NBA ML dogs 1.27

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 61-104, 36.97%, +8.16875 units
Spreads: 95-97-11, 46.8%, +2.9156 units

Mavs -11.5 (-110) Cris...here I was concerned it would be more like -15...

As for ML dogs...

I'm looking at a few right now...several stick out as likely to have value.
I like the dog between shit teams...Philly at Atlanta for instance...

The 76ers at +175 or so might be Very Nice...

of note indicating the SHIT part of these teams:

Philadelphia is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home

However,

Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games (7-3 last 10) when playing Atlanta

I'm also thinking perhaps Atlanta might be ripe for a letdown after 2 hard-fought wins...yet philly will have to rebound from letting the Cavs game at home get away. Not a bet for the faint of heart, and I'm not exactly full of gusto these days, but I do think there may be some value in there. Last time they played (in November, so take it fwiw), the 76ers were favored at home by 5.5. I think Philly has some value here.
 
Memphis chalk at home is almost enticing.......-2.5.....? hmmm

Hornets at home to the Jazz might have some value...especially off the trip yesterday. Depends on how tired and indifferent the Jazz are...1.75 might not be enough to bother with here, but I would expect Joe and Jane to be on the Jazz pretty heavy, so perhaps 2 or 2.25 will be available by gametime.

Heat at Bulls. Miami got absolutely shellacked their last two times out. At New York sans Curry and at Indiana...hell, Miami had a 20pt lead at Indiana. Still, Miami has a substantial interior edge over Chicago...I'm pretty sure Deng will have his way with the long 2s, but anything in the paint is going to be tough for the Bulls to pull off.

And even if the bulls do spring out to a significant lead, they will go cold at some point - giving at the very least a CHANCE for the Heat to get back into the game. And this is if the Heat suck to begin with...

At any rate, at 6.5 this might yield well over 2:1...at 2.5, I may well have to play it.

these two have split the last 10 going 5-5 SU.

Chicago won the last 2, and they've been alternating runs of 2 in a row each.

Miami has lost 4 of the last 5.
Chicago lost 2 of the last 5.

Last time they played in Chicago on December 27, the line was -5.5. Here it's at -6.5. Shrug. Where will it go? I do smell some value here too...
 
Denver Chalk is also looking interesting to me.

These teams haven't played since December of 2005...in the last 10 games between them, neither team has covered without winning SU.

I think off that loss to Utah, the Nuggets will come home wanting to put the wood to the next opponent. the Nets will fall off in the 4th if not sooner. The last 3 heart-breaking losses have got to be wearing on that bunch. Too many younger guys are going to be damned dejected, and there's a point at which the old farts can't carry that team without an interior presence. I really think this one'll be a slaughter.

Something like 118-90.

Or I could be completely wrong.
 
I can't agree with Dallas or Denver.

EVERYONE is saying the same thing about Miami, it seems like an obvious spot and very well maybe, but why is the line not more like 4.5? I made Chicago 6, and I agree with you that anything over +200 for Miami looks good. I just don't see any value in taking the points.

Like the HORNIES as well....GL Red.
 
Why isn't the line 4.5? Well Bulls beat them twice this season, once painfully. Miami coming off a loss (against weaker opponents who were playing without Curry and against a team that they usually dominate), they're b2b, etc...

However, this is a good spot for Miami from a psychological standpoint, I just think they step up BIG tonight. GL :shake:
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=8 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=wiretap_key_header>Shaq: 'It's Embarrassing'</TD></TR><TR><TD>27th January, 2007 - 5:39 am</TD></TR><TR><TD>New York Daily News -
New York's 116-96 thumping of Miami, which included 52 points by Jamal Crawford, dropped the Heat to 19-24, but the way Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade talked afterward at their lockers, it seems as if the defending champs are teetering on the edge of a full-blown crisis.

"I'm getting sick and tired of this ---. I've never been five games under .500 in my career. It's embarrassing," said O'Neal. "Now that I'm back, I guess I've got to get on some guys' (cases). I guess I've got to be the ugly man to get it done."

The 7-1 big man did not name Heat players he thought were slacking, but said his team was in a "funk" and that it was his "job as a leader to make sure everyone gets back on track."

Wade also was clearly irked about the team's slumping ways.

"I'm not a motivator. I've never been," Wade said. "Everybody's looking for me to come in and make a speech. It's not going to happen, man. I just try to go out there and play and hopefully my play speaks for itself.

"Guys have to look at themselves in the mirror. Everyone's got to come in on both ends of the floor and play hard - have some pride about it. Something's gotta change. I'll leave it up to y'all's imagination." </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Troutman said:
Red,
What about twolves spread?
Click to expand...

I'm not a fan. Last time they played in Minny, the wolves were -5. Turn it around on the road and sure, the Wolves ought to be +1 or +2, but do consider the complete-shit-on-the-road Clippers beat them outright in Minny...

of note:

Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

If you like this spread, you can get +6.5 (-101) at Matchbook right now.

:shake:
 
smh212 said:
I can't agree with Dallas or Denver.
Click to expand...

I am talking myself off of Denver right now. ...though I'm sure as hell not betting on the Nets.

of note:
New Jersey is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Jersey is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
 
Okay, given the past few games' trends...OVER is not a foolish proposition for the Denver/Nets game...especially if I think it's likely that the Nets will be competitive.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games

And Billivy likes it...he's a smart guy.

Nugs/Nets Over 210 (+100)
 
I think there are just too many injuries for me to take Miami today...With Shaq still limited and Zo a ? with the flu.....and J Will having a foot issue...they could still do it, but my interior presence idea is a little on the moot point side...
 
I am considering the

Hornets
76ers

and to a lesser extent, the Raptors.

I could get Philly at 184 right now, but it looks to me like it should get to 187 or 188 by gametime, so I'll sit tight for now... The hornets are at 141, and I want more than that, or I won't play it.
 
Well...heavy chalk sure wasn't a good idea...at least the over came in. Shoulda stayed off the Nuggets, I guess. But I really am surprised the Nets played as well as they did, and Denver had a shitload of shots go in and pop back out in the second half (and yet the over still hit). I think the mavs was a good bet that didn't make it too. Who knew the Kings would have a great day on the road? Blind squirrel/find nut syndrome, I guess.

at the risk of tooting my own horn, I've been smelling out the ML dogs pretty fucking well, recently...which is fortunate.

ML dogs:62-104, 37.35%, +10.01 units
Spreads: 96-99-11, 46.6%, +1.76 units
 
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