23-21 +8.50 units
Nice night last night no doubt. Liked the play and BDK analysis put me over the top as far as weighting it. Glad I did, ended up as a very easy winner. Congrats to evreyone who hit it. As for the other games, what a second half by LA. I may have played them second half if I was at home after the comeback and Kobe buzzer beater. You could just sense the momentum shift. The Knicks didn't even try. Very sad indeed.
I totally understand your thinking. The NBA is so rough because you can be covering a spread by 15 points in the 4th quarter and still have to gut out a win. I guess its just my experieneces with ML's on short numbers that scares me away. I also would have to have a book with better numbers to consider that. I also agree that no Pinny hurts a lot. Thats the difference between myself being up a tad in CFB and down this year. The juice. Look at this year in NBA. Twenty-One losses. My average juice with Pinny was +100 to -102 is my guess...and thats being fair. Thats about 2 units right there.
This is always a fun subkect. I do believe in reverse line movement. The thing is we have to look at many factors. Public percentages can be skewed. We just use whats availale to us. Remember, 90 percent can be on one side but some heavy hitters hit gthe other side creating that reverse movement. I like to use that as a tool in capping, not as a rule. If you can find other reasons to support your play then you have a great play.
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Okay, some interesting movement since the LVSC openers...for example..
Philly has went from 3.5 to 2
New York opened 1 and is now getting 2
Opening Totals:
Wash-197
Cle-191.5
Atl-190
NY-197.5
Minny-190
Miami-186
Port-200
Utah-209
Orl-211.5
Sea-212
LAC-204.5
Two small plays tonight:
Denver -8.5
New Orleans -1 1.5 units
Saturday Early Openers:
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#c48f1b border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 7:35 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>503 Philadelphia</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>504 New Jersey</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-8.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>505 Minnesota</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>506 Memphis</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>MIN-C-Ratliff-Questionable
MEM-C-Milicic-Questionable
</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 208
-9.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>507 Dallas</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>508 New Orleans</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -3.0
198</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>509 Detroit</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>510 Milwaukee</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>MIL-F-Mason-Questionable
</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -4.0
193</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
</TD></TR><TR><TD>511 Charlotte</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>512 Chicago</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WGN
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-6.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Nice night last night no doubt. Liked the play and BDK analysis put me over the top as far as weighting it. Glad I did, ended up as a very easy winner. Congrats to evreyone who hit it. As for the other games, what a second half by LA. I may have played them second half if I was at home after the comeback and Kobe buzzer beater. You could just sense the momentum shift. The Knicks didn't even try. Very sad indeed.
also..sheer numbers. We laugh at sheepfucker for laying -130 ............
well, consider the difference between -110 (or even the MB standard -102) compared to +125...
35 cents difference per dollar wagered. for a bucket. shrug. I'm not telling you that you're wrong, because I have indeed lost a fair amount of MLs by a point or two, but it most assuredly isn't as high as 30%.
I've considered recently that instead of laying -1 at -110 that I should consider laying -120 to -130 for a ML play instead....
once it gets to 150, that strikes me as insane. I haven't done it much, mind you...just when it's been -1 thus far. but I'm something of a juice German, and I fucking hate that I can't have pinny. I swear....I'd be up 20gs again this year in CFB if I coulda had pinny value...damnit. Still, as tough as it's been for folks, I guess I should be happy I'm up at all, eh?
I totally understand your thinking. The NBA is so rough because you can be covering a spread by 15 points in the 4th quarter and still have to gut out a win. I guess its just my experieneces with ML's on short numbers that scares me away. I also would have to have a book with better numbers to consider that. I also agree that no Pinny hurts a lot. Thats the difference between myself being up a tad in CFB and down this year. The juice. Look at this year in NBA. Twenty-One losses. My average juice with Pinny was +100 to -102 is my guess...and thats being fair. Thats about 2 units right there.
i know a lot of folks here hate the public fade, go with vegas, blah blah blah bull shit. however, i always consider where the number is and why. case in point, miami and charlotte early this week. heat -7 and 2/3 of public taking the points with charlotte. that line never adjusted and just held steady at 7. i personally look at those lines and can't help but think the books dont want action on miami. i pound them and it cashes. Foolishly and luckily i pounded the pistons last night (thanks again for the 5 day heads up). As everyone said yesterday, vegas wanted no pistons action. The line help steady at 8.5 and everyone plays cleveland. i played the stons and cash. when i see a number that logically does not make sense, i cant ever think a mistake was made by the oddsmakers. that said, logic says even though both hou and gds are off b2b's, and 5 in 7s, you gotta think the clear advantage lies with gds. i expected them to be favored by 2, not a 2 point dog. i know money moves lines, and here the percentage of bets (not money bet) is about even, why is vegas 'inviting' us to play gds with great 'line value?'
i like gds as well, but i'm scared off by the line movement. i see the lakers as the best play on the board tonight. again, you have 2/3 public on denver, yet the line moves 1/2 point in favor of denver from 5 to 5.5? just like miami/charlotte, memphis/jersey (i did play that one), philly/bucks, clev/det, etc, the lakers seem to fall into the same scenario. all these games have had steady lines and heavy betting on the public side.
sorry for the longwinded post, especially since im doing this on my pda and it fucking takes forever...lol. just want ur thoughts on my thinking. oh, i was on sacto last night as well, and bar the last few minutes they just shit the bed. but again, that was another on that really should have hit.
gl with gds and hope it hits.
This is always a fun subkect. I do believe in reverse line movement. The thing is we have to look at many factors. Public percentages can be skewed. We just use whats availale to us. Remember, 90 percent can be on one side but some heavy hitters hit gthe other side creating that reverse movement. I like to use that as a tool in capping, not as a rule. If you can find other reasons to support your play then you have a great play.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Okay, some interesting movement since the LVSC openers...for example..
Philly has went from 3.5 to 2
New York opened 1 and is now getting 2
Opening Totals:
Wash-197
Cle-191.5
Atl-190
NY-197.5
Minny-190
Miami-186
Port-200
Utah-209
Orl-211.5
Sea-212
LAC-204.5
Two small plays tonight:
Denver -8.5
New Orleans -1 1.5 units
Saturday Early Openers:
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#c48f1b border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 7:35 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>503 Philadelphia</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>504 New Jersey</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-8.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right>
MEM-C-Milicic-Questionable
</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 208
-9.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>507 Dallas</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>508 New Orleans</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -3.0
198</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -4.0
193</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-6.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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