NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2018 Playoffs

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 158-121-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 65-67-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 93-54-2


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 91-61-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 46-35-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 45-26-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 67-60-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 19-32
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 48-28-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 36.36%),
a time when both teams already have a series win under their belts and have both won at least 2 games in the current series.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

17-18 Elimination game results


Round 1

POR@NOR - Game 4: Over
GS@SAS - Game 4: Under
MIA@PHI - Game 5: Under
SAS@GS - Game 5: Under
MIN@HOU - Game 5: Over
UTH@OKC - Game 5: Under
BOS@MIL - Game 6: Under
TOR@WAS - Game 6: Under
CLE@IND - Game 6: Over
OKC@UTH - Game 6: Under
MIL@BOS - Game 7: Over
IND@CLE - Game 7: Over


Round 2

BOS@PHI - Game 4: Under
TOR@CLE - Game 4: Over
UTH@HOU - Game 5: Over
NOR@GS - Game 5: Under
PHI@BOS - Game 5: Over


Round 3

BOS@CLE - Game 6: Over
HOU@GS - Game 6: Under
CLE@BOS - Game 7: Under
GS@HOU - Game 7: Under


Round 4

GS@CLE - Game 4: Under
 
Last edited:
Always my favorite bets of the playoffs come from this thread and study. Hats off sir!
 
All hail the mighty Suns
I thought the elimination tended to go under in the second round and more in game 7
 
Cleveland and Indiana hit Live though in a blowout (great angle there -- just another way to attack)
 
Seeing a trend....1 over 3 unders....1 Over 3 unders...1 Over and 1 unders so far with 2 more games to go.
 
Great find! First year jumping into this. Something I noticed - in both game 7s compared with the game 6s in the same series, the lines are 4 - 4 1/2 pts, lower (my lines Bos, 196 1/2 vs. 201, Cle, 200 vs. 204). Are we losing a lot of value here, or is it more advantageous for the under in these two game 7 situations, compared to the game 6s?
 
Elimination games being games 4 or 5 of a series, 2nd rd. and onward

03-04 thru 16-17 (O/U) 30-18 62.5%

Current season

Bos @ Phi Game 4 UNDER
Tor @ Cle Game 4 OVER
Ut @ Hou Game 5 OVER
NO @ GS Game 5 UNDER
Phi @ Bos Game 5 OVER

(O/U) 3-2

03-04 season thru present (O/U) 33-20 62.2%
 
Stew - I decided that excising the Phoenix Suns results from the Stoudemire era was a dodge, so 'reincluded' them in the overall stats, thus the change you've noticed.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Stew - I decided that excising the Phoenix Suns results from the Stoudemire era was a dodge, so 'reincluded' them in the overall stats, thus the change you've noticed.
Click to expand...
Got it. At some point before the next scenario for the trend comes up, or before the playoffs end, I'll adjust the %s. You read my mind, actually, on the dodge. Unless you would have some way of predicting ahead of time that the Suns were going to be an aberration, you can't leave them out. Leaving them out is not a true reflection, b/c who knows when another "Phoenix Suns" may come down the pike without being able to predict it. I didn't bring this up b/c it didn't seem like that big of a deal. Only to the true statisticians! Of which I guess I am at heart.
 
REVISED TALLY

Elimination games being games 4 or 5 of a series, 2nd rd. and onward

03-04 thru 16-17 (O/U) 32-19 62.7%

Current season

Bos @ Phi Game 4 UNDER
Tor @ Cle Game 4 OVER
Ut @ Hou Game 5 OVER
NO @ GS Game 5 UNDER
Phi @ Bos Game 5 OVER

(O/U) 3-2

03-04 season thru present (O/U) 35-21 62.5%

Being that both conference final series went past 5 games before there will be an elimination game, this may be it. Unless one team in the finals wins the first 3 or 3 out of the first 4. We'll see.
 
Cleveland a perfect 4-0 to Over in elimination games these playoffs.

Boston is 2-0 to Over in home elimination games these playoffs.

The fact these 2 teams have gone 3-0 to Under in games @Boston in this series has been pretty much because the Cavs have been thrashed/non-competitive every time (no game decided by less than a 13 pt Celts winning margin). As long as Boston continues to get theirs (what says they shouldn't?) and Cleveland keeps it tight for once (they can't afford to mail their effort down the stretch this time round given there are no more tomorrows for them), I'd say a line below 200 offers no distinct adv. to any potential Under play.

----

edit: to add, I'd prefer to take the approach of watching out the 1h, hoping it goes Over then look for a 2h Under play. Things should tighten up as this gets closer to crunch time. A 1h Under imo would screw with that expectation, simply because the Cav's D blows, and will surely blow at some point in this game (if not in the 1h, then surely in the 2h unless the C's, against my expectations, deliver another blowout, and LBJ quits like he has done in the past).
 
Last edited:
Great stuff as always BetCrimes.

Don't you think with the over in Game 6, both teams will adapt? In terms of stressing defense, not allowing easy baskets.
Plus, it's an all or nothing game, so I would expect more nerves and worse FGM.
Any thoughts on Love being out contributing to the under as well?
 
GT- I thought Love being help also contribute to the likelihood of the scoring remaining higher (g 6 after all was the 2nd highest scoring game til that point in the series). Sorry I wasn't around to reply,not that my take ended up mattering.

So much for my theories. Tuned in at h/t and saw we had your prototypical elimination game Under well on the way to being delivered, so any thoughts of a 2h Over angle went out the window. At that point it was obvious that, win or lose, Boston wasn't getting (what was normally) theirs (on their home court), which ultimately undermined my Over thoughts, as well as their eventually winning.

-----

Without CP3 & Iguodala, it's hard to see how the WCF's g7 pours in the points to surpass 208.5 based on the last few games, but I personally have always hated an elimination game to appear on top of a string of Under results having already paid out (here it's 4 straight), because it's conditioned bettors to already not to be scared of points being scored (whereas the absolute best time imo for an elim to appear is the opposite situation). Here we get a line a full 17 pts lower than the two opening games in Houston. Is CP3's absence worth 17pts? IMO an Under here is far more likely to be aligned with an Houston win than loss. The Warriors get going, then the Rocks will have no choice but to keep up and that should = Over. Again, whatever the 1h scoring,this game should get tighter the closer it gets to crunch-time, thus a 2h Under play should be on like it was for Bos/Cle. The one warning sign to that intention to me being that the Warriors have got theirs and Houston trails or leads by no more than 2-3pts come the half ending.
 
Let's do this tonight...CP3 out won't help the number, I really wish he was playing....ISO Harden should make this a snooze fest and if GSW fall back into ISO Durant it could be in the 80s
 
With the string of unders and the total plummeting from that of the first two games, it reminds me a of a series back in 2003 I think, between two typically high scoring teams (I don't remember the teams). The games kept going way under and they kept cheating the number lower and lower. After a string of 3 or 4 unders and the number being set way lower than the 1st game or 2, it seemed like it was time for a reversal. I threw down a big action points wager (anybody know of a place that still offers action points?) on the over, and the scoring floodgates really opened on that one, to the tune of a big payday.

That being said, I did follow the sytem and am on the under, but due to the apparent marked reduction in value, I'm playing it for 70% of what I would play on these otherwise.
 
Thanks for the comment BC. I actually decided to buy down to 191 after some further investigation. So your input was not the deciding factor, but I still value it much!

I usually prefer to do things in-game as well, but thought this needed to be done before.
 
Another trial for the "Inverted NBA Playoff Elimination Game Total System" - playing the over in elimination games being games 4 or 5 of a series, 2nd round and later - coming up Friday, with an additional trial after that if there is a game next Monday. Opener was 215 1/2 or 216, depending on which place you're looking at; if you're playing these I suggest you wait as I believe the number will come down some.
 
Final Tally thru 17-18

"Inverted NBA Playoff Elimination Game Total System"

(Elimination games being games 4 or 5 of a series, 2nd rd. and onward)

03-04 thru 16-17 (O/U) 32-19 62.7%

2017-18

Bos @ Phi Game 4 UNDER
Tor @ Cle Game 4 OVER
Ut @ Hou Game 5 OVER
NO @ GS Game 5 UNDER
Phi @ Bos Game 5 OVER
GS @ Cle Game 4 UNDER

(O/U) 3-3

03-04 season thru 17-18 (O/U) 35-22 61.4%
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

BetCrimes1984
NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2024 Playoffs
Replies
16
Views
871
BetCrimes1984
BetCrimes1984
BetCrimes1984
NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2023 Playoffs
Replies
15
Views
2K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
F
NBA Playoffs
Replies
45
Views
1K
Fred57
F
F
Play Offs
2
Replies
56
Views
1K
Fred57
F
BetCrimes1984
NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2022 Playoffs
Replies
30
Views
3K
BetCrimes1984
BetCrimes1984
Back
Top