NBA ML dogs 1.02

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
took yesterday off. It was necessary. I did get a nice lucky win with the over in the SC/UM game. hurray.

ML dogs: 48-82, 36.92%, -0.595 units
Spreads: 60-46-7, 53.1%, +36.364 units

This is uncharted waters for me. I usually do better with the ML dogs and not nearly this well with spreads, but I'll take it.

ML dogs to come tomorrow if I have time.

I hit these earlier:

Spurs -4.5 (+109) 2 units
Warriors -4 (+112) 2 units
Hornets +4.5 (+103) 2 units

Now, my kid puked like 6 times today. He couldn't keep any food down. If this shit is still going on tomorrow, I will likely spend much of the day in doctor's offices and possibly the horsepistol. So I may not be around...GL to you folks with the ML dogs. But not the Cavs or Hornets...

:beer:

ML plays recap

Clippers +174
 
Man, the warriors shit the bed on the road 2 nites ago I think. what makes you think they'll play any better at the NOK. NOK tends to play Defense which GSW doesn't.

Are you concerned about the flu bug at all with the spurs?
Also have noted that I've been doing well with the Spurs Under 2H and the Spurs line 2H (whether it's + or -).
 
driver, gpcyan3, thanks guys. GL to you too.

lfhlaw, GSW is not the most reliable of teams on the road. I understand that. I also understand that the Hornets are complete and utter ass right now. I bet and won the Hornets on the 29th against the Nuggets. It was time for a fluke there. This is not the time for a fluke. Baron Davis won't let that happen even without Jrich and Monta Ellis. Ellis could return anytime, and Murphy returned last game. So while the injuries are annoying, I think the Hornets are still much worse off. Richardson, for instance, is averagine a whopping 12 pts per game on shitass shooting percentage. THAT should go *up* without him...

I think Biedrins is capable of containing Frye (though probly not shutting him down), and Baron is more than a match for Pargo...

Also, this is something of a revenge spot for the Warriors, if you like that sort of thinking. But the Hornets won at home last time WITH Peja, Paul, West, and Jackson..........none of whom they have this time.

I predict and expect a DD win. 10 or 20(or more?) depends on the Warriors shooting percentage. If they hit 48-50%, I'd expect at least 10. At 55%, 15-20, and at 60% which they have done several times this year, expect a massive bombardment and an utter shellacking. 110-90 give or take a few... Thereabouts, anyway...

Or I could be completely wrong, and I could STILL get lucky and win in free throw exchange time.

or i could lose. Which I do at least 45% of the time...

:shake:
 
may your kid recover soon bro :shake: GL with the bets as well, my Spurs should roll.
 
Satyr, thanks bro.

Anyone have any thoughts on the Clippers at Orlando today?

Grant Hill is questionable. Is his pussy still sore?

Clippers are at 160 right now...
 
I wouldn't worry to much about Grant Hill. Magic looked pretty good without him against a Wade-less Heat team. Just remember the Clipps have won exactly 2 road games this year. That being said they should come up with some wins on this road trip as they play Atlanta, New Orleans and maybe a Wade-less Heat team tomorrow. I actully feel that winning their last three at home and a victory tonight would send this team in the right direction. Follow that up with trading Casell at the trade deadline and the Clippers should still find a way into the playoffs. Anyways back to tonight...do the clippers have a 1 in 6 chance of winning? Sure they've been winning 1 of 6 games on the road all year. I'd also agrue that they're playing as good as they have all year right now as well. HUGE road trip for them. One that'll make or break they're season IMO.
 
Good point Redbearde, also, it's nice when Duy agrees with ya.

Ive been on a piss poor roll lately in NCAAF and hopefully NBA will pick things up.
 
Gl with your plays red,
like them both.

Aslo, hope your kid gets rid of whatever flu bug he's got..!!
 
lfhlaw, sorry bout the bad time in NCAAF...fwiw, I don't see a lot of value left in any of the remaining lines. Might want to just watch them as a fan. Just my opinion. It is nice when DuY agrees, ain't it?

Killa, it's always a good sign to me when you agree as well. Thanks!

JPicks, yeah, those were kinda my thoughts, except added to it that the road games the clips have lost are to some pretty damned good teams, and I'm not so sure Orlando qualifies(beating a Wade-less and Jason Williams-less Heat team is not impressive). Clips have been on an upswing, and as you say this road trip could set the tone for their entire season...

Last four road losses were to San Antonio, Dallas, Utah, and..well,

Portland:down:

I suppose much depends on which Orlando team shows up tonight. But I don't think the Magic's last game is indicative of their level of play...the Heat just didn't have it in them. On the other hand, with everyone back except Grant, perhaps they'll be in early season form, again.

Is there some value there, yeah, I think so. Is there enough to dick with...not so sure about that.
 
My wife is currently feeding my son about 10 cheerios at a time with 10 minutes between servings...and while he's lurching occasionally, we still have no upchucking yet today. And that is good. He also has a fever now (he didn't yesterday), and I take that as a good sign, too. His body is now fighting whatever fucking bug is messing with him.

Still, it's heartbreaking to see your little boy miserable, famished, and not being able to give him as much food as he wants cus he'll just spew it back...

alas. Thanks for your kind words, guys.

back to regularly scheduled programming.

Orlando lost the last game and the Clips have owned them generally the last few years, but the Clips shot 60% last game...think they'll do it again? It wouldn't surprise me to see the Clips under 50% and the Magic over 50%...and will the Clips outrebound them significantly this time?

One glaring deficiency the Orlando team has is the free throw shooting. So if it's close at the end, and that strikes me as likely, then the Clips have a decent chance to get the bullshit win...
 
This dialog with myself I'm running through on this Clippers/Magic game is how I think through these things. Not so much science as art, eh?
 
Clippers +174 (pinny, right now)

I'm considering giving myself a small middle in the Warriors game...going to wait and see if I can get a point and a half or so at positive numbers...
 
Well I have to say I like LAC here. They have strung togther 5 solid efforts and I mentioned desipte being 2-10 away they have played zero eastern teams yet...they handled Boston and NY at home recently...so I like it should be -3 on the spread...

I understand your plays on the better teams on your spreads play. Both lines seem high to me but the Spurs revenge angle worries me and the jump from 3 to 5 worries me in NO...I just want to know why a high line got higher..did I miss something? The only thing I will sayis the home team is 9-1 and GS has defeated NO twice since that earlier loss...weird game but GS desperate for road wins could blowout NO as you predict..

the Knicks @ +440 have to be worth a look.....they have played SAC tough in recent years and a perefct example of overadjusting based on a team(s) last game...BOL bro! naturally with your son as well
 
Thanks. The knicks are interesting...especially with the injury wackiness going on there - especially the phantom Artest injury. Mike Bibby and Kenny Thomas are both questionable, though that line certainly suggests Bibby's playing. I think you're right, it's definitely over inflated there.

4.5 and 4 are higher than they ought to be. I sell points, so my lines should always look bad. I'm okay with eating the extra point...if it comes into play, I was utterly wrong about my wager. Spurs number is still at 3.5, and I do think that's right for that game, and I'm betting that the Spurs will win by several more than that...

The Warriors I explain above and I like it a lot, but if I can get a free shot at even a tiny middle, I'll take it. No risk, low chance, HIGH reward...yeah, I'm on that.

............looks like the Kings line is still going up...wtf? At +500 I might be absolutely forced into a Knicks play.
 
Steve Francis is day to day...that can only help the Knicks' chances if his useless overpaid ass sits out. again.
 
Warriors again tomorrow at Memphis...that too might provide some value. Juice already leaning toward the Grizz, too.
 
redbearde said:
Now, my kid puked like 6 times today. He couldn't keep any food down. If this shit is still going on tomorrow, I will likely spend much of the day in doctor's offices and possibly the horsepistol. So I may not be around...GL
Click to expand...


It's stories like this that have kept me single this long. BOL man. Hope the little guy is doing better.
 
redbearde said:
Steve Francis is day to day...that can only help the Knicks' chances if his useless overpaid ass sits out. again.
Click to expand...
Rumor is the injury will force him to retire
 
lost 6 cents, don't want to lose more.

Hornets +4.5 (+103) 2 units

I can hope for a 4 pt Warriors win...
 
red - great Clippers pick - I think they're prime for an upset win. Winners of three in a row & 7 of 10 up against the MAgic who have lost 7 of 10....
 
Knicks & Clippers have the best value today on the ML. And I think if you played Knicks, Clips, Hornets each on the ML you'll go 1-2 maybe 2-1.
 
Got the Warriors last night at -3 I think or I might have bought the hook but
at 81 for 75.
so If I take NOK+4.5 (+109) I get that middle and still get ML Dog $$$.

There's a small middle of the 4 you were talking about. Considering it......
WTF, I guess no way to lose right?, or at least all I lose is juice. maybe wait...........see if the line jumps more? still an hr I guess.
 
ML dog record: 44-67 +14.84 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

Well I'm on a 1-10 losing streak since Christmas, hopefully I can turn it around tonight.

New Orleans +178
NY Knicks +440

Good luck red.:cheers:
 
macdamn said:
ML dog record: 44-67 +14.84 units
Spread record: 6-5 +0.62 units

Well I'm on a 1-10 losing streak since Christmas, hopefully I can turn it around tonight.

New Orleans +178
NY Knicks +440

Good luck red.:cheers:
Click to expand...

Whoa, I'm hoping that 1 win was a doozy!!!!:cheers:
These are all ML dogs your records pertains too?
 
redbearde said:
lost 6 cents, don't want to lose more.

Hornets +4.5 (+103) 2 units

I can hope for a 4 pt Warriors win...
Click to expand...


Waited and Pinny had it at NOK+5, but since I had GSW-3, I took NOK+4.5 @ +112. so if GSW win, then I break even, if the NOK cover then a make a little, if GSW wins by 4, both bets win.:drinking:
 
Yep, all ML dogs, haven't played a spread in awhile.

The one win was Houston +192 against New Jersey on Dec 27th. The rest all losses:

12.26.06 New Orleans ML +198 at Seattle L
12.27.06 Miami ML +207 at Chicago L
12.27.06 Houston ML +192 at New Jersey W
12.27.06 New Orleans ML +305 at Portland L
12.28.06 Utah ML +246 at San Antonio L
12.28.06 Phoenix ML +116 at Dallas L
12.29.06 Toronto ML +145 vs Chicago L
12.29.06 Milwaukee ML +250 at Cleveland L
12.29.06 Seattle ML +321 at Minnesota L
12.29.06 Sacramento ML +146 at LA Clippers L
1.01.07 Charlotte ML +157 vs Minnesota L


Pretty nasty losing streak.
 
Yes I did play the clippers. And I'm pretty aggravated watching both that game and the Spurs game.
 
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