Satyr
Paster of Muppets
Coming off an ugly loss last night, let's hope to turn it around today and get back to winning mode.
Warriors (-1,5) (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Tailed the Bulls last night with full intention of fading them here, and fading them big. Had they managed to win last night this would probably pump the price even more and create a possible letdown spot even more evident. However I'm still liking the Warriors here.
The new Sacramento team has excelled to a solid bunch in the last few weeks, but with full squad I rate GSW a tad higher than the Bulls' yesterday's opponents, especially at home. Not necessarily when you look at the players individually, but as a team I got the impression of the Warriors as a more cohesive unit in front of their fans, despite being constantly forced to reshuffle the lineup.
Furthermore, I don't see this one as a battle on the glass, but a clash of two small ball line-ups (minus Wallace), and a game decided on the backcourt. Here's why I like it so much:
Bulls' guards are in a permanent funk, and I don't see them bouncing back from the awful FG% until they get home and get Nocioni back to the line-up, this is just wearing them down too much, they are very unlikely to beat anyone on the road shooting 33% or similar, they need a scoring effort tonight and considering these guys are on a tough road trip along the west coast, missing a 15.0 PPG man, having problems inside the paint, plus their leading scorer Ben Gordon is shooting combined 7-of-38 from the field, including 1-11 from the 3 pt range. In his last 5 games Gordon has scored 7,11,33,12,17, meaning his only good performance came against the Blazers.
A typical home team playing against another home team. The Warriors are 17-8 when playing in their building this season, and are 4 wins short of a .500 record.
Baron Davis is back (listed as probable, but he is expected to play) and so is Monta Ellis, who had a tough game against the Wolves but I look for both to step up here. The Warriors have won seven straight at home against the Bulls (28-22), though the teams have split the season series every year since 2001-02.
The Warriors are a different team since the trade, they didn't get the post-trade boost unlike the Pacers, but they're still starting to show character with the new guys in their team. They still lack presence on the low post, their D is still sub par, but the way they've been playing at home they are just fine with their up tempo ball, and playing against road weary Bulls might be a good spot to improve on their already impressive home w/l ratio. New guys like Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington and even Sarunas Jasikevicius (who scored 20 in Minnesota) are stepping up scoring wise and with Davis healthy this could be a long night for the Bulls.
Golden State will host the Hawks on Sunday so this game is crucial to start another winning streak and climb closer to .500.
Heat ML (2.29 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Miami are a team on a mission. Their goal was to reach .500 again before the All Star break and they can get it done tonight in Cleveland.
O'Neal is healthy again, and has averaged 16.8 points in just over 23 minutes per contest in his last four games. Moreover he has brought back power in the paint, Zo doesn't have to log on for so long any more, and the team, lead by Dwyane Wade (who has scored 20 or more in 16 consecutive games) is just flying at the moment.
Cavs, on the other hand are truly inconsistent right now. Furthermore, LeBron James, who is bothered by a sprained toe, has averaged just 16.8 PPG this month.
Miami beat Cleveland 92-89 last Thursday in the first meeting between the teams. Wade had 41 points, including 24 in the fourth quarter as the Heat came back from a 12-point deficit with less than eight minutes left. I don't see this one as a revenge chance for the Cavs, I don't buy into that anyways. Motivation is always at the same level, I don't see a potential letdown for the Heat here, who have seen Jason Kapono and Udonis Haslem excel into more than just role players. With a couple of treys by Posey, solid night by Antoine Walker, and of course limited number of turnovers, I see Heat going out of this one with a W.
Leans/thoughts and possible other picks coming up later.
:cheers:
Warriors (-1,5) (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 7 units
Tailed the Bulls last night with full intention of fading them here, and fading them big. Had they managed to win last night this would probably pump the price even more and create a possible letdown spot even more evident. However I'm still liking the Warriors here.
The new Sacramento team has excelled to a solid bunch in the last few weeks, but with full squad I rate GSW a tad higher than the Bulls' yesterday's opponents, especially at home. Not necessarily when you look at the players individually, but as a team I got the impression of the Warriors as a more cohesive unit in front of their fans, despite being constantly forced to reshuffle the lineup.
Furthermore, I don't see this one as a battle on the glass, but a clash of two small ball line-ups (minus Wallace), and a game decided on the backcourt. Here's why I like it so much:
Bulls' guards are in a permanent funk, and I don't see them bouncing back from the awful FG% until they get home and get Nocioni back to the line-up, this is just wearing them down too much, they are very unlikely to beat anyone on the road shooting 33% or similar, they need a scoring effort tonight and considering these guys are on a tough road trip along the west coast, missing a 15.0 PPG man, having problems inside the paint, plus their leading scorer Ben Gordon is shooting combined 7-of-38 from the field, including 1-11 from the 3 pt range. In his last 5 games Gordon has scored 7,11,33,12,17, meaning his only good performance came against the Blazers.
A typical home team playing against another home team. The Warriors are 17-8 when playing in their building this season, and are 4 wins short of a .500 record.
Baron Davis is back (listed as probable, but he is expected to play) and so is Monta Ellis, who had a tough game against the Wolves but I look for both to step up here. The Warriors have won seven straight at home against the Bulls (28-22), though the teams have split the season series every year since 2001-02.
The Warriors are a different team since the trade, they didn't get the post-trade boost unlike the Pacers, but they're still starting to show character with the new guys in their team. They still lack presence on the low post, their D is still sub par, but the way they've been playing at home they are just fine with their up tempo ball, and playing against road weary Bulls might be a good spot to improve on their already impressive home w/l ratio. New guys like Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington and even Sarunas Jasikevicius (who scored 20 in Minnesota) are stepping up scoring wise and with Davis healthy this could be a long night for the Bulls.
Golden State will host the Hawks on Sunday so this game is crucial to start another winning streak and climb closer to .500.
Heat ML (2.29 @ Pinnacle) 6 units
Miami are a team on a mission. Their goal was to reach .500 again before the All Star break and they can get it done tonight in Cleveland.
O'Neal is healthy again, and has averaged 16.8 points in just over 23 minutes per contest in his last four games. Moreover he has brought back power in the paint, Zo doesn't have to log on for so long any more, and the team, lead by Dwyane Wade (who has scored 20 or more in 16 consecutive games) is just flying at the moment.
Cavs, on the other hand are truly inconsistent right now. Furthermore, LeBron James, who is bothered by a sprained toe, has averaged just 16.8 PPG this month.
Miami beat Cleveland 92-89 last Thursday in the first meeting between the teams. Wade had 41 points, including 24 in the fourth quarter as the Heat came back from a 12-point deficit with less than eight minutes left. I don't see this one as a revenge chance for the Cavs, I don't buy into that anyways. Motivation is always at the same level, I don't see a potential letdown for the Heat here, who have seen Jason Kapono and Udonis Haslem excel into more than just role players. With a couple of treys by Posey, solid night by Antoine Walker, and of course limited number of turnovers, I see Heat going out of this one with a W.
Leans/thoughts and possible other picks coming up later.
:cheers:
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