NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2014 Playoffs

[BetCrimes1984]

Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 107-68-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 45-40-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 62-28-2


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 60-37-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 33-23-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 27-14-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 47-31-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 12-17
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 35-14-1

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 28.0%), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.


The one team to prove the exception to the above trends over the time span to which these stats apply (and whose results I've not included above) was the Amar'e Stoudemire era...

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they won SU: U/O 2-8
Elimination games they lost SU: U/O 4-2

For this incarnation of the Phoenix Suns it didn't matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they were playing in, or what Round they're playing it in, as related to their final total result: it came down to their SU performance.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

13-14 Elimination game results


Round 1

MIA@CHA - Game 4: Over
WAS@CHC - Game 5: Under
POR@HOU - Game 5: Under
IND@ATL - Game 6: Under
OKC@MEM - Game 6: Over
LAC@GS - Game 6: Under
TOR@BRK - Game 6: Under
SAS@DAL - Game 6: Over
HOU@POR - Game 6: Under
ATL@IND - Game 7: Under
MEM@OKC - Game 7: Over
GS@LAC - Game 7: Over
BRK@TOR - Game 7: Over
DAL@SAS - Game 7: Over
.


Round 2

SAS@POR - Game 4: Under
WAS@IND - Game 5: Over (ftr: Under the closing line)
BRK@MIA - Game 5: Over
POR@SAS - Game 5: Under
IND@WAS - Game 6: Under
OKC@LAC - Game 6: Under
.


Round 3

MIA@IND - Game 5: Under
IND@MIA - Game 6: Over
SAS@OKC - Game 6: Over (ftr: Under in regulation)
.


Round 4

MIA@SAS - Game 5: Under
.

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[edou1x]

Could you check O/U results for ALL games, of 3rd round and more (Conference finals and NBA finals) over last 5 seasons. read somewhere that blindly betting the under was a winning bet.
rationale behind this is the more a team goes deeper to the playoff the more their only way to have a shot at winning is by playing strong defense leading to unders in Totals.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

When I get time I'll have a look, but dealing with the assertion at face value, I don't see it meaning much for the coming playoffs.
I think the happenstance you're interested in is grounded in the nature of the match-ups that have accrued, and that you're not guaranteed to get like minded match-ups occur these coming playoffs, meaning therefore referencing that recent domination of 3rd round+ Unders (if true) and projecting it onto what's to come (as a betting guide) would be an erroneous step to take. Whereas the expectation to look at Unders first in elimination games (no matter the match-up is involved) in grounded in pure logic - however, I said Unders first and not only Unders because, as the Phoenix Suns team's results which I have excised show, not even the Elim under angle is "pure".
In short, even if I find what you say is true, it's basically meaningless to me. (If you were talking about some specific teams with the same core players managing to consistently manifest such results over that period of time, that would be different. But as a blanket overview somehow being worth used as a guide to bet Unders, don't see it.)

 

[pressitup]

A CTG cornerstone thread.

thanks , BC

 

[eggman]

Always love seeing this thread hit the board, thanks for the work behind it. Will be following.

 

[CASH]

BC any stats per qtr in the elimination games?
Two fold thought - teams tighten up in the 4th however you have the fouling to extend the game. Thanks !

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Sorry, TCM. Only FG stats.

 

[CASH]

Thanks for checking!

 

[consilience]

The elimination game under trend may be becoming a thing of the past.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The elimination game under trend may be becoming a thing of the past.

Now the 1st Round has ended, I think with hindsight there's a couple of angles we can look at to see why the results (O/U 7-7 overall, 6-5 Over for games 6/7) panned out as they did.


(1) The results for the East for games 6/7 read 3-1 Under (& that 1 Over was a game 7 result between 2 teams that delivered on a game 6 Under: I'm never so confident about expecting a second straight elim Under between the same teams so even there it can't be considered an "abnormal" result), so there's nothing unusual here.

It's in the West is where we find the "wayward" results, 5-2 to Over. Breaking them down -

LAC vs. GS (1 Under & 1 Over): LAC looks to be a lesser version of the Amar'e era Suns. Their defense is shitty, they live on offense. GS had a heavily biased Under record over the final stanza of the reg. season (25-13 Under, 65.7% rate), yet they hit Over with LAC at a 70%+ rate. All that said, these 2 teams produced their Over in game 7 off a game 6 Under result: the scenario, as stated with the East's sole Over result, where I'm not enamoured with betting an elim Under. I'm much more inclined to bet an elim Under off an elim Under between the same teams if/when there's at least 1 decent defensive side involved (say, Chic or Indy). Here that wasn't the case.

OKC vs. MEM (2 Overs): Their Game 6 went Over by 3 pts, so that's hardly an outcome the elim Under pov can argue with. Obv. not every result close to the total line is going to go Under's way. Due to a suspension, Mempiss totally changed their game plan for game 7 = easily the highest scoring game of the series by a mile. Since Mempiss had a bias for Unders on the road in the reg. season, I can well imagine a much different result here if Z-Bo hadn't been missing for them.

POR vs. HOU (1 Under): If these 2 teams hadn't completely switched up their offesive approach (moving to half-court sets) for their 2nd half, this would be surely have been another Over result (114 pt 1st h, 83 pt 2nd h). That they did make such a switch, spoke direcxtly to the situation (arrival of crunchtime in a crucial elim game). So certainly here the Under is totally down to the nature of the situation, completely as expected.

SAS vs. DAL (2 Overs): Dallas is another team with awful D that lives-&-dies on offense. Spurs teams are no longer the defense-first power-houses they were under Pop in the early to mid-2000s: their defense is hardly bad (#6, but thats 5.8 ppg more than #1), but as far as I can ascertain (relative to their defensive stats I posted on their all-or-nothing trend over the latter half of the season that bled into this series) they pick and choose when to deliver their best efforts on D. In this series, that was the crucial game 1 (get off to a winning start) and in game 4 (when they were down 1-2 and facing being on the brink if they lost). Outside of those 2 situations, they played to their opponent's MO: offense before defense = series had 5 Overs to 2 Unders.


(2) The way they refs have called things/been calling things, right throughout the playoffs, to have significantly helped generate so many Overs overall to this point. To this end I expressed my view before games 6/7 got underway as this related to (upcoming) elim games -

I don't like the way the refs have called these 1st Round games. Never seen so many Overs sealed by mammoth scoring 4th periods which - outside of OT occurring - have doomed many an otherwise odds-on Under result. I've live total betting anyway, but normally Id go for the pre-game line where I suspected an easy slash solid Under, but not here. Just going to tread lightly, see if this shitty calling extends & affects the games where mammoth bursts of late scoring have not been the recent historical norm. The 2nd round onwards elim Unders are where its really at, sitting back now & seeing what transpires should clue us into whether those results can be expected to continue under present conditions.

I think the match-up situations I outlined in (1) are the real key, but the refs have certainly played their part in helping those Over results come about.

 

[Gaius.T]

Unfortunately I haven't seen any 2nd round games so far. Has the officiating improved concerning the stability of scoring / lack of huge scoring at the end of games?

Any suggestions for tonight's elimination games?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I view these 2 totals being aligned to the winner: LAC/WAS Over - OKC/IND Under.

The first break from those sequences I'd see would be Wash. Wash's elim game with Chicago was easily their lowest scoring game of that series, and game 5 of this curent series was also lowish scoring (went under the closing line, after all). As always, Indy goes where their D goes. My concern for this one is it's another freebie for Indy (they don't have to win), and that aligned with their inconsistency prevents me from leaping at this one before the game gets underway (deal with live betting). They get to Game 7 off an Over result, then I'll be for a pre-game bet. I could see a game 7 being 160s, maybe even - mirroring the Chic game - 150s or less. Under comes in here, I think we'll be seeing high 160s min, probably somewhere 170s. Indy's backs against the wall is what really we need/want.

Clipps were 5-0 Over @home in the playoffs before game 4 vs. OKC (I realise they won that game, but that was really an OKC winning effort which just didn't show come the final scoreline). I'm not sold that the elim angle alone justifies taking an Under with them when they're not on the road. The only scenario I realisitically see them winning and delivering an Under in, is if they hammer & OKC lets things slide in the 4th. I don't envisage a repeat of game 4 if LAC wins a close one: competitive game = points scored (like LAC/GS G7).

The refs (remembering rightly, I mentioned it in the in-game) had OKC at 21 FTA with 16 mins gone in G5, when LAC was at their most commanding. I think that should answer your officiating question.