NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2016 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 132-91-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 56-51-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 76-40-2


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 75-50-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 40-29-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 35-21-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 57-41-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 16-22
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 41-19-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 31.1%), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.


The one team to prove the exception to the above trends (and whose results I've not included above) was the Amar'e Stoudemire era...

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they won SU: U/O 2-8
Elimination games they lost SU: U/O 4-2

For this incarnation of the Phoenix Suns it didn't matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they were playing in, or what Round they're playing it in, as related to their final total result: it came down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

15-16 Elimination game results


Round 1

SAS@MEM - Game 4: Over
CLE@DET - Game 4: Under (ftr: Over the closing line)
DAL@OKC - Game 5: Over
HOU@GS - Game 5: Under
ATL@BOS - Game 6: Under
TOR@IND - Game 6: Under
CHA@MIA - Game 6: Under
LAC@POR - Game 6: Over
IND@TOR - Game 7: Under
CHA@MIA - Game 7: Under


Round 2

CLE@ATL - Game 4: Under
POR@GS - Game 5: Over
SAS@OKC - Game 6: Over
TOR@MIA - Game 6: Over
MIA@TOR - Game 7: Over
.


Round 3

OKC@GS - Game 5: Over
CLE@TOR - Game 6: Over
GS@OKC - Game 6: Under
OKC@GS - Game 7: Under
.


Round 4

CLE@GS - Game 5: Over
GS@CLE - Game 6: Over
CLE@GS - Game 7: Under
.

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[nbafan88]

:daman:

 

[pressitup]

yes

 

[eggman]

Always enjoy playing these. Thanks again.

 

[eggman]

Nail biter on the second elimination game depending on your line. Wow.

 

[pip2]

Trying a spray-and-pray today, 1 unit on the Under for each of today's 3 games...

 

[pip2]

Today I'm not so hot on continuing the spray-and-pray. The following query doesn't jive well with the general elimination game stats: http://killersports.com/nba/query?s...nd=+1+and+season+>=+2012&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[pip2]

Great job of talking myself out of going 4-1...

 

[eggman]

I had Cle/Atl game 4 at 205, for and Under. No?

 

[nbafan88]

Yeah the Cleveland Atlanta game went under. Closed at 202.5. Pissed I forgot about it.

 

[jcygts6]

SO we are only supposed to play the unders for Game 6 and 7 rd2 and onward?

 

[eggman]

SO we are only supposed to play the unders for Game 6 and 7 rd2 and onward?

I think the info is more just that. Info. You do with it what you want. I bet full units on the regularly categorized games and if I like how the squads match up that are involved I will bet a half unit on the games 4 or 5 in round 2 and beyond. 8-3 so far overall on all elimination games so far. It's an easy blind bet for me. Gonna have to send BetCrimes a commission check pretty soon.

 

[pip2]

I don't know what kind of total the books could come up with that would make a Trailblazers/Warriors under bet seem reasonable...

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Oops. Sorry bout that (got in late, and I remember seeing it was a 1st h Over/2nd h Under combo, so I'd guess that I entered the 1st h result rather than the FG result).

 

[BetCrimes1984]

SO we are only supposed to play the unders for Game 6 and 7 rd2 and onward?

My attitude is to look for more reasons that point to the Under than just this Elim-Game trend. The more reasons I uncover = naturally the greater the advantage to base an Under bet on. And if I can't find myself playing the Under (presumably because the other factors in play in the match-up otherwise counter what this trend calls for) = I'll pass.

An almost 70% hit rate for Unders in these games means there's what advantage for taking an Over usually? If you win then the percentages say you simply got lucky; if you lose then the numbers ask of you, wtf were you thinking? Of course that's an overview, and there's always an individual match-up or individual game that is exception to the norm (like the Suns were), cue why no trend should denote the luxury of otherwise passing on capping the individual game/match-up.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I don't know what kind of total the books could come up with that would make a Trailblazers/Warriors under bet seem reasonable...

I agree. They're in their own ways shadows of that former Suns team. The kind of deliberate basketball that makes for Elim Unders they might combine to turn on (late) in a 4th period, but not over a whole game (like Toronto & Miami are vomiting up rather nicely game in & game out).

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I think the info is more just that. Info. You do with it what you want. I bet full units on the regularly categorized games and if I like how the squads match up that are involved I will bet a half unit on the games 4 or 5 in round 2 and beyond. 8-3 so far overall on all elimination games so far. It's an easy blind bet for me. Gonna have to send BetCrimes a commission check pretty soon.

You take the risk, you reap the reward. I take no kudos [or blame ]:shake2:

 

[nbafan88]

Can't follow this for game 5 in GS..... The first one I'll stay away this post season. If I did it would be Blazers TT under

 

[eggman]

Can't follow this for game 5 in GS..... The first one I'll stay away this post season. If I did it would be Blazers TT under

It falls into that bad range of games 4 or 5 in rounds 2 and beyond and not to mention these teams have played I think 7x and scored below 210 only 1x.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Round 2

CLE@ATL - Game 4: Under
POR@GS - Game 5: Over
SAS@OKC - Game 6: Over
TOR@MIA - Game 6: Over
MIA@TOR - Game 7: Over

Round 3

OKC@GS - Game 5: Over
CLE@TOR - Game 6: Over
GS@OKC - Game 6: Under
OKC@GS - Game 7: Under

Round 4

CLE@GS - Game 5: Over
GS@CLE - Game 6: Over
CLE@GS - Game 7:

On the surface the prime Under situation - 2R+ G6 & G7 - hasn't been kind this year. However what transpired in the 1st round goes a long way to explaining for me why this is. I didn't post the thought in this thread at the time but I did in eggman's thread, which was that the welter of Unders that dominated the early going of the playoffs (almost the entirety of R1, where the G6 & G7 Unders there went a healthy 5-1 to Under) was bound to incur a statistical regression somewhere down the track, and thus for me that's chiefly the explanation for the unusual number of elim. game Over results (currently sitting at 5-2 to Over).

As a specific example of this regression playing out in practical terms, the Toronto/Miami series saw its first 4 games go under the line in regulation, so as that series headed into game 5 it was pregnant for some sort of regression. Game 5 crept over by a point after Miami ended that game playing small ball which up the scoring pace, killing what otherwise looked to be the 5th straight under-in-regulation result. Then Miami instigated "small ball" from the get-go for game 6, thus setting up the manifestation of the 2 relatively easy Over results that series ended with. So there was no happenstance or accident to explain the Overs that appeared in those usual Under spots: the total lines late in that series reflected the previous low scoring output at the precise moment one of the teams changed-up the scoring dynamic.


Still, while the stats for G6/7 Unders since the 2nd Round started sit at an ugly 5-2 to Over, the overall stats this post season for game 7's specifically read a much more normal 3-1 to Under. Over the last two seasons the Warriors have twice played an elimination game @home against an opponent with a winning reg. season road record: those games have totaled 194 & 188 pts. I'll be hunting Under via live betting.

 

[eggman]

Great info BC. Appreciate it as always. Battling with this game myself.