NBA ML dog Monday & Tuesday

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
I'm seeing the Raptors line plummet. ...interesting. I'm unclear as to why someone would back the Pacers right now. Okay, big win over Jersey. oooooo......it was a home and home, and really, the Nets just kinda gave up even before halftime.

Pacers recent games:

01/23/2008 at Chicago L 108 - 95 L (4½) P (203)
01/24/2008 at Milwaukee L 104 - 92 L (5) U (209)
01/26/2008 at Miami L 98 - 96 L (-1) U (202)
01/29/2008 vs Detroit L 110 - 104 W (7½) O (194½)
02/01/2008 vs Houston L 106 - 103 W (4) O (202)
02/02/2008 vs Orlando L 121 - 115 L (3½) O (214½)
02/05/2008 vs San Antonio L 116 - 89 L (5½) O (194)
02/06/2008 at New York W 103 - 100 W (3½) U (207½)
02/09/2008 vs Portland W 101 - 93 W (-5½) U (199)
02/12/2008 vs Boston L 104 - 97 L (4) U (205½)
02/13/2008 at Detroit L 96 - 80 L (10) U (197½)
02/20/2008 vs Cleveland L 106 - 97 L (2) U (203½)
02/22/2008 vs New Jersey W 113 - 103 W (-5½) O (203)
02/23/2008 at New Jersey L 102 - 91 L (4) U (203½)
Click to expand...

that's wins over the eastern powerhouses of Jersey and New York plus a severely slumping Portland.

Perhaps I'm simply 'the public', but I have trouble taking these Pacers seriously. They're not even .500 (SU) at home(11-16), they're 11th in the East (somehow not really in the playoff hunt), and Toronto is actually .500 on the road...which is actually pretty good in my mind. The only good thing we can really say about Indy is that they're at least a game ahead of Milwaukee.

...that's right. One Game Ahead of milwaukee.....

not that I'm particularly clouded by trends, but there's a lot of meaningful points to be made for this game with em. Here are a few particularly notable ones:

Toronto is 4-2 ATS & SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS & SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Toronto is 4-1 ATS & SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana

Indiana is 1-4 ATS & SU in its last 5 games
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indiana is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
Indiana is 1-4 ATS & SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Click to expand...

and while this is true:

Indiana is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Toronto
Click to expand...

much of that was before this year when tinsley & o'neal weren't Out Of It so much. This year's Pacers team is quite different from years' past (and the Raptors have gotten better), and I'm not so sure ancient history is particularly relevant here.

still....not sure I want to play this yet. With the line dropping so much, perhaps there's a reason like the Raptors missed their plane AND they all got food poisoning. Haven't seen ANYTHING yet...
 
Thats a very interesting qoute.

West getting too tough for yas Brandon?? Go from first seed to 10th seed in a months time. lol
 
Kobe Bryant got chucked from the sonics game while the Lakers were up 31 in the 3rd quarter. I'm not sure what the fuck that was about. The ref who did it is the only one to ever chuck Michael Jordan. heh.

Lakeshow cruised to a win anyway...
 
redbearde said:
I think BAR has a real good thinking about the Detroit/Denver game.

Pistons +108
Click to expand...
I am guessing matchbook?

I actually was suprised. I sat here on puter for 3 hours last night waiting for the line to come out. Already had the opening number from lvsc to work off but thought that it may be a hit up by time I woke up. Well, it was at DET -1 but quickly went to PK at dimes and then BM followed suite as well.
 
yeah. shit. forgot the commission. It's actually Pistons +105.84.

and several of them are up to Denver -1.

not sure what's up with that.
 
B.A.R. said:
My gues is we see a 2.5 to 3 when lines come out here shortly.

Now, I know Brandon Roy is out..but jeebus...15 at home for LA. Let them keep winning and they are a contender but the inflation of a very public team will give us some spots in the upcoming weeks.
Click to expand...

yeah, but I don't think now's the time. They're still covering stupid high lines.

This DD chalk on the road...and covering it...is getting silly.
 
hell, I thought Sonics +10 at home was value...not fading the lakeshow yet...waiting for them to get some stupid ass line against another great team...

I couldn't believe the Suns were favored against them. That was bizarre.
 
redbearde=redbearde

36_11_6.gif
 
Red,

I just added you as a friend over there.

Not fair, your friends with AKCHick over there :(
 
Yeah, well, we're just friends. It seems she has enough overweight, hairy, and married-to-not-her men in her life that I just won't fit.

I have accepted your banned friendship.

:36_11_6:
 
B.A.R. said:
BAR=LuvDaConsensus:seeya:
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

I got on that thread early this morning when I saw it.

No one even bashed or said anything at that point, I have no idea why.

Another member of the dorm room clover crew.
Like you said, if thats not a reason to take indy ML, i dont know what is.


Of course, wallstreet deleted my post, just like he does all of them :down2:
 
it sounds like gerald wallace has been smoking too much weed

drowsiness, headaches

PUT IT DOWN GERALD, PUT IT DOWN


good luck today red, on detroit as well, and you got a much better price then i did (+100 here).
 
Hey Red...you are big-time now.

The leader of the now defunct UES is fading you


ROTFLMAO!
 
CapNumberTwo said:
:36_11_6:

I got on that thread early this morning when I saw it.

No one even bashed or said anything at that point, I have no idea why.

Another member of the dorm room clover crew.
Like you said, if thats not a reason to take indy ML, i dont know what is.


Of course, wallstreet deleted my post, just like he does all of them :down2:
Click to expand...


Priceless
 
it never had a chance. the 'leader' was just another lazy whore who wanted to organize his tailing life.
 
LOL at YOLO. The blowup on that one came quicker then we even expected.

What a joke. That circle jerk didnt even last a week.
Two days. Two picks. 50%, minus the juice. Goodbye.
 
Mother Fucker....I guess the gambling gods didnt want my opinion and theory expressed on the whole line movement issue or the Pacers game...

Nice Huge writeup wasted..

The important part was looking at the Pacers game. They have actually played fairly well the past 8 games home. Take the L4 games for them they beat Port & NJN when favored( and covered). They were home dogs to Cle and Boston , in one they trailed vs Bost by 1 with 3 to play and at the same point I believe they were tied vs Cle ( at least within a possession).

The 4 game stand they had was extremely tough before that. Det , Hou , Orl and SA .. about as tough as you can get.

If you look they covered the 1st H vs all of them. The part where they fell apart always to seemed to be the 3rd quarter. In fact they lost to SA by 27 and were down just 2 I think at half. Anyway looking at Indy 1st H , Tor 3rd q and 2nd H.....


Much more well written and indepth the 1st time but I dont have the time or patience to do it again..:cheers:
 
Another thing was look at Toronto in B2B situations. This is sort of pulled from the pages of Tuck capping 101. Whatever the occurrence is in the 1st game the 2nd game tends to be opposite. So if they win SU they lose SU the next night and if they lost they usually bounce back with a win. Which is of interest since Tor is favored so they must win to cover and they are off a win...think in the past 11 B2Bs 9 of them have been opposite.. and 9 of the 13 have been opposite this year and ONLY twice in the 13 situations have they won both games in a B2B....:cheers:
 
thanks for thoughts SN. Wish I coulda seen the long version. :)

BeLIEve, I'm not going to be fading the Cs with a shit team anytime soon.

SF_Capper, they might win, but I want more than that - TP is healthy, and Bibby isn't. There's NO way he'll be able to stop any penetration tonight. Only way Atlanta wins is if they manage to outshoot the Spurs. As hot as Ginobli's been, I just don't believe it.
 
I considered the 2H, but I wanted more than Toronto +1.5 2H. That's a distinct expectation of the Raptors winning. I expect that, too....damnit.

if you think the Pacers are going to win, then this is your big chance to get a damned nice value bet.
 
yup yup .. no betting against lbj, if he can get nearly triple doubles with the guys who cant ball.. what numbers he gonna put up with the upgrades?? .. cavs or no bet .. going to sleep on it .. gl red


:tiphat:
 
if Lebron gets a triple double, then that's an indication of team problems, I think.
He shouldn't be averaging DDs in rebounds anymore. Between Smith, Gooden, Z, and Ben, the rebounding should be square.

His assists should go up.

I *love* Delonte West's addition, tho...he's a PG who can create his own shot off the dribble, and that alongside Lebron plus a shooter, plus 2 good rebounders....

just...wow. In a month, this game would be more like -7 or -8. These cavs have the capability (and I think the likelihood) of being great.

:shake:
 
what the fuck is going on with the Suns line?

Why has this grown 3 points? I'm giving serious thought to the ML dog here in Memphis...it's a big opportunity against a weak Suns team.
 
any interest on minny +265? home doggie in potentially lower scoring game (for utah anyway). utah in a look ahead spot
 
I can see it...I'm just not too into taking shots with bad teams against decent to good teams.

I'm considering Memphis at 7:1 or so. but that would again be taking a bad team against a decent to good team.
 
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