redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 53-95, 35.81%, -4.995 units
Spreads: 75-66-8, 50.34%, +14.782 units
Very good day yesterday. the BAR/Killa collaborations tend to help the day...
My ML dog plays have been atrocious recently. My initial thought on today was to take the day off, but as everyone bets on the Mavericks, the number for the Raptors (completely healthy now) should garner more and more value. I may be compelled to play it eventually...on the ML. I will not be playing the spread, though I wouldn't shit on anyone for doing so. I think it's a solid play, and I don't think that about many dog spreads...
Regarding the portland/denver game, I think it's a monumental clusterfuck in the making. Jack is out which is a huge loss at QB for the Blazers. Camby is questionable, and he would be a huge loss at DT for the Nuggets...though the starting OLB Najera can tackle Randolph a few times.......every missed outside shot by the trailblazers should equal a layup for the nuggets (the backcourts are totally incomparable). With Camby out, there's only so many times Najera can foul Randolph before 6 get called on him. Can Nene cover him on the wing? Uh, not likely. Will they triple team him thereby giving him a triple double chance with assists?
Looking ahead to Monday.......
A western team coming east for a 1pm game strikes me as a good situation for a flat performance. Washington has been getting the bullets stuffed up their asses recently, and it would surprise me if they're not a tiny dog at home to a relatively erupting Jizz team. That being the case, I'll be playing them.
An undermanned frontcourt coming to Charlotte will be another clusterfuck of a game if Felton's injury (he hurt his knee or ankle last night coming down funny after a shot) keeps him out. Maybe he's fine, but this is key if you're giving thought to betting the Bobcats. On the other hand, if the injury isn't long-term, then the combination of Felton and McInnis returning home (his last attempt spoiled - hahaha) should lead to utter backcourt domination by the Bobcats...who have been playing surprisingly well recently, even in the face of adversity.
New York is hosting a flakey Sacramento squad off of a heartbreaking OT loss to Houston last night. If Q can keep hitting shots like he's T-mac or Kobe and Starbury refrains from shaving points, then this little win streak the Knicks are on could very well continue. Not sure how the line's going to look. I'd expect a short Knicks fave situation, but at Sack on Jan 2nd, the Knicks were 9.5pt dogs...Which should make for a Knicks Dog....which I'll jump on like...a......another dog...yeah. Well, anyway, seems to me this is a good spot for the Knicks and a rough spot for the Kings.
Toronto, especially if they win today, might present us with some value in the 76ers tomorrow...It would not shock me at all to see Philly win that one.
Boston at Atlanta. Whoever the dog is. Who the fuck knows what's going to happen in that shitfest.......OVER?
I'm also moderately interested in Golden State and Memphis...memphis especially off the embarrassing shellacking they took at the hands of the Bulls. And also it seems to me that Phoenix has been slowing down the game in the last half of the 4th Q. They stop the early shotclock/late transition offense and try to eat up 15 seconds instead of getting the frenetic buckets they're used to getting. They've been letting decent teams get back into the games, and even against a quality team on a run like Orlando, they stopped playing their style in the last 6 minutes. I mean, it's not like they're playing the cavaliers every night anymore....
The total strikes me as an utterly fascinating no-play unless they make it 240......in which case I'll happily play the under. But I don't think an automatic over play is warranted even if it's jackass low like 217.
Golden State is more a fade of the Clippers. I'll have to give that one some brainpan time before try spouting off about it.
These are just some general impressions...in the process of organizing, I find that I somehow MISSED THE TRADE wherein Boykins and Hodge were traded for Steve Blake.
I know they need a PG, but goddamn........is he going to be a starter in the NBA on a team other than portland? Are you fucking kidding me?
I would deliriously love thoughtful comments and criticisms. Since I am about to go to sleep (at least I hope I'm about to sleep; insomnia sucks ass, you see), so I may not bother with today at all. If I play the Raptors it'll be just before tip.
SO GO BET THE MAVS.
But I won't be around til this afternoon or evening to discuss. But I would like feedback. So if you'd take the time, I'd be appreciative.
Spreads: 75-66-8, 50.34%, +14.782 units
Very good day yesterday. the BAR/Killa collaborations tend to help the day...
My ML dog plays have been atrocious recently. My initial thought on today was to take the day off, but as everyone bets on the Mavericks, the number for the Raptors (completely healthy now) should garner more and more value. I may be compelled to play it eventually...on the ML. I will not be playing the spread, though I wouldn't shit on anyone for doing so. I think it's a solid play, and I don't think that about many dog spreads...
Regarding the portland/denver game, I think it's a monumental clusterfuck in the making. Jack is out which is a huge loss at QB for the Blazers. Camby is questionable, and he would be a huge loss at DT for the Nuggets...though the starting OLB Najera can tackle Randolph a few times.......every missed outside shot by the trailblazers should equal a layup for the nuggets (the backcourts are totally incomparable). With Camby out, there's only so many times Najera can foul Randolph before 6 get called on him. Can Nene cover him on the wing? Uh, not likely. Will they triple team him thereby giving him a triple double chance with assists?
Looking ahead to Monday.......
A western team coming east for a 1pm game strikes me as a good situation for a flat performance. Washington has been getting the bullets stuffed up their asses recently, and it would surprise me if they're not a tiny dog at home to a relatively erupting Jizz team. That being the case, I'll be playing them.
An undermanned frontcourt coming to Charlotte will be another clusterfuck of a game if Felton's injury (he hurt his knee or ankle last night coming down funny after a shot) keeps him out. Maybe he's fine, but this is key if you're giving thought to betting the Bobcats. On the other hand, if the injury isn't long-term, then the combination of Felton and McInnis returning home (his last attempt spoiled - hahaha) should lead to utter backcourt domination by the Bobcats...who have been playing surprisingly well recently, even in the face of adversity.
New York is hosting a flakey Sacramento squad off of a heartbreaking OT loss to Houston last night. If Q can keep hitting shots like he's T-mac or Kobe and Starbury refrains from shaving points, then this little win streak the Knicks are on could very well continue. Not sure how the line's going to look. I'd expect a short Knicks fave situation, but at Sack on Jan 2nd, the Knicks were 9.5pt dogs...Which should make for a Knicks Dog....which I'll jump on like...a......another dog...yeah. Well, anyway, seems to me this is a good spot for the Knicks and a rough spot for the Kings.
Toronto, especially if they win today, might present us with some value in the 76ers tomorrow...It would not shock me at all to see Philly win that one.
Boston at Atlanta. Whoever the dog is. Who the fuck knows what's going to happen in that shitfest.......OVER?
I'm also moderately interested in Golden State and Memphis...memphis especially off the embarrassing shellacking they took at the hands of the Bulls. And also it seems to me that Phoenix has been slowing down the game in the last half of the 4th Q. They stop the early shotclock/late transition offense and try to eat up 15 seconds instead of getting the frenetic buckets they're used to getting. They've been letting decent teams get back into the games, and even against a quality team on a run like Orlando, they stopped playing their style in the last 6 minutes. I mean, it's not like they're playing the cavaliers every night anymore....
The total strikes me as an utterly fascinating no-play unless they make it 240......in which case I'll happily play the under. But I don't think an automatic over play is warranted even if it's jackass low like 217.
Golden State is more a fade of the Clippers. I'll have to give that one some brainpan time before try spouting off about it.
These are just some general impressions...in the process of organizing, I find that I somehow MISSED THE TRADE wherein Boykins and Hodge were traded for Steve Blake.
I know they need a PG, but goddamn........is he going to be a starter in the NBA on a team other than portland? Are you fucking kidding me?
I would deliriously love thoughtful comments and criticisms. Since I am about to go to sleep (at least I hope I'm about to sleep; insomnia sucks ass, you see), so I may not bother with today at all. If I play the Raptors it'll be just before tip.
SO GO BET THE MAVS.
But I won't be around til this afternoon or evening to discuss. But I would like feedback. So if you'd take the time, I'd be appreciative.
