NBA ML Dogs 1.3

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 48-84, 36.36%, -2.595 units
Spreads: 61-48-7, 52.59% +34.604 units

Boy did the Clippers collapse in the second half last night.

Tonight, I'm looking for the Warriors to have their game run on them. And I think the Warriors will run it better. If Mike Miller keeps shooting 67%, I'll be toast, but I kinda doubt that'll happen. Should be a high scoring game, but I'm not sure it'll go over 215. You folks riding that Memphis over streak, be wary tonight. It may hit, but the totals have finally gotten up to where they should be for a running Grizz team, so don't act like this is in the 180s anymore.

Warriors +178

Portland has no bench. At all. I like damn near anyone at Portland at 2:1. Unfortunately, I missed out on 10 cents...so instead of 205, I get

Knicks +195

I also have some spread chalk on

Clippers -3 (+109) 2 units

No faith in the Heat without Wade. I have less than that if Jason Williams isn't playing either. Last game they declared his problem exhaustion. Donbest has him listed with a knee injury. Without him, the Heat won't have any catalyst. They've still got a couple role players like Posey, Haslem, and Zo, but that's not enough in the NBA.

I'm riding this road trip with the Clippers. I expect them to win their next few games, and situationally the really need to win these road games. The clips are much better than their performances against frankly better Western Conference teams...I think last night was a fluke.

GL tonight fellas.

plays recap

Warriors +178
Knicks +195
Clippers -3 (+109) 2 units
Bullets -6 (+120) 2 units
Suns -8 (+123) 2 units
 
damn bearde i was leaning Heat cuz the clippers just suck especially on the road. Dont lay points with these jerks buddy. How bout the T-wolves
 
i don't play twolves games. I always lose my bet on them. ALWAYS.

Besides, you think the Spurs won't make a significant showing off a loss?

Don't let me talk you off a play on the Heat. If you haven't noticed, I don't know shit. It is merely my opinion that the Heat are worse at home right now than the clips are on the road.

:shake:
 
Wizards -6 (+120) 2 units

Only thing that concerns me is Bogut out-rebounding the entire Bullets squad.

I fully expect an excellent shooting performance in Washington. The over may get crushed tonight, but MILK has had some trouble getting into it on the road.

GL tonight Gentlemen.
 
I dont mean to laugh but it was funny reading damn I missed 205 so settled for 195....then I check and see +240....it happens to all of us!

Any thought to waiting? Serious question though I have found over time its simply better to wait. The ones that move against you tend to win anyway and the ones that you feel like wow, I am smart getting such a good number tend to lose! Like selling NO's early yesterday you could have done much better had yo waited....just an observation.....

I like the Clipper play here ...an odd 8 of 13 FTs (career 83%)from Maggette did us in.

I feel your correct with the Warrior/grizz total especially due to the fact GS is basically an 8 man rotation. The big concern for GS is being shorthanded and playing Baron Davis 48 minutes(even Pietrus inconsistent after playing the nite before)!! He has not played well in backends specifically after playing 40+ the previous nite and recently neither has GS...dont really like Mem -4 but situationally it might be attractive....Great to see he put up 25 shots and had to ice his whole body afterwards..really nothing new for NBAer though...

fading Portland a favs has been lucrative to date...hopefully NY doesnt ruin the gravy train!

BOL tonite and like Wash but its one spot I would prefer best available line due to a dinged up Wiz squad and both meetings being decided in the 4th quarter this season
 
I dont mean to laugh but it was funny reading damn I missed 205 so settled for 195....then I check and see +240....it happens to all of us!

feel free to laugh, dude. It's funny.

I do wait on some of them, but only when I have a strong inkling that it's going to go my way. See, if I had waited on the Knicks it would be down to 150 (or less) now. If it goes up much more, I'll just hit again and treat it as a completely separate bet.

:shake:
 
U really think our Knicks win tonight? I was gon throw 50 dollars on it but ill wait since its a late game and see how my props do
 
I hear ya Red, its a big guessing game. I guess my point was though if it went down to 150 would you even want to be on NY? Sort of why I decided to wait more often then not even with spreads. You hook yourself into a quick decision and sometimes its one you would had not made seeing the whole picture. Like do you like GS as much now thats it +158?

If you have NYK @ +200 and it closes @ +150 then they lose whats the point really. Seems like when it runs in your face so to speak it tends to not matter like NO yesterday.

Even with LAC I have that line @ -4 comes out soft at -2 so I have to play it now. You might have been better served to wait to sell it...

Just trying to figure the best angle...I could be mistaken..
 
rumor has it that Haywood's going to play. Last I heard he was questionable, but this lists him as probable.

Etan Thomas still out, so I'll have to suffer more of Booth's ineptitude.
 
SportsNut said:
I hear ya Red, its a big guessing game. I guess my point was though if it went down to 150 would you even want to be on NY? Sort of why I decided to wait more often then not even with spreads. You hook yourself into a quick decision and sometimes its one you would had not made seeing the whole picture. Like do you like GS as much now thats it +158?
Click to expand...

I don't think line moves indicate likelihood of a win. It's a different thought process with MLs. If a line moves from 200 to 250, that's a significant increase in value. If it moves to 150, then it's a significant decrease.
The team and chance of winning stays the same. The perceived EV goes up and down with the line. So when it goes from 200 to 150, you're damned right I like that a lot less. When it goes from 200 to 250, I like it more. Occasionally I'll even buy it again.

...very occasionally.

supersav, I thought your knicks would be competitive last night, and this is a game I absolutely think they can win.
 
now THAT would be a very nice addition. Q's shooting would help relieve some of the double teaming folks are giving Curry.
 
I didnt mean that way...that it was indicative of the outcome of the game. What I am saying opening line / closing line the outcomes dont vary much. If you play it at the closing line chances are you would win had you played the opening line which is why you sell points cause 1 or 2 doesnt really mean much.

Now what I am saying really is if NYK floated around 150 all day would you still have been interested(and you didnt see 205)? I am thinking probably not cause the value was taken out of it to a degree. So your making a decision based on false value....by gametime(or simply later in the day) that price has changed....and I am saying I would rather have the line go in my face and get worse cause if there was value in it originally then techinically if the price goes up there has to be more value now..so what people are betting isnt what concerns me if I have faith in my analysis more my decision based on something that isnt "true"...like thinking a total has value @ 188 but by tip its 191 essentially sucking the value out...

Did I make sense?

Like I saying I owuld lay -7 but not -9...where you betting originally thinking said team would by 8? of course not so thats sort of what I am trying to say
 
I knew I left out something today:

Jason Williams....in back to back games he gets held out on occassion because of his knee. Whatever idiot reported( I mean reporter) he sat out vs Orlando cause of fatigue should get smacked around abit....it wasnt the first time they rested White Chocolate..just check his profile sometimes even 2 days later he is limited...he was off 38 minutes vs NJ! Dummies! not u guys the damn media! BOL....Mobley hyperextended his elbow last nite and remains uncertain.!
 
Suns -8 (+123) 2 units

SN, i'll get back to you later. Choir practice...probly be after the games.

DuY, thanks for the heads up...methinks I won't add more at -5.5.

GL tonight.
 
SportsNut said:
Now what I am saying really is if NYK floated around 150 all day would you still have been interested(and you didnt see 205)?
Click to expand...

No I would not.

SportsNut said:
I am thinking probably not cause the value was taken out of it to a degree.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

SportsNut said:
So your making a decision based on false value....
Click to expand...

What is false value about a line at +250 having value but not having value at +150?

I may have a false perception of the team I am betting's chances of winning, but Knicks +250 is undeniably more value than Knicks +150 for the same outcome.

SportsNut said:
by gametime(or simply later in the day) that price has changed....and I am saying I would rather have the line go in my face and get worse cause if there was value in it originally then techinically if the price goes up there has to be more value now..so what people are betting isnt what concerns me if I have faith in my analysis more my decision based on something that isnt "true"...like thinking a total has value @ 188 but by tip its 191 essentially sucking the value out...

Did I make sense?

Like I saying I owuld lay -7 but not -9...where you betting originally thinking said team would by 8? of course not so thats sort of what I am trying to say
Click to expand...

Okay, you're thinking in terms of a team's chances of winning. That's demonstrated by your comparisons to totals and spreads. The comparisons don't work because spread and total changes are differences in outcome of the bet. O191 (-110) would be worse Expected Value than O190 (-110). The value difference between 191 and 192 might be minimal at the same juice, but the win or loss probability of the wager is changed however slightly.

With the ML the outcome stays the same; the win or loss probability stays the same no matter what the line does.

Say, for instance, that we have a perceived likelihood of a win at 35%.

If the line is at +150 and I make that bet 100 times, then at 35% chance of winning I win 35 of those and I will lose money. If the line is at +250, then I will make money.

so the line moving against me may very well remove it from my radar screen as having value in it. The fact that it is still at positive numbers is not important if it does not have ENOUGH positivity in it.

If that's not helpful, either I am not being clear enough, or I don't understand your question.
 
fuck you Mike Miller. Fuck you and your little pussy dog haircut too.

I can't believe that shit. He hits 33 pts off 9/12 3pt shooting, and that fucking announcer thinks REBOUNDING won this game for the Grizz? Is he kidding? 55.8% from the field and 54.5% from 3pt for the team, and it was

rebounding

that won the game for the Grizz.

Sure.

It was a spectacular game, really, and Mike Miller put forth one helluva an effort. I just hate having losing days. Azubuike had a damn fine game, and he's looking like he could be a solid contributor in the NBA.

Glory is on HDNetMovies...kinda puts a losing day in perspective. Go Knicks.

I might have the Hornets ML tomorrow. Depends on how high it goes...and if Billups is still out.
 
We are basically in tune. I know its somewhat tough for us both to clarify our points. With the line movement and you touched on this I am saying if it the ML goes from +175 to +150 even though probablity remains the same if you dont like it @ +150 then really I dont think it remains a good play at +175 if the closing line is +150. Naturally if its still a play at +150 then its a great job to have it at +175. My point was more about when the movement changes your opinion of a play...hence my false value comment. I would saying I feel better having it go up cuase fundamentally if its a play at 175 then it most be a play at +200..(not saying you have to add but I would feel better about my decision just not as happy with my line).

Did I do better? I understand your points even if I might not sound it. I know its alittle different then spreads and totals but really it isnt. When a line or total move it does decrease your chances of winning a play which is different then the ML's but it really shouldnt impact your decision making cause the play shouldnt really have such a narrow window where 1 pt means something or 20 ,30 in a ML move means something...techinically for the ML it means better payout but it should sway comfort level with a play. This goes back to there really is no difference bewteen winning percentages bewteen the closing line and the best line on game...did any of the moves today effect the outcome? No , so I am saying should they change your decision making process.

Feel free to just talk about another day or time I understand if your tired...
 
not sure I can really say I like it...it's like the D-Day scene of Saving Private Ryan or the final slaughter of the samurai in the last Samurai. "Like it" isn't quite right.

I ......appreciate...such movies.

Gods & Generals is similarly quite the tear jerker.

But I don't like them as I might like The Big Lebowski, Star Wars, or James Bond movies...
 
SN, I hear you. 20 cents per dollar is an awful lot to me. That's 20% of my investment.

So yeah, it might very well affect what I do.

And yes, when I like it at 200, and it goes to 250, it makes me do this:

angry.gif
 
I am forever amazed at the tactics. But I suppose that was a function of the weapons available to be mass produced.

It just got to the part where the 54th routed a confederate attack. How would you like to be in the attacking force and have to explain that loss to your buddies back in camp...?

heh heh ...
 
had I not added the suns, I woulda had a split. the +123 sure reeled me in...and it sure looked good at halftime...

ML dogs: 1-1 +a bit
Spreads: 1-2 -2ish

ML dogs: 49-85, 36.57% -1.645 units
Spreads: 62-50-7, 52.1% +32.764 units
 
eh, I'm pretty sure I'll be taking tomorrow off.

not fading the Mavs on this win streak.

I would need more than I'm going to get for that Hornets line...against Detroit without Chauncey I'll still want at least 3:1 to bother with the bees, and I don't think it'll get there. Maybe +250, and that's not enough for me.

Lakers might win, but at 150ish, I don't think I want to try Mamba at SACk. 2:1 might begin interest...maybe.

Only thing that looks good to me is the Pistons/Hornets under 178, but I don't want to do my usual style of selling points, so it strikes me as a smart no play. I'm thinking 90-75. But I can also easily see 95-85 if the Hornets find something to exploit and get some points.

SO, I will very likely just take the day off.
 
looking on to Friday, some of these smell good.

Suns by DD over the Heat...probably more than 20.
Memphis at home wins by 12-18 over Boston.
Milwaukee a short home fave over the Cavs to win by a lot more. today's Cavs road win might help that line...

Charlotte may be a worthwhile dog at Orlando.
New York worthwhile dog at Seattle?
Utah/Houston dog.
 
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