NBA Finals Game #1 bet

[BetCrimes1984]

I have a mismash of expectations and perspectives about how the opening 2 games of this series will unfold. Upper most in my mind is the expectation the Spurs will cover at least 1 of their home games, and that at least 1 of those games will go Under/will play out like their regular season meetings did (say, mid 170s or less).

However, since I'm not willing to chase in either result (I want to see the 1st game in without already having a committment to a decent sized game 2 bet, which would be the case w/a chase that lost in Game 1) but dont want to *miss out* if both occur in Game 1, thereby - given my methods - leaving my dry w/no bet for Game 2, my method to "cover" either or both occuring in Game 1 is to have taken...

Cleveland team total under 86.5 points

Since LBJ has been with the Cavs, the winner of their contests with the Spurs has averaged 96.6 points, while the loser has averaged 86.6 points (right on this bets line). However, take away LBJ's first 2 *learning years* leaves us with the winner of these matchups averaging 93.2 points, and the loser averaging 80.5 points.

Also, Cleveland on the road since Rnd 1 has averaged 83.8 points/game.

If the Spurs cover and/or the game goes Under, on the basis of the above I'd expect my bet to win. However, a Spurs SU win w/a non ATS cover in an Under result still leaves me with plenty of room to win IMO (and would mean my expectation of their covering ATS in at least 1 home game leads me to my game 2 bet). Also, a Spurs ATS cover in an Over result also leaves room for my bet to win, esp. if such an Over result just creeps over the line.

BOL all:cheers:

 

[AgainstThePublic]

Like it. Too bad my book doesn't allow team totals. GL.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, ATP. BOL w/your own bet:cheers:

 

[AgainstThePublic]

:cheers:

 

[bluemyboy]

goodluck BC! I like it!

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Good Luck BC

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, blue/Hawks:cheers:

I failed to add (thou its obvious from what I wrote), that this is only for a small bet.

Heaven for me would be Cleveland winning SU in scoring 86 or less, given what'd set up for Game 2.

 

[Ally]

Looking good so far. Good luck buddy.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, Ally.

The taste of that failed elimination game Under bet between the Cavs & Pistons is growing fainter by the minute

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Good job. Might as well just roll these units into the same bet in game 2.

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

Smart bet. Nice hit. I have a feeling Game 2 will be a war with the winner scoring about 90 points. Will probably end up hitting Cavs +7.5 but the total of 177.5 looks too close for comfort IMO. Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, Believe.

Puf - at this point, I'd say I expect at least 1 repeat result for game 2. But I'm not so sold on the idea of a double Spurs cover/Under repeat. It'll be a matter of sorting out in my mind what makes for the more likely change.

Total switch: Its obvious to me that the key for any totals switch would be the number of FTs called. I'd expect the pace to stay the same (there were 145 shots in G1) but there were only 31 FTs dished out. 60+ were seen in each of the ECFs last 3 games, all of which went Over, in contrast to that series 1st 3 games which all went Under (with no more than 40 being dished out in any one of them). Add an extra 30 FTs to tonight's past effort and suddenly Over comes in, if not easily, at least with time to spare. If the FTs arent dished out like candy in game 2, I really see no reason why there should be a total change. Anyone thinking that the Cavs needed 3 periods to get in this series, and that what happened in the 4th is what we'll see predominantly in game 2/here on out, I think are fooling themselves: The Spurs led by 18 and then went on cruise control, its only in such a space that Cleveland's offense looked respectable.

ATS switch: LBJ can't have a much worse offensive game in G2, surely, and his poor play is tied to the Cav's FT numbers. Obviously those numbers will climb the better he performs, and he will perform sooner rather than later (he started the DET series the same way). The question will be how much better will he be in game 2? His improvement in game 2 of the ECFs made no difference to the full game total (10 pts to nearly doubling that 19 pts) but even thou the final scores were identical, DET won game 1's 4th period by 2 to win by 3, but won game 2's 4th period by 6, to win by 3. The Cavs clearly asked more of Detroit down the stretch w/James improvement over the 2 games. Its what I'd expect here from James, so either the Spurs repeat what Detroit did (by improving on their game 1 effort), or the margin will narrow, setting up a non-cover (I should add, and potential SU loss, but I dont see it personally).

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

I'm going to play the bounceback theory with LeBron and play Cleveland +7.5.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nicely played BC...

More FT's in game 2 no doubt