NBA ML Dogs 1.21

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 58-100, 36.71%, +0.8786 units
spreads: 86-81-9, 48.86%, +11.5556 units

Mavs -6 (-102)

For Dallas....revenge, excellent road record, Stackhouse is healthy...

...hell, I would prefer Shaq play today. There's no way he can be in game shape...

Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

There are some longer term trends that don't support this as much, but I really like the Mavs today. They seem to have a chip on their shoulder this year, and you KNOW they'll come into this game with putting the SPANK on em...

I do think this line is higher than it should be, but it's probably being shaded to the MAvs side. I don't think that'll be a problem - I'd expect a Mavs DD win here. If they can do it, expect a profound beatdown. Dallas has had this game circled since last summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see 40 out of Dirk today. I don't think Miami has anyone that can guard him on the perimeter, and between Terry, Howard, and Stackhouse, the miami defense is going to get run ragged all day long.

I may not play any more games. I'll have to look at the others, and I haven't had a chance yet...

GL today folks.

 

[abcs]

Back in black.. holla

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[redbearde]

abcs,

 

[JayPo]

Let's GO Mavs!
I'm with ya on this one
GL Mate!

 

[redbearde]

Thanks JayPo! GL to you, too!

 

[flounder101]

Looks like money to me.

I got 'em -3.5 for the half.

GL, bro.

 

[redbearde]

Good win for you, flounder! Perhaps they'll pull it out for me, too...

 

[redbearde]

I WILL GLADLY TAKE THE PUSH.

whew...

 

[flounder101]

Better than a loss, my friend.

 

[JayPo]

Likewise bro !
Rather the Push Than a LOSS!

Stackhouse is D Man!

 

[JayPo]

Do you have any leans for later games today ?

 

[redbearde]

Well, I often find it to be bad for me to go fishing for more plays....

offhand, I would totally lay off the Spurs/Hornets game. Neither team is predictable enough right now. Same with Portland/Milwaukee. Both teams are ass, and getting a read on how the game might go is an exercise in futility for me.

Suns should beat the hell out of the Twolves. But who the hell wants to lay 16? KG and Ricky Davis are both suspended, so it's not like you can reasonably think the Suns are in danger of having their win streak broken, but the Suns have also been slowing down and letting teams back in during the 4th Qs recently...with 16pts+......sheesh.

Gun to my head, I say bet the Patriots. In fact, I did. But I also bet the saints, and that sure isn't working out well...

 

[redbearde]

Okay, while I don't much care for this sort of bet usually, it IS the case that the Suns are a much better team than the Twolves. So what're the options......1st quarter? They've actually not been all that great. BUT

calex24 put together some interesting numbers regarding the SECOND quarter...

and I thought I'd play the Suns 2ndQ. So I go to 5dimes, and I am SO FUCKING STUPID that I manage to bet the Suns -4.5 3rd Quarter, and I don't notice until AFTER I have confirmed the bet.

whoops.

SO,

GO SUNS in the 3rd Quarter....

Suns -4.5 (-110) for 3rdQ

I still may very well win this. ...especially if the Twolves hang around some during the first half. But my goal was to bet the 2nd quarter instead. So I guess I'm a moron on about 6 different levels surrounding this wager.

 

[macdamn]

Hey red. Call me crazy, but I'm going to take a shot on the Sixers tonight.

Philly +410 from Matchbook for 1 unit

I guess I'm just looking at this game and it seems Philly is playing pretty decent ball lately. I remember very well when they played the Spurs back in December because I actually bet on the Sixers at +2100 in that game just out of general principles, LOL. And they actually played them pretty tough, losing by only 5. They beat the Spurs at home last year at home. So I think they have a real chance. You just never know when the Spurs are going to take the day off.

Good luck on that Suns play:cheers:

 

[abcs]

no garnett or ricky davis.. hmm

 

[redbearde]

Mac, I can respect that at over 4:1...still not sure I can do it myself. At 5:1 it might be leaning toward FORCING me to take that play.

 

[flounder101]

I think you're still OK with the 3rd q, Red. I don't think the Suns pack it in until the 4th.

I'll be rootin' for ya!!

 

[redbearde]

that's pretty much what I think flounder. GL to US bro.

GO SUNS!

 

[abcs]

Okay, while I don't much care for this sort of bet usually, it IS the case that the Suns are a much better team than the Twolves. So what're the options......1st quarter? They've actually not been all that great. BUT

calex24 put together some interesting numbers regarding the SECOND quarter...

and I thought I'd play the Suns 2ndQ. So I go to 5dimes, and I am SO FUCKING STUPID that I manage to bet the Suns -4.5 3rd Quarter, and I don't notice until AFTER I have confirmed the bet.

whoops.

SO,

GO SUNS in the 3rd Quarter....

Suns -4.5 (-110) for 3rdQ

I still may very well win this. ...especially if the Twolves hang around some during the first half. But my goal was to bet the 2nd quarter instead. So I guess I'm a moron on about 6 different levels surrounding this wager.

:cheers:

 

[redbearde]

oh yeah...46-20, and I woulda lost the 2ndQ.

hahahhaha. eat it 5dimes.

ML dogs: 58-100, 36.71%, +0.8786 units
Spreads: 87-81-10, 48.88%, +12.5556 units