NBA ML Dogs 1/18-21

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
So, tonight I'm lookin at

Knicks
Bobcats
Supersonics

offhand, there's a combination of playing well, shaky opponents, matchups that might favor the dog, or Paul Gasol playing on a half flat tire. Oh yeah, Starbury's out......which improves the Knicks chance of winning about 4x.

New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
New York is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New York is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing Washington

this is also true:

Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York

Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Wizards are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Wizards are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.

Knicks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Knicks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Washington.

I'd love it if Antonio Daniels was out. But in any case, I'm thinking 3:1 is plenty of value, and I can get a few cents more.
 
for the sonics...

Both Memphis and Seattle are in remarkable losing slumps.

Seattle still hasn't won this year, and Memphis hasn't won since the 6th against (HAHA) Miami.

After this one, Seattle faces some Texas teams, and they may well be thinking if they don't want this streak to hit 10 or 12, they better win tonight.

well over 2:1 here, again....good value.
 
there are some interesting, if conflicting, trends to consider...

Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Memphis
Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Memphis
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Memphis
Seattle is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Seattle is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Memphis

for what they're worth.
 
Charlotte has been playing well. It's surprising, and it's remarkable. But in their last 6, they've lost 2 in OT, and they've won the other 4. And we're not talking about lucky plays. We're talking about hitting open jumpers, driving to the bucket, and Nazr Muhammed doing more than his part.

This game definitely qualifies as taking a shot, but riding a high like the kitties are on isn't a terrible idea...and close to 4:1 is definitely worthwhile, I think.
 
Don't get baiting into the Knicks tonight. Despite their recent string of success, this line is still absurdly high at 8. The Wizards is 4-0 as a big home favorite, and I expect them to make it 5-0 tonight.
 
oh well. 1 dog won tonight, and I got slaughtered in my other three.

It happens.

as first impressions for Saturday.........

The Heat are favored against the Knicks tomorrow.

:36_11_6:
 
this is interesting:

http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2008/01/jarrett_jack_has_the_last_word.html

Jarrett Jack has the last word
Posted by Jason Quick January 19, 2008 06:51AM
Categories: Team News

Ohhhh how I wish people could have heard Jarrett Jack crowing last night in the Trail Blazers locker room after they dispatched the Miami Heat for their 19th win in 22 games.

If Brandon Roy's 16-point fourth quarter ranks at the top of Roy's list, then Jack's postgame rant has to rank at the top of his own list _ which is almost as impressive as Roy's fourth quarter resume.

When he gets going, there is nobody like Jack as far as ripping off priceless quotes. Remember his Al Sharpton quote from earlier this season after Roy made his Jordanesque layin against Toronto?

"If that's not on ESPN's Top 10 plays, something is wrong. Call Stuart Scott, or whoever, and tell him if that's not in the Top 10, we are coming to take over the show. Tell them we are coming to Bristol (Conn.), and we are bringing Al Sharpton with us.''

Well, this one was right up there, mainly because of how emphatic Jack was in saying it.

It seems Jack never forgot the comments made by Miami coach Pat Riley on opening night this season. Riley remarked how the San Antonio Spurs were awarded a "pushover" game against the Blazers in their season-opener after winning the NBA title. When Miami won the 2006 NBA title, Riley whined, they had to play Chicago, then a team coming off a playoff appearance.

"Now that they have been swept, I don't think you can call us a 'pushover' game,'' Jack trumpeted for all to hear from his locker stall, enunciating every word loudly and slowly. "Just don't think you can adequately say that!''

The Blazers (24-15) swept the Heat (8-30) this season, winning 112-106 in Portland and 98-91 on Friday.

"That's what he (Riley) called us, a pushover game,'' Jack said, returning to a regular tone. "I don't think you can call us a pushover game anymore. And that's not to say that's a bad ballclub over there, but the disrespect from the coach ...''

As if the mere thought of Riley infuriated him, Jack was off again. He might as well have pulled out a bullhorn, for the crescendo of his voice filled the room.

"I wonder what he has to say now?'' Jack blurted his voice getting louder with each word. "Can't ... quite ... seem ... to .. get ... a ... W! You know what I'm saying?''

While this was going on, Roy _ who was being mobbed by media across the locker room _ had one eye on Jack and the other on his interviews. And by the time the pack of microphones and notepads left, Roy immediately turned his attention to Jack.

"What are you yapping about over there?'' Roy said, curiously smiling.

"Pat Riley,'' Jack said. "Calling us a pushover before we played San Antonio.''

"I only heard that he said that, I never heard him say it,'' Roy said, ever the diplomat.

"Hey man, he said it, I didn't,'' Jack said. "All I know is we just went out there and played ball. Typical Trail Blazers basketball tonight. But that's just my personal opinion.''

Just in case anyone was listening.

--Quick
Click to expand...
 
I will be playing Portland again tonight.

Portland is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 games
Portland is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Portland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road

Orlando is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Orlando is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Orlando is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Orlando is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Orlando is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Portland
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Orlando is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Portland
Orlando is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Portland

last 6 meetings haven't quite gone the blazers way, but they play what...2 per year? And more importantly, the Magic, for whatever reason, have been playing better away than at home...

and they've lost 6 of their last 8 games.

Portland hasn't beaten the Magic in 2 years, but at over 2:1, I think that's quite worthwhile. I haven't played it yet because I'm not so sure this is the top of the line move, but I will be on it eventually.
 
that line ought to be something like Warriors -3ish....warriors beat them (all of em, not like Williams and Redd were out) in Cali by 30 as a 10.5pt dog on Dec 5th.

now they're in milwaukee and that's worth 2TDs...?

I don't think so.
 
this one's funny, too.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/warriors/detail?&entry_id=23591

Nellie's got spirit, and so do his Warriors ...

From Janny Hu in Chicago.


So out comes Nellie for his post-game interview:

"Well, I'm really disappointed. I just don't know if we're going to be able to recover. It's the time of the season where we have to start making a push and I don't know if playoffs are in our sight."


Now, he only got about halfway through that before I busted out laughing, but Nellie was a real trooper. He a kept a straight face (tone?) the entire time, I think for the Chicago media, though I'm sure they remembered last season's white-flag speech just as well as we do.

Classics like that, you just don't forget.
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

he goes on...

One of these days, Stephen Jackson's left big toe nail is going to fall off for the third time. But Jack says he'll keep on playing, and that's a good thing. He's shooting terribly, so you have to love his first quarter: Six assists against just two shot attempts. As usual, Jack was nails down the stretch, hitting a huge 3 to seal the win. And that lob play to Andris Biedrins is getting run about once a game now, and it's a pretty one.

Mickael Pietrus didn't play in the second half after catching the stomach flu ... and a couple of shots to his nose early on.
Click to expand...

I don't expect Stephen Jackson to shut it down, either.
 
I'm also looking at the Knicks. But I'm waiting for the line to keep going up.

first question for a wager you should ask yourself, especially when betting chalk. Are they likely to win? Is their record right there with the supersonics and timberwolves, and you're thinking of laying chalk?

?????????

it IS true that Miami usually beats New York.

Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Miami is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing New York

yet it is also true that recently miami hasn't beaten anyone. They find new and exciting ways to blow leads late every damn game.

Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

in fact, Miami is on a staggering 12 game losing streak, and they've won a total of 4 games in the last TWENTY FIVE.

Now, they may win tonight. But consider if you want to put your money on that team laying chalk.
 
Good Stuff red... :cheers:


Like The Kings Tonight...Warriors Look To Be A Play As Well. Took The under In Milwaukee. Warriors GETTING 3...They Could Be Laying 3 IMO...
 
Vapster said:
Good Stuff red... :cheers:


Like The Kings Tonight...Warriors Look To Be A Play As Well. Took The under In Milwaukee. Warriors GETTING 3...They Could Be Laying 3 IMO...
Click to expand...

exactly. Only thing I can think is the 4th in 5, you know? But I don't think that'll hurt the Warriors. They got the bad shooting out of their system last night.

...I hope. it was agony during some of that, but when GSW shoots 40% and Chitown shoots 60+%, and the score is 58-50......well, clearly the Warriors style is working.

Glad you popped in. GL today, Vap.
 
I like portland and NY. portland with the points might be my play though, maybe with a bit on the ML.

great stuff as always red
 
I don't blame you. The points may be a better style in this one, but I really like the value of 2:1 as opposed to points. GL.
 
anyone got a guess when they blowback will come for the Heat? How long do folks bet that shit up? I can get about 180 right now at MB, but 5dimes just bumped there's up.

and unfortunately, I have shit to do OTHER than sit in front of my computer screen all day.

:(
 
first post, just joined. been around the other place a while and lurking here more and more often. just wanted to thank you for your work as i always seem to drop in your threads first. we share some similar philosophies about ml doggies, value and risk. i take it a step further on occasion with ml dog parlays.
also enjoy the humor you bring with the periodic mention of vagina and/or felatio.
like port/gst (leary but playing them)/sac tonight. taking a close look at nyk and the grizz as well. thats my dog action for tonight...crushed last night as it seemed the only ml i didn't play was sac (had them ats).
anyway...thanks again and look forward to some conversation down the road.
 
Knicks +177.38

Out of time. If I could I'd wait more, but I have to head out. My entire card for today:

Knicks +177.38
Trailblazers +210
Warriors +140
Kings +155

going 50% would be good. going 3-1 would be spectacular. dare I hope?

GL today, fellas.
 
can't complain about 3-1 in ML dogs.

:smiley_acbe:

ML dogs: 39-45, 46.43%, +29.47units
spread record is a tad worse, but it's gotten a bit better recently.

taking Sunday off. Look for Monday and another Heat fade.

:36_11_6:
 
okay, so, I hoped for some ML plays today. with 13 games, I expected I'd find 2 or 4. Unfortunately, the only one I like is the Knicks, and aside from that game, I like a bunch of tiny chalk.

SO.

I'll be selective. I hope.

I already have

Trailblazers pk (even)
Bulls pk (+101)

call em ML if you like, but I'm considering them spreads. The important aspect is that my wager is precisely what the team is supposedly aiming for - to win.

the other one I am considering, and I want to play it, is the Cavs @ Miami. Of course, I could hope for the dog, but reality ultimately must set in and declare that Miami is a Bad Team.....unfortunately, I think this line is a bit tight. Which is why I've hesitated on playing it.

Ultimately, I think I will out of sheer Fade The Heat lust...but so far, not yet.

Oh, and I'm not playing the Knicks today. I don't like taking a single shot at 30 to 35% chance of winning. Just not in the mood today. If Rondo was doubtful, maybe I think more about it...
 
hahaha. easy. right. only took em a blown 6pt lead with a minute left, missing the winning shot at the end of regulation, and a last second shot to win at the buzzer of OT...
 
do you flat bet on these ML dogs? if so, do you risk the same amount on each play, or try to win the same amount?
 
I do flat bet - I risk the same.

askias, I can't see the game. Are the bulls really fouling twice as much as the grizz, or are they making selective foul calls.
 
Bulls are shooting all jumpers they are lucky to be in this game
What did you expect red? Name me one low post guy they have.. or one guy they have who attacks the basket?
 
abcs said:
Bulls are shooting all jumpers they are lucky to be in this game
What did you expect red? Name me one low post guy they have.. or one guy they have who attacks the basket?
Click to expand...

I already know where this conversation is going. oh goody. wheeeee.

okay.

Tyrus Thomas attacks the basket.
Ben Gordon attacks the basket.
Andres Nocioni attacks the basket.
Luol Deng attacks the basket.
from time to time...even Kirk Hinrich attacks the basket.
Ben Wallace tends to try for offensive rebounds...this sometimes includes attacking the basket.

and then of course there are the 2 or 3 minutes that Noah gets in the game. He tends to attack the basket, too.

In any event, when I asked the question it was 18 fouls to 9 fouls. ending at 23-16 isn't all that unexpected.

what WAS unexpected was the Bulls making the Grizz look good on defense.

I mean...36.5% against Memphis...?

:36_11_6:
 
Just saying the bulls are near the bottom of the league in free throws attempted
 
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