

Pistons pk -110
Bucks/Magic Under 195.5 -110
Clippers -3 (-105)

and I'm lookin at a few ML dogs...

Notably

Wizards
Warriors
Knicks
76ers
 
You didnt miss it. Bucks just suck. I looked back at it and really it was hard to pin a line on that game. The 8 seemed high with some Miami injuries but I think generally to much was being made of that. Bucks were getting 10 pts to bad west coast teams probably should have been about the same even with Mo Williams back...the scary sign was the line not budging when Shaq and JWill were announced out...

It happens. I know very well how it feels like wasted effort.

I cant take that Under cause even though I feel its a little high . If ORL cant break 100 here it aint ever happening...like fading NJN again and no opinion on that late game though I felt it was a bit high at 3.

With Jamison out like the 4.5 not sure about the ML , Atlanta shouldnt be favored but GSW 1-10 on backends SU , like NYK and like Philly +6.5 ...

Good Luck...to many games to sift through
 
I think Orlando may well not break 100 again this year. Maybe against the Bullets in a loss 140-101.....maybe. For some reason, Orlando's not playing defense anymore...and I'm not talking about blocking shots or steals. It's all about making a guy adjust his shot, getting a hand in the passing lanes.....they're not doing that right now. The bucks should be able to drive to the bucket all night. ......should. sheesh.

Nets first game home off a long tough road trip...yeah. Go Pistons.

Honestly, as the numbers go I think Clips -3 is a tad high, too. but with the Bulls' performances on the road, I think a point or two shaved is appropriate. They're only not the worst on the road because the Grizz are still considered to be in the league...anyway, I honestly figure on a 13-15pt win, at least.

I had forgotten about Jamison...still, the value is getting asinine.

I'm just waiting on lines for the ML dogs...probably play much closer to gametime.
 
Hey Red , if you can figure Orlando please feel free to let me in on it. Seriously this team is consistently inconsistent. Actually they are a good dog and often overvalued favorite...so basicallyplay the DOG in Magic games....though here Milw is a tough sell. The Wash and Dallas games are scary. BTW I am big believer defense is not blocked shots and steals its like you said adjusting shots making life tough for the offensive player. Milw has taken three steps back on defense and ORL has scored 00+ in past meetings at home...I had that line @ 193 but it reallys comes down to who competitive the game is..

With the Wash game its two things : Jamisons absence which means minutes for Hayes and the return of TJ Ford to Tor which looking at his pratice work is meaningless.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...rnational/?page=rss&id=..wspt-raptors-side-29

I do like the points but tough spot to get a win when your shorthanded and playing a team who hasnt played since Sat. Yourself off a tough win .

The Clippers are playing well and really nothing has improved in regards to Chi road play. Concerned that its the big game here with the 1st game of the trip...get off on the right foot. I am going to try and stick to handicapping which means if I dont like a line pass instead of gambling. When I gamble I lose... Bulls never seem to have much value away cause they struggle to win and are either small favs or small dogs<3 pts.
My head is spinning looking at these damn games
 
I kinda had orlando figured recently...kinda. They've played abominably, and they even lost both of a home and home to Atlanta. But the Hawks shooting so well wasn't a function of the Hawks getting good shots - it was a function of the Magic giving them away precisely how you say. They're not playing tolerable defense at all...and on top of that they aren't shooting all that well either. I think at almost 4:1, there's great value in the MILK ML...doesn't mean I really think they're likely to win.......

having said all that, given my recent performance, you might want to bet your house on the Magic chalk...
 
76ers +240
Knicks +245

May not play Washington...though I'm seeing that number get higher and higher...

Milwaukee at 4:1.......that would look real damned good.
 
We have all struggled past week or so , no biggie.

Looking at the past 4 uptempo teams in Orl we saw them allow 111,114,117 and 103 vs Dallas , Wash , GSW and Pho.Looking at past meetings they have all been high scoring outside of maybe 1. Milw allowing 99-115 away recently...

For me I just cant play under here even though I agree to an extent.

Remember what I was saying about the UNDERDOG in Magic games? Quick look had the DOG in ORL games winning ATS @ 30-13-1 clip. That push was closer to a win then loss meaning no way anyone with the fav. You either Won or Pushed the dog though (vsLAC).

So with everyone fading Milw after last nites effort and Orl stinking up the joint and not playing defense....maybe just maybe you are on to something...I am gonna go flip a coin and find out...thats my new capping tool...<!-- / message -->
 
Let me know how The Coin System works out...

I'll be watching it closely.

an_wink.gif
 
I like the Bucks again here. Two factors:

1. They lost by 30+ last night, creating some inflation in todays line.
2. Mil 7-2 ATS agains +.500 teams, althought to call Orlando that right now is iffy.
 
smh, I too like the bucks......a lot more than I should is what I fear.

convince me the bucks can win.....or that the magic won't care (again)...
 
The coin said play the Bucks...flipped 100 times and the Bucks were tails and it came up 50 times...so we have a 50/50 chance of Milw cashing...I like those odds.....

Underdog in Magic games 29-15-1 or 30-15 depending on your line vs LAC. That tells me there is a great chance even vs MILW the Magic wont cover!

Yes , the coin commenst were a JOKE....do nottake them serious...Red will laugh at it hopefully everyone else realizes its a JOKE....
 
interesting. the money on the Bullets has dropped to here:

Bullets +176
Raptors -178

I was thinking +200 was appropriate, so no play on the Bullets for me.
 
redbearde said:
76ers +240
Knicks +245

May not play Washington...though I'm seeing that number get higher and higher...

Milwaukee at 4:1.......that would look real damned good.
Click to expand...

Really like the Knicks pick, besides the whole "revenge" angle the Knicks for some reason play very well on Wednesday, I think for the season they are 10-3 ATS on Wednesdays. Dumb angle I know, but it has payed off so far this season. Then there is Charlotte, just when you think they are playing well (usually after an unexpected win) they come out flat in the game that follows.
 
Throwback420 said:
you like the WIZ ?
Click to expand...

Yes, but I won't be playing them at 175. At 2:1, yes.

I thought the Bullets played pretty damned well last night without Jamison, and there's no reason in my mind that they wouldn't do it against the Raptors too. Indeed, I would say the Stones are significantly better than the raptors, and in this case the performances are similar enough to warrant consideration for the bullets.

'an_horse'
 
I think 'C.T.G' could throw a team together and open up a can a whoop ass on these guys. They stink so damn bad, I don't know whether to laugh or cry...
 
While the Bucks showed an enormous amount of SUCK this eve, my faith in them wasn't entirely misplaced....they showed some signs of life in the second half by cutting it to a 14pt deficit...and then again in the 4th by cutting it to 13. To win a big dog like that, you really need to have a full-game performance instead of a 1.5qtr performance...

The under was perfect, though. mid 190s was ridiculous. If the game was 80s-80s (or even 90s to 90s), which was what I was figuring on, I still think the Bucks would have had a good shot at winning. In any event, it was the 1 loss in spreads in a 4-1 night.

As far as the ML dogs, well, the Knicks competed until the 4th...and I would play that one again. ...as well as fading the Hornets with Paul in his first game back (though I didn't know about that - whoops).

The warrirors...well......Atlanta's been shooting lights out the last few games. There might be some quality live dog spots for em here soon. GSW still isn't playing defense. ...At all. Bad bet at those slim odds, really. Bad redbearde.

As far as the Lakers...well, thanks Kobe. =)

And The Clippers weren't quite as dominant as I expected letting the Bulls back in to tie it late in the 4th...then their defense came alive. I honeslty questioned whether the Bulls would hit 80. I figured on a 95-78 sort of score. In any event, the Clips pulled it out, and it wasn't a lucky ass cover. =)

Fading the Nets on their first at home after the long west road trip.....? That was seriously never in question. That BAR is one smart cookie...

good day finally.

ML dogs: 63-110, 36.42%, +6.41 units
Spreads: 103-106-12, 46.61%, +3.34 units
 
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