NBA ML Dogs 1.19

[redbearde]

ML dogs: 54-97, 35.76%, -5.7014 units
Spreads: 82-78-9, 48.52%, +8.556 units

Detroit +1 (-110) 3 units

Washington @ Orlando. The Magic have had to chew on a loss to the Hornets on Tuesday. That was their 3rd game lost in a row, this is their only game at home before another road trip to Jersey & Cleveland, and they're in an utterly shitty 3 days off situation. Their only saving grace is that Washington doesn't like playing defense. Jameer should be able to drive to the hoop all day, but then, Gilbachi should counter with offense, and Butler will likely get a few steals off the youngster...one key should be Bullets' rebounding...or the lack thereof. If Haywood can compete even somewhat with Howard for his defensive boards, and the Bullets don't give up too awful many 2nd chance points, then I think Washington should win this game handily. Historically, the bullets have had a tough time with Orlando.

Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando

However, the game in december was won by the Bullets...even the November game, which only counts but so much...the Bullets won. Previous to these, I think streak is less significant.

Here's another one:

Washington is 1-4 ATS & SU in its last 5 games on the road

This was during a stretch with the Bullets being significantly favored and winning by the skin of their asses...on the road. Here, we have Wash as a 3.5pt dog, all these trends screaming ORLANDO at first glance, AND the situation is absolute DOGSHIT for the Magic. Here's where they are...today is bold:

1.10@GSW - W
1.12@ Lakers - L
1.13@ Phoenix - L
1.16@ OKC - L in OT
TODAY Home to Washington
1.20@ New Jersey
1.22@ Cleveland
1.23 Home to Dallas

This is Orlando's schedule...it's hell for them, and they couldn't even take down the Hornets...even given an extra chance in OT....as I recall, they didn't even score until the last minute of OT........

My play today here is going to be Washington ML dog. Right now it's at 150 at matchbook, and I'll be surprised if I don't see more than that somewhere...if not matchbook later. But in this situation for Orlando with a quality shooting bullets squad, I'll take 1.5:1...

 

[Supersav]

ML dogs: 54-97, 35.76%, -5.7014 units
Spreads: 82-78-9, 48.52%, +8.556 units

Detroit +1 (-110) 3 units

Washington @ Orlando. The Magic have had to chew on a loss to the Hornets on Tuesday. That was their 3rd game lost in a row, this is their only game at home before another road trip to Jersey & Cleveland, and they're in an utterly shitty 3 days off situation. Their only saving grace is that Washington doesn't like playing defense. Jameer should be able to drive to the hoop all day, but then, Gilbachi should counter with offense, and Butler will likely get a few steals off the youngster...one key should be Bullets' rebounding...or the lack thereof. If Haywood can compete even somewhat with Howard for his defensive boards, and the Bullets don't give up too awful many 2nd chance points, then I think Washington should win this game handily. Historically, the bullets have had a tough time with Orlando.

Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando

However, the game in december was won by the Bullets...even the November game, which only counts but so much...the Bullets won. Previous to these, I think streak is less significant.

Here's another one:

Washington is 1-4 ATS & SU in its last 5 games on the road

This was during a stretch with the Bullets being significantly favored and winning by the skin of their asses...on the road. Here, we have Wash as a 3.5pt dog, all these trends screaming ORLANDO at first glance, AND the situation is absolute DOGSHIT for the Magic. Here's where they are...today is bold:

1.10@GSW - W
1.12@ Lakers - L
1.13@ Phoenix - L
1.16@ OKC - L in OT
TODAY Home to Washington
1.20@ New Jersey
1.22@ Cleveland
1.23 Home to Dallas

This is Orlando's schedule...it's hell for them, and they couldn't even take down the Hornets...even given an extra chance in OT....as I recall, they didn't even score until the last minute of OT........

My play today here is going to be Washington ML dog. Right now it's at 150 at matchbook, and I'll be surprised if I don't see more than that somewhere...if not matchbook later. But in this situation for Orlando with a quality shooting bullets squad, I'll take 1.5:1...

Watching the Wiz play the Knicks the other night in wash I wasnt impressed at all. This team has no offense gameplan other then come down and pull up jumpers. No inside presence at all and now there on the road. They might win but they are very overrated to me. If Howard plays like he should I see Orlando winning.
:drink:

 

[redbearde]

Hornets @ Spurs. Last time these two teams met (Dec 23rd), the Spurs won 112-77. Some staggering trends here:

San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

And this is when New Orleans starting lineup isn't necessarily on the bench...this is one of those teams who the Spurs thoroughly exploit. I can understand a play on the Hornets here...after all, recent trends for them look like this:

New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road

What this says to me is that it's not like anyone thinks the Hornets will win, but they've certainly been undervalued. San Antonio has now recently lost to
the Lakers and the Bulls. This after beating the Bullets in San Antonio and Denver at Denver (big fuckin deal).

The Spurs had yesterday and have tomorrow off. They're in a perfect spot to get a good win. However, if you're considering take the Hornets spread, you'll probably be better off taking the Over 177. If the Hornets are competitive at all, it'll be because of good offense. There's no way this bunch stops TIMMY (or even Oberto for that matter) and those shooters. They leave too many good outside shooters open way too often, and they turn the ball over with bad passes too much (the Spurs should have 30-40 quick pts off turnovers today.

Situationally, the last time the Spurs lost two in a row, the third game was lost to Dallas by 5 before dismantling the Grizz by 15. I honestly think 15pts here is a solid number, and I would be more inclined to lay the chalk than take the points. However, neither side winning in my mind is a matter of shooting or defense as it is luck, so I'm staying off it. I am giving serious consideration to taking the Over 177, though. I fully expect the Spurs to hit 100 (if not 110 again), and it wouldn't surprise me at all for the Hornets to hit 80.

here are some more trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games

however......
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

This play I would be particularly interested in having others' opinions on....

 

[redbearde]

Watching the Wiz play the Knicks the other night in wash I wasnt impressed at all. This team has no offense gameplan other then come down and pull up jumpers. No inside presence at all and now there on the road. They might win but they are very overrated to me. If Howard plays like he should I see Orlando winning.
:drink:

I could say the same about the Magic playing the Hornets. I couldn't believe my eyes the other night when the Magic pulled off a stunningly poor performance. And they're in an even worse spot now, IMO.

:shake:

 

[redbearde]

Portland @ Phoenix. Jarrett Jack is expected to play. I'm not sure this helps Portland enough..or.....well..........at all. Phoenix at home against bad teams has been utterly crushing recently. No reason to expect anything else today. Between Marion and Stoudamire, I honestly think Phoenix can even limit Zach Randolph fairly well. And I can't wait to see Jack try to run around Barbosa....

Listen to that........defensive thinking in regards to the Suns. What's up with that?

Of course I expect Phoenix offense to kick some ass, and I would think Portland might have trouble striking 90, so I'm not too keen on this total. However I've got to give some serious thought to laying this chalk. It's ridiculously high, but Portland really is this bad (especially on the road), and Phoenix is in championship form.

Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Phoenix is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland (8-1SU)
Phoenix is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

thoughts?

 

[DuY!]

gl

 

[redbearde]

Thanks DuY. GL to you too.

Alright I'm getting dizzy, and I need to get off the computer.

Here's where I am right now

Detroit +1 (-110) 3 units
Phoenix -15 (+106)
Cleveland +1.5 (-102)

Bucks +225
Knicks +135
Bullets +162

 

[eames]

i like The CLE And MILK choices.

Good luck Amigo!!



'an_horse'

 

[redbearde]

 

[redbearde]

Sacramento -4 (+101)

 

[antmagic219]

bol


wagering favors the prepared mind

 

[rod_steel]

Have a look at the Bucks SU tonight

GL

 

[redbearde]

Oh, I had a look at the bucks straight up and their 31 points in the first half...

:36_11_6:

Bro, I hope you had something other than the Bucks today...I'm glad I did.

The Knicks and the Wiz made me feel smart today...the suns made me feel stupid with yet another late game slowdown......and Port really capitalized to fuck over the cover. Alas. Still, it was a good day. Denver was looking scary good even without Carmelo...I think Houston will give em a rougher time though...T-mac is expected to play.

anyway, after today:

ML dogs: 55-99, 35.71%, -5.8814 units
Spreads: 84-80, 48.55%, +10.5456 units