NBA Finals Game 7 Plays
- Thread starter raems
- Start date
Point blank, I think tonight is the perfect storm for an absolutely slow, ugly, bloodbath of a game. There are many different factors I typically look for in an under, all of which are coming together in tonight’s Game 7 matchup.
I did some math based on the basketball-reference.com metrics: games in Miami this series have played out to an average pace of 84.17, while games in SA have played out to an average pace of 91.3. For context, the difference in pace of 7.1 possessions per game is almost identically equivalent to the difference in pace between the league’s fastest team (Houston) and the league’s 3rd slowest team (Brooklyn) this past season. The games in Miami have been VERY VERY slow.
I looked at the Spurs’ O/U record this year and have found something worth keeping in mind: they started the year 14-8 O/U. Since then, they have played 58% to the under excluding a few pushes. So in general, they have significantly trended towards the under since their fresh legs went away around mid-December.
Miami’s O/U record this year excluding an 11-7 O/U start is 50.6% to the over – in other words, the number offers no edge in either direction. Not worth considering either way.
Playoff elimination game O/U record in regulation this year: The Spurs are 4-0 to the Under in regulation elimination games this postseason, averaging 6.9 points below the closing total. The Heat are 4-1 to the Under in regulation this postseason elimination games, averaging 8.8 points below the closing total. That’s a cumulative 8-1 record to the under in regulation postseason games this year, averaging 7.9 points below the posted total.
Game 6 went to overtime and had the 2nd slowest pace of the series thus far. Add the shortest turnaround time of the entire series tonight, and this being a 3rd game in 5 nights as well which doesn’t help healing as much as a Thursday to Sunday turnaround. This also equates to legs that get tired sooner, which equates to flat jumpers clanging off the rim.
More in the under’s favor: Based on what BetCrimes has posted at the top of the NBA forum page + some additional math I did to include the rest of this year’s games he hasn’t accounted for – 2nd round or later, Game 6 or 7, since 2003-2004: 14-38-1 O/U (includes regulation record this season). That’s a 73% trend over a 52 game sample size.
Lastly, on paper, we’re off 4 straight overs heading into tonight’s game. Spot I like to go the other way in often, natural mindset is to believe the over will keep hitting.
So in summary, there’s a TON of valuable information that all points towards tonight being a low scoring game. I think we see the lowest scoring game of the series, and that the first to 90 points (Miami) wins comfortably tonight.
I’ve had a great time posting here all year and wish you guys luck tonight. Gonna be a game for the history books.
I did some math based on the basketball-reference.com metrics: games in Miami this series have played out to an average pace of 84.17, while games in SA have played out to an average pace of 91.3. For context, the difference in pace of 7.1 possessions per game is almost identically equivalent to the difference in pace between the league’s fastest team (Houston) and the league’s 3rd slowest team (Brooklyn) this past season. The games in Miami have been VERY VERY slow.
I looked at the Spurs’ O/U record this year and have found something worth keeping in mind: they started the year 14-8 O/U. Since then, they have played 58% to the under excluding a few pushes. So in general, they have significantly trended towards the under since their fresh legs went away around mid-December.
Miami’s O/U record this year excluding an 11-7 O/U start is 50.6% to the over – in other words, the number offers no edge in either direction. Not worth considering either way.
Playoff elimination game O/U record in regulation this year: The Spurs are 4-0 to the Under in regulation elimination games this postseason, averaging 6.9 points below the closing total. The Heat are 4-1 to the Under in regulation this postseason elimination games, averaging 8.8 points below the closing total. That’s a cumulative 8-1 record to the under in regulation postseason games this year, averaging 7.9 points below the posted total.
Game 6 went to overtime and had the 2nd slowest pace of the series thus far. Add the shortest turnaround time of the entire series tonight, and this being a 3rd game in 5 nights as well which doesn’t help healing as much as a Thursday to Sunday turnaround. This also equates to legs that get tired sooner, which equates to flat jumpers clanging off the rim.
More in the under’s favor: Based on what BetCrimes has posted at the top of the NBA forum page + some additional math I did to include the rest of this year’s games he hasn’t accounted for – 2nd round or later, Game 6 or 7, since 2003-2004: 14-38-1 O/U (includes regulation record this season). That’s a 73% trend over a 52 game sample size.
Lastly, on paper, we’re off 4 straight overs heading into tonight’s game. Spot I like to go the other way in often, natural mindset is to believe the over will keep hitting.
So in summary, there’s a TON of valuable information that all points towards tonight being a low scoring game. I think we see the lowest scoring game of the series, and that the first to 90 points (Miami) wins comfortably tonight.
I’ve had a great time posting here all year and wish you guys luck tonight. Gonna be a game for the history books.
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BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
BOL reams:shake:
I do but not with enough conviction to bet it.
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
2nd & 3rd made it interesting, but 3 straight 50+s were never happening.:cheers:
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