nba discussion

[brewer]

so the last two games in the det chicago series have combined for 189 and 200 pts. the line opened at 185 and i thought the line would go on the upward swing, however, it hasnt. teh exact oppo move has occured as the total now sits at 184.

um ... y?

i see that 64% is on the over in this game at sportsbook.com. im beginning to think there some smart $ on the under.

so whatcha thinking?

 

[B.A.R.]

Yes..Under...

thoughts in a bit

 

[Troutman]

That line suggests a pay on the under, thats why they realeased it so low.

 

[JPicks]

It's my biggest play so far this postseason.

 

[brewer]

imma take under 1h and under fg

 

[bluemyboy]

lots of reasons that could happen, ultimately would say that alot of the late round totals will drop from their open and the early round totals rise. Suns totals will generally always rise at some point above the open. Det and SA totals will usually fall at atleast one point below the open. not sure exactly how accurate these are, but it is a rule of thumb I go by and have talked about with others, I also feel that I get pretty much the best number just by watching key books (CRIS, Pin shades) and following those rules.

 

[bluemyboy]

and as far as percentages if it is in the 50s either way (less then 60% on over), it will usually be pulled down below the opening before tip. However with a higher total and higher percentage on the over you can generally expect it to just go up.

 

[Joe Public]

So am I the only sucker who's about to ML the Pistons?

 

[brewer]

So am I the only sucker who's about to ML the Pistons?

 

[rod_steel]

So am I the only sucker who's about to ML the Pistons?

We jump together JP, feet first :cheers:

 

[bluemyboy]

So am I the only sucker who's about to ML the Pistons?

Pistons +money after proving they can win on the road... hard not to like. that being said I will be on the Bulls. Pistons are the public team it appears tonight, so as far as line movement I am expecting this one to go back down around 1. I wouldnt wait too much longer on it if you want Detroit, but just my oppinion.

 

[brewer]

just talked to luc and he likes the under too for tonight.

 

[Joe Public]

I like it, Rod. I was beginning to think I was all alone.

Yeah, I bit on the 'Stones, +110 at Olympic, +120 at MB.

Go Deeeeeetroit.

 

[bluemyboy]

chicago line looks like it is going to start dropping... looking to get chi at about a 1 pt fav or better by game time.

 

[bluemyboy]

5 dimes moved their total down on the Jersey game..... watching that one... think it will only go down from where it is, but would love for it to go up half a point before heading down.... we'll see.

 

[Satyr]

Just to say I like the under as well, and small CHI ML. Love these historic comebacks .

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

Brewer saw you wrote about you NBA playoff system in Trout's thread .. wanted to ask, does that mean the Nets would fit in that too, tomorrow?? I'm assuming you'd lay off because of the King, but just wondering.

 

[smh212]

I see this game being played in the 80's mainly because I expect Det to control the tempo.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The Pistons average 92.6 points in this series.

In games that have gone Over, CHC averages 99.0 points, to DET's 92.6

In games that have gone Under, CHC averages 71.5 pts, to DET's 92.6

Detroits gets their 80-90 pts, and either they win & it goes Under, or CHC wins and it goes Over.

Though Game 2 proved the exception, that itself showed when this pattern isnt followed, the lean goes to Overs, not Unders.

Thou this is an elimination game 6, and is taking place in the 2nd round, I wouldnt play this Under. IMO, if it goes Under Detroit wins, so you'd be better of playing the Piston ml if you like Under - it pays more and you can still collect even if the game goes Over. I personally do not see Chicago winning a game in which they fail to again rack up the points. The way they're taking Detroit at the moment is overwhelming that team's defense.

All that said, if CHC forces a game 7, then I'd take Under no matter what. Both teams will be tight, and Detroit (I dont believe) will be run over at home in such a sudden death game. So I'm sitting this one out, and hoping Chicago wins.

 

[bluemyboy]

time for some line movement plz.

 

[bluemyboy]

lines a movin..... totals going down and I think the side will go down as well, pin is hinting at it and if they move down others will move dwon accordingly.

 

[bluemyboy]

Chicago line reached 1 at bodog..... SIA will probably have 1.5 all the way until gametime unless it goes down to 1.

 

[Joe Public]

If you want the under, get it at Matchbook. 184.5 for as little as -111.

 

[Joe Public]

Man, it's tough not to like Sam Mitchell. Good tie tonight, Sam.

 

[bluemyboy]

Mods.... change this title to ingame as well... plz.

come on BULLS!!! absolutely love the under tonight as well.

 

[brewer]

best season since the jordan years. 49 wins. 6 postseason wins.

now to right the ship.

what i do if i were paxson ...

chris duhon byebye

pj brown, lil ben, kirk heinrich shoppable

need ... true pg, taller version of lil ben, guy we can dump the ball into and score. very few guys in the nba like this tho. so it'll be hard to find.