NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2024 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records―all results based off opening lines―starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows (please note: due to the fact that 2020's playoff games all took place at a single venue which thereby eliminated home court advantage and thus the effect such would otherwise normally exert on the totals outcome of any given elimination game, I have excluded those results from the data base that follows below)...


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 215-169-6

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _88-95-3
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 127-74-3


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 120-87-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 61-51-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 69-36-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 95-82-4

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 27-44-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 68-38-2

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

23-24 Elimination game results

Round 1

MIN@PHX - Game 4: Over
DEN@LAL - Game 4: Over
OKC@ NO - Game 4: Under
LAL@DEN - Game 5: Under
IND@MIL - Game 5: Under
PHI@NYK - Game 5: Over (via overtime)
MIA@BOS - Game 5: Over
MIL@IND - Game 6: Over
NYK@PHI - Game 6: Over
CLE@ORL - Game 6: Under
LAC@DAL - Game 6: Over
ORL@CLE - Game 7: Over


Round 2

CLE@BOS - Game 5: Over
DEN@MIN - Game 6: Under
NYK@IND - Game 6: Over
OKC@DAL - Game 6: Over
IND@NYK - Game 7: Over
MIN@DEN - Game 7: Under


Round 3

BOS@IND - Game 4: Under
DAL@MIN - Game 4: Under
MIN@DAL - Game 5: Over


Round 4

BOS@DAL - Game 4: Under
DAL@BOS - Game 5: Under

 

[KJ]

It's definitely mid afternoon in NZ

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Excuse my tardiness for being a tad late and missing a couple of games.

 

[B.A.R.]

Excuse my tardiness for being a tad late and missing a couple of games.

No worries.

Appreciate the information as always.

 

[emg2525]

I feel like this Cavs/Magic game 6 is setting up nicely for the Under

 

[KJ]

Round 1 brings some nuances doesn't it?

 

[skanless13]

Fuck I hate series’ where the home. team wins each game. Haven’t seen a line for game 7 in Cleveland but guessing Cle -5?

 

[KJ]

Fuck I hate series’ where the home. team wins each game. Haven’t seen a line for game 7 in Cleveland but guessing Cle -5?

Seeing 3.5

I don't understand that series at all. Mobley looks like a high school kid. Wagners are flopping, Banchero is getting chants of MVP. It's completely bizarre.

 

[Loves2kickass]

There's no defense in today's NBA.

 

[eggman]

Always my favorite auto bet in the playoffs. Thanks for keeping it going. Round 1 was pretty brutal honestly, some “bad beats” or I should just say “close ones” as they can go. I’m betting overs in game 4 & 5 in round 2+

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Always my favorite auto bet in the playoffs. Thanks for keeping it going. Round 1 was pretty brutal honestly, some “bad beats” or I should just say “close ones” as they can go. I’m betting overs in game 4 & 5 in round 2+

A personal issue I have, is being allergic to betting under in an elim. game when there was an elim. game in the previous game that went Under. Looking at this playoffs so far through that lens:

IND@MIL g5 went Under, then g6 went Over.
PHI@NYK g5 went Under in regulation (so even though it paid Over due to OT, from my pov they still played at Under pace result), g6 went Over (= played Over pace)
CLE@ORL g6 went Under, g7 went Over

This naturally doesn't always hold, it's hardly cast iron that the opposite result will predominate in a repeating elimination game spot, but to me it's simply logic that if a team loses an elim under, the coaching is going to address their lack of offense for their next game, and humans tend to produce what they concentrate on. So IMO, looking to back an elim Under in a series that just delivered an elim Under in regulation (whether OT existed or not), requires the need to tread carefully. Other factors have to exist that play into expecting an Under, this spot alone shouldn't be seen as the sole reason for lumping for such a bet.

 

[M.W.]

I feel like this Cavs/Magic game 6 is setting up nicely for the Under

Yes. It's a big play for me.

 

[M.W.]

A personal issue I have, is being allergic to betting under in an elim. game when there was an elim. game in the previous game that went Under.

Over the last 20 years, game 6 has tended to go under when previous game went over or under by less than 7 points, in another words not an outlier that could prompt changes in game plan for the next game. Pacers/Bucks game 5 went under by 10.5, then game 6 went over (barely). Knicks/Sixers went over by 14 in game 5, then game 6 WAY over. Magic/Cavs over by 4 in game 5, then under in game 6. Mavs/Clippers game 5 over by 7, then game 6 over.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Over the last 20 years, game 6 has tended to go under when previous game went over or under by less than 7 points, in another words not an outlier that could prompt changes in game plan for the next game. Pacers/Bucks game 5 went under by 10.5, then game 6 went over (barely). Knicks/Sixers went over by 14 in game 5, then game 6 WAY over. Magic/Cavs over by 4 in game 5, then under in game 6. Mavs/Clippers game 5 over by 7, then game 6 over.

You didn't designate whether the the previous game (g5) was an elimination game or not.

And more generally speaking, it's simply a subjective take of mine. If I felt other factors pointed strongly to the Under, it wouldn't bother me (example, the Pistons/Pacers ECF battle almost 20 years back, and the following Pistons/Spurs finals). But if two ordinarily strong scoring teams go under in a g5 or g6, then repeat the elim spot the next game, I'm not inclined to go back to the well.

Indy & NYK have now combined for 3 x g6 Overs. There'd need to be other factors pointing towards an Under for their coming g7 to make me bet it, rather than leave the spot alone. This angle clearly isn't enough by itself to overcome these two teams' tendencies.

 

[twinkie13]

You didn't designate whether the the previous game (g5) was an elimination game or not.

And more generally speaking, it's simply a subjective take of mine. If I felt other factors pointed strongly to the Under, it wouldn't bother me (example, the Pistons/Pacers ECF battle almost 20 years back, and the following Pistons/Spurs finals). But if two ordinarily strong scoring teams go under in a g5 or g6, then repeat the elim spot the next game, I'm not inclined to go back to the well.

Indy & NYK have now combined for 3 x g6 Overs. There'd need to be other factors pointing towards an Under for their coming g7 to make me bet it, rather than leave the spot alone. This angle clearly isn't enough by itself to overcome these two teams' tendencies.

Glad to see you still are kickin bro.
So you’re laying off or still deciding?
Hope all is well down there

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Glad to see you still are kickin bro.
So you’re laying off or still deciding?
Hope all is well down there

I haven't bet NBA totals since the rules changed and the scoring (along with the lines) ballooned out. Otherwise things as good as can be expected.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

After 2 rounds, games 6 & 7 have produced an U/O 3-7 record. Games involving NYK &/or IND are responsible for 3 Overs, leaving all games not involving those teams with a 3-4 mark, a rate much closer to previous norms. NYK is gone, Indy's still with us. Some teams this spot just cannot reach.