NBA ML dogs 1.24

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 59-102, 36.65%, +0.86975 units
Spreads: 91-84-10, 49.19%, +13.5556 units

At first glance...the Rockets and the Nets both present significant likely value in the ML.

First the Nets. While Richard Jefferson is a loss, I don't think he's as significant as it would be if Kidd or Carter was out. The no name guys have been playing pretty well for the Nets, recently. But really...Nets +6? In New Jersey in December, this game was Nets -6...and NJ won and covered. I mean, come on... I'd be looking for 240 or so, and I'll play the Nets here.

Nets won 4 SU of their last 5.
GSW won 1 SU of their last 5.

Nets are 8-2 SU last 10 between these two. Jersey has won 4 of the last 5 of any significant time back (Jan of 2005) and 7 of last 8 (since March 2003).

I know Baron Davis is probable. I know Richard Jefferson is out. I know GSW has some new faces that may fill out well. But these new faces are guys the Nets have seen many many times. I really think there will be some significant ML dog value on this one.

Rockets at Spurs.
Big News in this game is Kirk Snyder is out with a respiratory ailment.................crickets..........................exactly. So, given the Spurs issues at home this year (both ATS and SU), +8 strikes me as high. No word suggesting Tmac is out, and I'm assuming he's playing. Houston pounded em in December with Yao. Will be tougher without him. Do note...in December, the line was the same -8. again I say, wtf?

hmm, I may talk myself off this one...

Rockets are on a 3 game losing streak.
lost by 8 to denver - no cover
lost by 9 to phoenix - no cover
lost by 13 at dallas - no cover

Spurs are on a 3 game win streak.
won by 4 at Boston - no cover
won by 14 at philly - did cover
won by 13 to NOK - no cover

The spurs especially like to NOT FUCKING PLAY in the fourth quarter. So even when they have a 23 pt lead over the weak-ass Celtics, they play drunken middle school basketball during the 4th and hang on to win by 2 buckets.

Houston is 13-10 ATS away from home.
San Antonio is 9-13 ATS at home

a spread play may be warranted here instead of a ML play...

VISTING TEAM has won the last 4
San Antonio has won all but the last meeting since Feb 2005 (7-1SU).
San Antonio is 4-4 ATS since Feb 2005

Yeah, I pretty much talked myself out of a Rockets ML play...

more to come, perhaps...
 
Bucks at Kings. -9 is too much, but I'm not putting money on the Bucks. No play for me.

Grizzlies @ Jazz. This is a joke right? The Grizz on the road, STILL getting love for the high totals. Let's review the Grizzlies' last games on the road since changing styles:

01/22/2007 at Denver: L 115 - 98 L (12) U (233)
01/20/2007 at LA Clippers: L 112 - 91 L (6½) U (222½)
01/13/2007 at Chicago: L 111 - 66 L (8) U (224)
12/31/2006 at Houston L 111 - 109 W (8½) O (184)

Feel free to consider past results of Grizz at home, but I wouldn't bother with that.

regarding the Jazz, a similar game this one might be compared to is the Bullets game on Jan 14th AT washington. Total on that one, btw, was 215.5...a full 6 points below this total. Be assured that the Grizz will give up 100 to the Jazz. Probably 110. I would be utterly SHOCKED to see the Grizz hit 100 on the road though...essentially, they haven't yet, except for that one Houston game, and that was when the league was still adjusting to a Grizz trackmeet.

Under 222 (-110) at WSEX (cris has it there, too)

it could lose...I doubt it will.
 
T'wolves @ Trailblazers. -2 is a shit number. Remember that Denver was -2 at Seattle tonight. Is this a similar situation? I think not, especially with Portland's recent home victories. At the same time, betting Portland at +110 or so is useless. Screw it. I ignore this shitass game.

Suns @ Knicks. I dunno what this number will be. But I don't for a second think the knicks will actually defeat the suns. I also think the number might be short enough to warrant a shot. At phoenix the Suns were favored by 13, and they covered the shit out of it. At -7 this would be enticing to me, but my guess is it'll be more like -10, and at the number I will grumble and move along...it's just too much. However, I can't take the points there either because the Suns may well score 125 again...and if Marbury doesn't play, that's going to be a significant loss.

Last time the total was 219 and it fell WAY below that with a lackluster Knicks performance. The total might even be stupid high again like tonight...and if it is, I'll be on that.
 
Atlanta @ Boston and Philly @ Cleveland don't interest me at all.

I may have great interest in the Heat/Pacers depending on the number and if Wade doesn't play again...
 
so to recap...

Grizz&Jizz Under 222 (-110)

looking at

Suns chalk (possible first half &/or 3rdQ play)
Nets ML
 
I absoultely love that UNDER 222 Grizz/Jizz play. I don't see it getting near there but I have learned a thing or two betting against the Over on the new "grizz" play. GL
 
I was just about to start a thread regarding this 221.5 total .. it jumped off the board like a jack rabbit .. THe books seem to have set this total on the premise that Utah is still the offensive jugganaut from the first few weeks of the season ..

Also see a tonne of value in Houston catching 8.5 at San Antonio ..
 
good call on the nuggs and mavs

I would not take a ml against the suns and or the mavs team for a while..especially with any team from the jv conf.

G luck today red
 
abcs, totally agree about the JV conference.

georgioly, my working assumption was that Baron IS playing. Donbest had him listed as probable yesterday, but he's been downgraded to questionable. That's interesting.

OSO$, if they were in Memphis it would be a different story. But these guys can't seem to run and shoot on the road.

Gerald Wallace was injured in practice and is questionable tonight. Primoz is still out. Sean May is questionable...lots of value in that Detroit play as I see it...and most importantly BAR likes it...and it's a detroit play. He knows his stones.

Pistons -6.5 (-103)
 
B.A.R. said:
the thing with Jersey....it makes no sense...so it should win..

nuff said
Click to expand...

well, unless I actually get 2:1, I'm not doing it. Baron notwithstanding...

I type that...then I check matchbook....

Nets +200

confused.gif
 
Yes I do. I think he's a role player to begin with...the third fiddle, the Nets can do without. Besides, I'm taking em at 2:1...

New Jersey is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Golden State

Golden State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Golden State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

there are, of course, some contrarian trends as well.
 
and the line is fucking insane. In NJ, Nets were -6 and they covered. Now in Cali, they're getting +6? Are you kidding me?

in other news...

Indiana -3 (-110)

here's to hoping wade is limited or OUT tonight...

Miami is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indiana
Miami is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Indiana is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home

miami is 3-7 last 10 meetings.

There are, of course, several contrarian angles...notably:

Miami won the last 2 meetings (yet covered neither and they were in FL).
 
to recap...

Grizz & Jizz Under 222 (-110)
Suns -5 1st H (-110)
Pistons -6.5 (-103)
Pacers -3 (-110)

Nets +200
 
I think he is an important asset to the team, they already are missing kristic. They now start hassan adams.. OUCH, the team couldnt break 85 last game

G luck
 
Situational it was a bad spot for GS in NJ. Long East Coast trip I believe as well as backend. They final is misleading cause they won the 4th quarter due to a GS dry spell. This GS team is much better then that version. This NJ team is down Kristic and RJ. Who were only 3rd and 4th fiddle but can we expect Moore to keep playing like this? Suprised Adams started over Nachbar to a degree. They go as far as Vince and Kidd take them now.What scares one is Vince 3 off 22 from three last 4 and just 4 of 11 for 8 pts in ac. NJ was up 20 in the 2nd Half and lost. Which tells you how lost they will be late in games if Kidd or Carter is not playing well. Both Kidd and Carter performed poorly in the 1st meeting. Just 11 4th Q points in Sac...

I understand your play it might be something you look to hedge/middle if NJ is up at half. They have proven they cant hold a 20 pt lead with 15,16 to play. GL
 
Actually, I was already looking at middling or hedging out of it. I'm hoping that Baron is announced out 30 mins pregame and the line plummets... If not, I'll still take 2:1 and be fairly happy.
 
OSO$, it's been going down steadily...I doubt it goes back up. Use multiple books!

Driver, thanks, and GL to you too!
 
redbearde said:
and the line is fucking insane. In NJ, Nets were -6 and they covered. Now in Cali, they're getting +6? Are you kidding me?

in other news...

Indiana -3 (-110)

here's to hoping wade is limited or OUT tonight...

Miami is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indiana
Miami is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Indiana is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home

miami is 3-7 last 10 meetings.

There are, of course, several contrarian angles...notably:

Miami won the last 2 meetings (yet covered neither and they were in FL).
Click to expand...

we're on the same side here man. I'm also considering PHX -8.5. GL :cheers:
 
MLs
Hawks +180
Nets +200

Spreads

Grizz & Jizz Under 222 (-110)
Suns -5 1st H (-110)
Pistons -6.5 (-103)
Pacers -3 (-110)
Rockets 4thQ +1.5 (-110)
Trailblazers pk (+115)

This will very likely be it for tonight. Going out this eve.

GL to all.
 
Satyr, with the Suns long night last night and tendency to slow the game down in the latter parts of the 4th, you might want to look at partgame wagers instead for that one.

Just a suggestion....a TD+Safety is a lot to cover in the NBA. However, I do like that play a helluva lot more than taking the points...

GL to us!
 
thanks for the advice, it does make sense I can't argue with that, it's just I personally dislike betting halves. I usually get screwed up with it, so I'm focused totally on full game wagering. Meaning all my calculations and estimations reflect upon full game totals or spreads. Phoenix had a long night, but they're still scoring a TON, if you ask me that's enough to cover in MSG, back to back or not.
Still if I pull the trigger on it I will only risk 2 units (note that I have a 1-10 staking system, European style :D ) on it. Cheers.
 
Satyr, MORE than fair enough...GL!

eames, GL to you too, bro!

I lied.

I haven't taken one of these in a while, but with how horribly the Cavs have been playing, and with Philly's different lineup without IVY...I'm giving this one a flyer. Please leave off telling me how remote of a chance of a win there is with this. It's a value bet. I like the value for the risk.

Philly +750 (matchbook)
 
I feel like chasing with the suns 3rd Q...goddamnit...fuckin bullshit...

how do the suns shoot for 20% from 3pt land? Not going to...just really annoyed.
 
wow.

175 through 3 quarters in Utah. DID NOT SEE THAT SHIT COMING AT ALL. I almost put multiple units on that one...glad I didn't.

I'll need a miracle to get that under...

fuck.
 
Okay...I had under in Utah...huge crash and burn.
Pacers -3...pacers win by 2.
Suns 1H -5...suns up by 3 at the half.

All of those I can take without complaining. Much.

But goddamnit...the Nets had a significant lead...they had numerous chances to DO SOMETHING RIGHT, GODDAMNIT...and what do they do? They take a series of shots from the outside at the end of the shotclock. Now, I understand running down time with a lead. Sure. Fine. BUT TAKE AT LEAST ONE GOOD FUCKING SHOT.

DRIVE TO THE RIM.

SportsNut is right. These fucking douchbags are The Absolute Suck. The Nets hit 51.3% to GSW's 46.4%, and from 3pt range, it was 44% to 19.2%, and the goddamned Nets STILL MANAGED TO LOSE THE FUCKING GAME.

Granted, there was an egregious foul by BEEdrins on the rebound off the Nets' last missed(of course) shot, but they didn't even TRY to contest the final shot at the other end. They just watched it go in.

:angry:

having said all that...

3-3 (-0.15 units) in spreads and 2-1 in ML dogs for a huge increase: 8.3 units. This makes for a very good fucking day, and I still endured some significant moosings.

course, they're all probably balanced by the philly win...

:36_1_36:

But I'm greedy...and at least one other win would have been nice. anyway...moving on.

ML dogs: 61-103, 37.2%, +9.16975 units
Spreads: 94-87-10, 49.21%, +13.4056 units
 
nice night.. even though u lost that nets bet on a moose or buzzer beater u still have the right to say i told u so.. i act thought theyd lose by 8 or so
 
I'm not an i told you so kind of guy. From what I saw of those fucking fucks, I'm inclined to agree with you about them...
 
As I was bitching outloud about that game I remebered that you NJ ML and started to feel bad. I would rather see you get paid then myself get satisfaction (and lose).

They didnt give much wiggle room to middle at half either. Really I just dont know what GS was thinking NJ just watched them all nite score in the paint. I had to turn it off cause GSW approach was just ridiculous. They go up 87 -84 and 2 minutes later its NJ 98-89.. Lets shoot a contested three time and time again or in Barons case uncontested with no chance at going IN.

The Nets have so many holes and get career notes from Williams and Nachbar (even Kidd offensively 4-6 from 3??) yet lose. Definetly a good value play cause GSW doesnt have a solid Basketball IQ and NJ tends to. Alot of mooses yesterday..

GL today..
 
yea thats what i was getting at.. The team is weak right now with no post offense and missing a 16 - 20 pt per game guy. The bench is shaky at best. I was suprised to see them keep it close last night honestly.
 
Well, on to today. The Clippers don't like to take 3s, and I think they'll score in the paint all night long. This should be a slaughter.
 
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