NBA ML Dogs 1.30 - MILK

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 62-106, 36.9%, +8.01 units
Spreads: 99-102-11, 46.7%, +4.65 units

Pistons/Bullets Over 203 (-110) 2 units

BAR is smarter than me.

Here's one I'm not seeing too many folks talk about.

MILK @ Heat

Alright, Mo Williams is back, and this is his second game. Even without the questionable state of Miami's crew, I like the points here. Seeing this:

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports_basketball_heat/2007/01/left_out.html

made me think I might have a good shot at the outright win, too.

-- Dwyane Wade ended practice by taking treatment on a chronically sore left knee.

-- Shaquille O'Neal missed the latter stages of practice with a pulled muscle in his left calf.

-- Jason Williams sat out with an inflammation in his left foot and then underwent tests for a lower-abdominal strain, which came back negative.

But it wasn't just left at that.

-- Gary Payton was told to stay home because of an upper-respiratory infection the team believes might be contagious.

-- Alonzo Mourning, who missed Friday's loss in New York with flu symptoms, worked by himself on the side.

-- And the team remains without guard Robert Hite, who is on a team-mandated leave of absence following a DUI arrest, and forward Wayne Simien, whose complications from a Salmonella infection again have him off the practice court.

That left the Heat with only eight players able to complete Monday's session.

The ailments could leave the Heat with rookie Chris Quinn as the lone available point guard Tuesday against visiting Milwaukee and Michael Doleac as the lone center capable of playing significant minutes.

Interim coach Ron Rothstein said Dorell Wright worked at point guard Monday and forward Antoine Walker could be given additional ballhandling responsibilities.

And so, again, we howl into the wind: Why not another point guard? And why not now?

Now, take a look at the recent history.

of note:
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

conversely:
The home team has won and covered the last 3 meetings.
Miami is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

That one Miami lost was the last time they played in December when Milwaukee was favored by 3 and they won by 26.

This is also the Heat's first game home off a 3 game road trip when they got squeaked out of a win twice, AND the Knicks just laid the wood...

:spank:

Anyway, I like this one a lot, so I've got

Bucks +325 (wsex)
Bucks +8 (-104)

GL to you folks tonight!

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[redbearde]

also....

SO not scared of Kobe being out...

Lakers & Knicks Over 204 (-107)

 

[Satyr]

On the over in MSG with you, also you make a strong case with your Milk pick, I might take it myself. :shake: :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

well, as you can see.....my record speaks for itself. So don't take a play cus I make a case for it...lol.

in regards to the Lakers & Knicks...

The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games at home

Both teams are top 10 in scoring and bottom 10 in scoring defense.

Unlike many top notch scorers, Kobe can actually play some defense. AND, looking back to the first couple games when Kobe wasn't playing, the Lakers would never fall into the Watch Kobe Perform offense which is often the downfall of the team...

Also, as has been noted with anecdotal observations, it seems to many of us that a team without its star for some reason actually performs fairly well, at least in the first game without him.

GL tonight gentlemen.

 

[smh212]

Gl tonight Red. On the Bucks as well, really like this spot for them.

 

[redbearde]

Thanks smh...more injury news would be great, but we may not see any til gametime.

GL to us, bro!

 

[SportsNut]

Red ,

I would expect either Willaims or Payton to play. With Williams he is less then 100% but has been playing through this past few games. Payton has a damn bad cold. Upper respitory infection? Come on with that crap. Get some antibotics and GO...

Shaq is more about being careful with him on back to backs for the future. Mourning sat out 1 game and returned on Sat or Sunday whenever the last game was. I think they are making way to much of minor injuries for Miami.

If neither PG played I would be shocked. It only means you get a heavy dose of Antoine Walker playing Point Forward like he did in the Boston days. Quinn gets plying time as well. I just dont think both guys miss...

I agree on the side regardless. GL

 

[Satyr]

let's do it!!! :cheers:

 

[redbearde]

SN, yeah, I'm not basing my play on the injuries. It would just be icing on the cake.

:beer:

 

[DJFadeAway]

let's get this buckz money tonight!

 

[redbearde]

Satyr, good luck to YOU!

:beer:

 

[Satyr]

thanks man :cheers:

 

[johnci]

Red, if you want to add, there is $3 worth of +340 at Matchbook

 

[Troutman]

Like Mil was thinking about how the heat matchup...Hopefully Mil doesnt come out flat.

 

[SportsNut]

SN, yeah, I'm not basing my play on the injuries. It would just be icing on the cake.

:beer:

Kinda of figured that but I think some others were. Agreed...hope you hit that payday

 

[redbearde]

Red, if you want to add, there is $3 worth of +340 at Matchbook

heh heh heh...thanks, but I consistently have to ignore the $1, $3, and other useless bets people like to throw out there...

What happens is when I make may wager at, say, +325, I get that $3 at 340, and then the rest of my wager fills up on down the line. Sometimes I'll say I have +150, but what I actually have is more like +150.986 because of the dollar here and there...

when I made my wager at wsex, there actually wasn't enough money offered on the side I wanted at matchbook to fill up my bet.

:shake:

 

[Satyr]

I was considering the Bucks last night when I saw the lines, and redbearde's post (with the article) pushed me over the edge. I don't think anyone based his play solely on the injuries.

 

[redbearde]

this is not a chase. I've watched the Heat slow down in second halves, especially with huge leads before.

2H Bucks -3.5 (-110) 2 units

I am...more than shocked...by what I'm seeing in Miami. Perhaps the Bucks will wake the fuck up in the 2nd......or just as good, the Heat let them back in to win by 15 or 20.

 

[redbearde]

I am also dumbfounded by how poorly the pistons are playing...

and where the fuck did this Bullets defense come from?

???

 

[Satyr]

bad night for us man

 

[redbearde]

sure looks that way.

 

[redbearde]

there are days......sheesh.

ML dogs: 62-107, 36.69%, +7.01 units
Spreads: 99-105-12, 45.83% +.34 units

feelings of inadequacy abound...