NBA ML Dogs 1.10

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 52-91, 36.36%, -2.095 units
Spreads: 68-62-7, 49.64%, +21.004 units

Hornet/Hawks Over 177 (-101) 2 units
Bulls/Wizards Over 216 (-101) 2 units

on the ML, I'm liking the

Bulls
Hornets
Bobcats
Lakers

Those I especially do not like are

Celtics
Clippers
Trailblazers (though a spread play my be worthwhile...)
Nuggets
Magic

thoughts/opinions?

wagers recap
Hornet/Hawks Over 177 (-101) 2 units
Bulls/Wizards Over 216 (-101) 2 units
Pacers -3.5 (+104) 2 units
Knicks -4 (+101) 2 units
Spurs -6.5 (+134) 2 units
Timberwolves -6.5 (+117) 2 units

Lakers +170
 
Wally is limited
West is Questionable
Gomes is Questionable
Pierce is still out, of course...

Boston has a problem...
 
Iverson not 100%
JR Smith is back after a long break
Najera is probable after leaving last game
Carmelo, obviously, is still out.

Tony Parker played last night and looked fine...Spurs came out slow, but shot fucking lights out in the 2nd and through the rest of the game...to cover another large spread.

I want to play this Spurs road chalk. Someone talk me out of Spurs -7 at +5 to 10 cents.
 
Charlotte is at 4-1...not sure they have THAT much chance. I doubt I'll play this one. I like the reward value, but Detroit is playing damned well right now...even with sheed coming off the bench...heh.
 
The Farm said:
Red,
I like the over in the dallas/jail blazers game..
Gl with your ml's tonight.
Click to expand...

Seems to me the key for this is the Blazers getting 90 points. Think they can? I'm not so sure...this isn't the Jazz shooting we're talking about. Consider the Mavs bench vs the Portland bench (assuming Stack doesn't get tossed again), and that consideration has me cringing. I think I saw JPicks say this, but I totally agree.....-15.5 wouldn't be unreasonable for this one. Might well go 110-95, but it may go 95-80, too.......

GL with it, bro, but I'm just not a believer in that portland team. As for jailblazers, they aren't all a bunch of thugs anymore........it's been a focus for the organization recently.

:shake:
 
I never bet on Minnesota games. I always lose when I bet on Minnesota games. Conversely, when I have a strong lean on a Minnesota game, and I don't bet it, my lean wins. God is a smartass about some things.

I like the Twolves a lot tonight.......though it is a somewhat high number. There's no way in hell I can take the ML, though, and those games always make me look hard at the chalk...

Anyone have an opinion on Minnesota -6 (+107)

?
 
Twolves are on a 4-game win streak including beating the Spurs on January 3rd....The Clippers have been terrible on the road all season even at the Hornets last time out. Twolves play defense....which the Clippers haven't fared all that well against teams who actually play defense, especially on the road. If the Hornets weren't SO DAMNED BAD, they'd have won on Monday...

Except for the Hornets and a Wade-less Heat team, the Clippers have been atrocious recently....Really Bad.

Here's another one I want to play, damnit...
 
Lakers +170

Kobe looked pissed last night.......I think he'll match Tmac's insanity with his own. This should be a FUN game to watch...
 
Man your thread is cracking me up. Thoughts on the Spurs and TWolves.

Played the Spurs first half...and I'm salivating over the TWolves. I'm a bit concerned why the line is so low and going down. I'd be more comfortable if it was at 7.5.
 
I don't understand...you like it at 7.5, but you're concerned by 5.5?

well, make it 6.5 and get yourself +117...
 
Timberwolves -6.5 (+117) 2 units

breaking the rule AGAIN.

hope I'm not fucking up a bet for everyone.....
 
Wally Szczerbiak (F)
1/10: Wally Szczerbiak expects to play tonight against the Pacers, but his playing time will likely be restricted with his two sprained ankles, according to the Boston Herald. "I just think that’s something we’re going to have to do," Szczerbiak said. "In order to stay strong and play the rest of this month and (for) the rest of the season we’re going to have to be smart."
BOS: West to miss a couple of games Delonte West (G)
1/10: Delonte West sat out practice Tuesday due to his back injury, according to the Boston Herald. "I’ve said this a bunch with him and been wrong, but I would be surprised if he goes (tonight)," coach Doc Rivers said. "I’ve been wrong with that because he’s such a tough guy. I just keep saying at some point his body’s going to hit a no-return point and he’s not going to be able to do it. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see him for a couple of games


With Ryan Gomes I think he will be okay but thats just an opinion...
 
redbearde said:
I don't understand...you like it at 7.5, but you're concerned by 5.5?

well, make it 6.5 and get yourself +117...
Click to expand...

I feel like I'm being trapped, but after spending about 10 minutes looking at some Minny lines 5.5 looks about right. They layed 6.5 to Philly and 3 to Houston. The Clippers are still a horrible team. I'm sure they're more than happy actually getting two wins on the road trip. But they beat two Developmental League teams. Minny plays great D and will probably force them back into another 18+ turnovers. Screw it I"m convinced. I just want to see if more money comes in on the Clippers, because it'd be a dream to get them at -5.
 
Nice, you played it as well. I'm going to approach a personal record today for most plays in a day on the NBA. I can feel it coming.
 
Spurs result vs Portland and Denver result vs Bucks are both phoney. If the other team stands still and says hit me they get hit. Reality however is Spurs have been failing a lot of tests and could easily fail here. Currently will play Denver first half and at least a small ml bet Will need a lot more time on some of those games. GL
 
SN, I wouldn't be surprised to see Wally's pussy ass to sit with soreness, too.

Without Wally and Delonte, I like my Pacers bet even more.

:beer:
 
I was considering the Bobkittens at +420, but with neither Gerald Wallace or Brevin Knight, I'm unenthused by their chances for a win, at all. 4.2:1 is enticing..........but not today.

I am soliciting opinions on both

Chicago Bulls at around 150
or
New Orleans Hornets at 200 or better...(right now, 216 at Pinny)

How likely is it that the Bulls actually win at Washington in a high-scoring game?...much scoring I expect. Can the Bulls match Gilbachi's incredible shooting?

Hornets......a win for the Hawks over the Clippers, notwithstanding....these teams still represent the absolute ASS of the league. Hornets backups have been playing better together...is it enough to warrant a play at 2:1?

thoughtful opinions?
 
Was just trying to reiterate what you had been saying about Boston being a bad spot here. I just hate the vagueness of these reports though. With Wally they say it would be best to be cautious now watch him go play 35 minutes or as you said his wimp ass could sit out. Same with West its highly unlikely he goes But.....I'll wait till later but its Indy or pass...

I have idea what I am taking yet. Would be interested in your thoughts on the the hawks total though since you played the over. I actually have thought about team Over for ATL and team Under for NO....
 
Not to deter you but Chi is 1-9 past 10 @ Washington. Doesnt seem like a great spot with them still struggling away and Wash playing well in genreal past 20 games. Just an FYI
 
please feel free to deter me. The trend and Washington's great play (at home) are things I'm aware of but need reiterated sometimes...
 
SportsNut said:
Would be interested in your thoughts on the the hawks total though since you played the over.
Click to expand...


If Atlanta plays defense like they did against the Clippers, then this number may be about right, but if the Hornets are able to score like they have been recently, 90+, then I'll be quite surprised to see this one go under. I figured this should be up more than the mid 180s than in the upper mid 170s. Neither team, imo, has the great defense that Detroit and Indiana have...upper 80s low 90s is my prediction, I'll hope for more, and I'll lose if either team remains in the 70s.

:beer:
 
Good points. Alot of why I prefer the NO team under is cause how ATL has emphasized defense past 2 games and received praise from Woodson on it. They actually did a very sound job versus Indy last nite but wilted some in the 2nd H...about 43FG%...I am expecting 85 or 85.5 team total.... Really if you look since Paul went down 80 and 85 on the road, 99 Den ,89 GS , 68 Det , 93 Indy and 90 LAC at home....really defenses that are avg or bad...(Det excluded) by avg I mean in terms of ppg allowed on the road (what No scored was well below what those teams typically allowed). So versus a team emphasing defense and on the road I think it will be tough to best 85...probably 80-82 points high end.

With the Hawks offense they have struggled BUT being home against NO should be a cure all....only once in the past 10 games has NO allowed les then 92 which unfortunately the Hawks havent topped in 8 games. Basically something has to give the Hawks offense Or string of 90 something + games.

The way I have it right now it will probably slide slightily below the number thinking 93 -82 type....if No can compete though it could be the game where ATL scores a 100..

just how I had figured playing out.....thinking 175.5 was what the total would be....just came out have 85.5 & 91....BOL tough call for me
 
I actually like the bulls here as the wiz are 2-4 ats on two days rest just have the feeling the bulls at least cover just an opinion

wagering favors the prepared mind
 
BOL redbeards, always fun to see what you are selling and the juice on your plays, lol.

For Example:

redbearde said:
Spurs -6.5 (+134) 2 units

I am a sick degenerate fuck.

:beer:
Click to expand...

money;
 
Red,
I am in love with your card tonight. I have been trying to get a second opinion on the Knicks all day, but the line movement concerns me. I am with you on ALL of your spreads, and the trend pick of the day might wind up being Indy, even without factoring all those injuries in.
 
With you on the Lakers tonight red. Got them at +176

Good luck on the rest of your card.:cheers:
 
GL to us mac, I'm glad you got a good number on the Kobes!

Johnci, thanks for the kind words, bro. Let's win some tonight!

renew orleans, I like getting that kind of number.....makes me laugh too.
 
ML dogs: 52-92, 36.11%, -3.095 units
Spreads: 71-64-8, 49.65%, +23.764 units

Pretty good night. Too bad the LakeShow didn't bother to show...
 
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