NBA Friday Thoughts 11.30.07(one added play)

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
23-21 +8.50 units

Nice night last night no doubt. Liked the play and BDK analysis put me over the top as far as weighting it. Glad I did, ended up as a very easy winner. Congrats to evreyone who hit it. As for the other games, what a second half by LA. I may have played them second half if I was at home after the comeback and Kobe buzzer beater. You could just sense the momentum shift. The Knicks didn't even try. Very sad indeed.

also..sheer numbers. We laugh at sheepfucker for laying -130 ............

well, consider the difference between -110 (or even the MB standard -102) compared to +125...

35 cents difference per dollar wagered. for a bucket. shrug. I'm not telling you that you're wrong, because I have indeed lost a fair amount of MLs by a point or two, but it most assuredly isn't as high as 30%.

I've considered recently that instead of laying -1 at -110 that I should consider laying -120 to -130 for a ML play instead....

once it gets to 150, that strikes me as insane. I haven't done it much, mind you...just when it's been -1 thus far. but I'm something of a juice German, and I fucking hate that I can't have pinny. I swear....I'd be up 20gs again this year in CFB if I coulda had pinny value...damnit. Still, as tough as it's been for folks, I guess I should be happy I'm up at all, eh?

I totally understand your thinking. The NBA is so rough because you can be covering a spread by 15 points in the 4th quarter and still have to gut out a win. I guess its just my experieneces with ML's on short numbers that scares me away. I also would have to have a book with better numbers to consider that. I also agree that no Pinny hurts a lot. Thats the difference between myself being up a tad in CFB and down this year. The juice. Look at this year in NBA. Twenty-One losses. My average juice with Pinny was +100 to -102 is my guess...and thats being fair. Thats about 2 units right there.

i know a lot of folks here hate the public fade, go with vegas, blah blah blah bull shit. however, i always consider where the number is and why. case in point, miami and charlotte early this week. heat -7 and 2/3 of public taking the points with charlotte. that line never adjusted and just held steady at 7. i personally look at those lines and can't help but think the books dont want action on miami. i pound them and it cashes. Foolishly and luckily i pounded the pistons last night (thanks again for the 5 day heads up). As everyone said yesterday, vegas wanted no pistons action. The line help steady at 8.5 and everyone plays cleveland. i played the stons and cash. when i see a number that logically does not make sense, i cant ever think a mistake was made by the oddsmakers. that said, logic says even though both hou and gds are off b2b's, and 5 in 7s, you gotta think the clear advantage lies with gds. i expected them to be favored by 2, not a 2 point dog. i know money moves lines, and here the percentage of bets (not money bet) is about even, why is vegas 'inviting' us to play gds with great 'line value?'

i like gds as well, but i'm scared off by the line movement. i see the lakers as the best play on the board tonight. again, you have 2/3 public on denver, yet the line moves 1/2 point in favor of denver from 5 to 5.5? just like miami/charlotte, memphis/jersey (i did play that one), philly/bucks, clev/det, etc, the lakers seem to fall into the same scenario. all these games have had steady lines and heavy betting on the public side.

sorry for the longwinded post, especially since im doing this on my pda and it fucking takes forever...lol. just want ur thoughts on my thinking. oh, i was on sacto last night as well, and bar the last few minutes they just shit the bed. but again, that was another on that really should have hit.

gl with gds and hope it hits.

This is always a fun subkect. I do believe in reverse line movement. The thing is we have to look at many factors. Public percentages can be skewed. We just use whats availale to us. Remember, 90 percent can be on one side but some heavy hitters hit gthe other side creating that reverse movement. I like to use that as a tool in capping, not as a rule. If you can find other reasons to support your play then you have a great play.

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Okay, some interesting movement since the LVSC openers...for example..

Philly has went from 3.5 to 2
New York opened 1 and is now getting 2

Opening Totals:
Wash-197
Cle-191.5
Atl-190
NY-197.5
Minny-190
Miami-186
Port-200
Utah-209
Orl-211.5
Sea-212
LAC-204.5

Two small plays tonight:

Denver -8.5
New Orleans -1 1.5 units



Saturday Early Openers:

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#c48f1b border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 7:35 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>503 Philadelphia</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>504 New Jersey</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-8.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right>
notes.gif
</TD></TR><TR><TD>505 Minnesota</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>506 Memphis</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>MIN-C-Ratliff-Questionable
MEM-C-Milicic-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 208
-9.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:05 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>507 Dallas</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>508 New Orleans</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -3.0
198</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
notes.gif
</TD></TR><TR><TD>509 Detroit</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>510 Milwaukee</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>MIL-F-Mason-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -4.0
193</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>12/01 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>511 Charlotte</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>512 Chicago</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WGN

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 184
-6.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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1. Chris Paul continues to be the engine that fuels the Hornets attack, but he has already missed time this season. How concerned are you about his ability to stay healthy?

Jim Eichenhofer: At this point, not that concerned. He appeared in 78 games during his Rookie of the Year campaign, which is something not many first-year NBA players can say. In his second year, he was sidelined for a total of 18 games, with 17 of those due to a right ankle sprain. The injury resulted from something that is unfortunate but relatively common in basketball – Paul landed on the foot of an opposing player while passing the ball to a teammate. This season, he missed two games in mid-November with another right ankle sprain, but was quickly back to 100 percent physically and has been superb this season. He’s been in the NBA’s top five in assists and steals, so he appears to be fine.

2. After a torrid stretch to start the season, the Hornets have hit a bit of a skid of late, losing four of the last five. Do you attribute that to anything in particular?

Jim Eichenhofer: It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what’s been behind the mini-slump, but perhaps the most obvious factor was that Paul missed the first game (vs. Orlando) of this five-game stretch. Then Tyson Chandler was out the next game (vs. Indiana) and the Hornets dropped that one too. One possibility is that the team lost some of the momentum it had gained during a franchise-record 9-2 start, after the first lineup changes of the season were necessitated. Plus, one of the other losses during this 1-4 stretch came at Utah, which is definitely no easy place to try to secure a road win.

3. Julian Wright was a great college player who some thought would need to improve his perimeter skills to transition to the NBA. How do you assess his progress early into his rookie campaign?

Jim Eichenhofer: From what I saw of Julian during summer league, I think he has the potential to be a special NBA player. He’s extremely versatile and possesses outstanding ballhandling and passing skills, particularly for a 6-foot-8 forward. With that said, in a few regular-season cameos he has been a bit mistake-prone (7 turnovers in 39 minutes) and that’s helped keep his stints on the floor brief. He’s made a few poor decisions on passes and dribbled into traffic a couple times, but from every indication, that’s uncharacteristic of him. Like you said, he was an excellent player at Kansas. To his credit, he realizes what he needs to do better to get more playing time. After he got a DNP in the team’s opener he told me: “I understand that you’ve always got to earn your minutes. That’s just how it is. You have to earn the coaches’ trust. I came to a team that has a lot of veterans and is a deep squad. It’s really up to me to work hard and be ready when my number’s called.”

4. David West doesn't get talked about too often, but he has picked up right where he left off from last season. Do you think he is a player who could become one of the top power forwards in the West, or is he close to reaching his ceiling?

Jim Eichenhofer: I think he’s already in that second tier of power forwards, even in the Western Conference, which keep in mind lost Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph to trades this summer (and the Clippers’ Elton Brand unfortunately may miss the season due to injury). West is one of our four players on the All-Star Game ballot. Although he’s probably a longshot to be in the All-Star Game when it’s played here on Feb. 17, he may be closer to an All-Star than most people realize. I don’t think he’s hit his ceiling, because he has improved every year, including this one. He entered this season with a career-high of 34 points, but has already scored 40 at Memphis, along with a 34-point game in Portland. His scoring and rebounding stats are both up again, despite the fact that the team around him is improved from 2006-07. To me, that’s a very good sign. This is only his fifth NBA season and he’s 27. His prime is probably still a couple years away.

5. We talked about this some during our podcast on Monday, but when last Hawks fans saw Hilton Armstrong he was dropping 24 and 15 on us in the preseason (though it was a Hawks win - booyah!). Do you see him becoming an important fixture in the Hornets rotation this season and beyond?

Jim Eichenhofer: No slight to the other players who are coming off Byron Scott’s bench, but I was envisioning and hoping that Armstrong would be the first sub to enter the game every night and play about 25 minutes a night. I thought if he played up to his potential, he would join Tyson Chandler in giving the Hornets one of the NBA’s best center combinations.

As we discussed, though, he hasn’t yet been able to match his impressive preseason play. It may just be a matter of being patient. Hilton has clearly demonstrated that the ability is there; now it’s just a matter of doing it in the regular season. One interesting aspect to note of Hilton’s background is that he was basically the fifth option throughout his college career for some loaded UConn teams (featuring guys like Rudy Yag, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone). It’s still pretty early in his development. He just turned 23 this month and has only played in 71 career NBA games.
 
Interesting plays. You obviously think tonight is the night Denver ends their shitty play and busts out?
 
BAR any word on Melo? I figured hed get a 1 game suspension for the choke move last night
 
Interesting plays. You obviously think tonight is the night Denver ends their shitty play and busts out?
Yes I do. They didn't expend bu t24 minutes of energy last night. I like the revenge angle as well and the Clipshow is just shitty right now. Just watching that game last night I could sense the frustration in Melo and Iverson. Just a hunch they both bust out tonight. They played great for a half last night then the LA shooting blitzed them.
 
BAR any word on Melo? I figured hed get a 1 game suspension for the choke move last night
I looked at several sites and found nothing. Obviously if any word comes out I will hedge as quick as possible. I think nothing comes out though. Game wouldn't have made it on the board.
 
Any particular angle on the NOH play?

Atlanta is banged up and not playing well at all right now. In Brians thread you can see the line-up they put out last game. Simply not good. Like I said, this Atlanta team will gel as season progresses and have some nive moments but the growing pains are in full effect. Chris Paul should simply own this game as well.
 
Yea if Marvin sits out as well thats huge. Hornets are deep and athletic with better scorers across the board. Chris Paul should control the game.. Tyson should control the boards.
 
Baltimore style..Sasha and Crittenton came in and completely killed my under as well. They were running and gunning
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Hornets also got more than one day of rest for the first time this entire season and Byron probably was all over them after our disappointing lost to the T-Wolves
 
"It wasn't intentionally done," Anthony said. "I hope people don't overreact."

Just like it wasnt your weed carmelo..:bong:
 
We laugh at sheepfucker for laying -130 ............

Correction.

It's Porky that routinely lays -130.

Sheepfucker does too, just rarely. Instead, he's chosen to lose money by picking 40% winners.

I'm watching that system closely.
 
BAR, can I get your thoughts on the Suns laying 5.5 to the Magic tonight? Also, I assume Denver is a 1 unit play since you did not distinguish?

GL tonight
 
Atlanta is banged up and not playing well at all right now. In Brians thread you can see the line-up they put out last game. Simply not good. Like I said, this Atlanta team will gel as season progresses and have some nive moments but the growing pains are in full effect. Chris Paul should simply own this game as well.

I agree that the Hawks could be playing better, but I don't think you can say the Atlanta Hawks are ever playing poorly when they've won 3 of their last 4 games. For the Hawks, they're playing out of their minds, haha. The team that isn't playing well is the Hornets.
Also, the lineup isn't as bad as it looks because Childress is basically the starter, but they start West because he sets the tempo because he plays like an insane person (Marvin is probably gonna play anyway). Childress will play about 35min. Chris Paul will dominate, but his presence is also a reason for the Hawks to get up for this game since the Hawks have got to be sick of hearing about him every day.
Like I said in ABCS's thread, I don't think the Hawks are that bad of a play, just because they've been winning a few games lately, but I'm not sure the lineup is the reason to do it. BOL on your other play though.
 
GL BAR. Skipping Denver tonight, not too extatic about them being b2b, that's what puts me away. Couldn't take the Clippshow +9 either.

Like NOH.

:cheers:
 
The reason the Hornets lost was Paul was out 1 game then Chandler was out. Good Luck winning in Utah.
 
<table bordercolordark="#000000" bordercolorlight="#000000" bgcolor="#000000" border="1" bordercolor="#000000" width="665"><tbody><tr><td bordercolor="#333300" align="right" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top" width="2%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2.[/FONT]</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
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</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Atlanta
[/FONT]
</td> <td bgcolor="#3b614a" width="32%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Marvin Williams 6-8 228 SF UNC Fr.[/FONT]</td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" bordercolor="#333300" align="center" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top" width="2%">
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]32.[/FONT]​
</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top" width="5%">
</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*LA Clippers [/FONT]</td> <td bgcolor="#3b614a" width="32%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Daniel Ewing 6-3 180 PG Duke Sr.[/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr> <td bordercolor="#333300" align="right" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top" width="2%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]3.[/FONT]</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
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</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*Utah [/FONT]</td> <td bgcolor="#3b614a" width="32%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Deron Williams 6-3 202 PG Illinois Jr.[/FONT]</td> <td style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" bordercolor="#333300" align="center" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top" width="2%">
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]33.[/FONT]​
</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top" width="5%">
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</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NewOrleans [/FONT]</td> <td bgcolor="#3b614a" width="32%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Brandon Bass 6-7 252 PF LSU So.[/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr> <td bordercolor="#333300" align="right" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top" width="2%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]4.[/FONT]</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top">
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</td> <td bordercolorlight="#000033" bgcolor="#3b614a" valign="top">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NewOrleans [/FONT]</td> <td bgcolor="#3b614a" width="32%">[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chris Paul 6-1 178 PG Wake Forest So.[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
BAR, can I get your thoughts on the Suns laying 5.5 to the Magic tonight? Also, I assume Denver is a 1 unit play since you did not distinguish?

GL tonight
Sorry, I skipped over this earlier. I actually just added Phoenix to the mix. Yes, if a unit is not noted then it is a base one unit play
 
Thanks Suns for ruining what was shaping up to be a good night

Lets get Denver in and show a profit.
 
dude how the fuck dont u get pissed from losing certain wagers....u fuckin unreal. Do u just not express it? u gotta get pissed off certain bets. Surely u been on some fucked up wagers.
 
no wait, i take that back. I remebered early in cfb. dude im fucked up u on AIM right now????
LOL-my AIM messes up my computer lately..waiting on a guy to look at it...so I just use MSN now.

I still get frustarted at times...but I only saw last minute of play...got home suprised to see it that close...

Its the NBA...for every lucky one..one of these happens.
 
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