NBA Discussion Thread for Sunday 12/10

[Killa]

I vomited when I saw the card. Seriously not much out there. Does Phoenix pull out yet another Cover/Over?

 

[euchre_robot]

how bout the tor game under???

 

[Killa]

I actually like that one. Wish it was a tad higher though.

 

[xgod]

well with randolph out I see a lot of value betting on toronto at home in an afternoon game. Especially after their 3pt loss against the bulls the other day.

 

[JPicks]

Killa. no time to talk as I'm over at the lady's house, but I gotta say that the the Raptors should roll tomorrow. Unfortuantely I think everone will be on it, but sometimes it really doesn't matter. I'd rather not bet against Portland with the whole losing star player trend. We'll see.

Like to see a Lakers/Spurs #. You know Kobe's playing so I don't know what the hold up is.

 

[JPicks]

Spurs are 7-1 SU vs Lakers last 8 as well as being 4-0 SU and ATS at the Staples Center

 

[JPicks]

Like the Hawks catching 7 unless Mike Bibby is ruled out with an injury. Hawks can't beat a team without their star player. Seattle/Allen, Lakers/Kobe.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Seattle-GDS total looks like one soft number.

despite not covering vs LAK, ATL gave them one hard effort on top of their road win in Denver. I wonder how much these guys have in the tank facing a SAC side smarting from an OT loss.

And if Knight doesnt play for CHA, PHX might just manage their first road Under this season.

 

[xgod]

hey BC what do you think of phx and toronto ATS. i think that without randolph the blazers are gona get run out of the gym. Toronto is good in they early games.

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">xgod- The line on the Raptors has gone from -6.5 to -9 pretty quick. The money seems to agree. I wonder if this is too high now, or will it settle around -10.5 or 11?</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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[xgod]

if it lands on double digit chalk I might not touch this game. At 8 id still take it. Im pretty confident that the raptors take the 1st half in a big way, but they always slack in the 2nd half. With that many points it would scare me enough to not touch the play. Another play I like is phoenix. No Brevin Knight. Phoenix is on a role.

 

[xgod]

i seriously think though that the blazers get blown the fuck out tomorrow. But that huge ass line move does scare me. If toronto is a square ass play then that would be a thinker.

 

[xgod]

well terp come to think about it what would scare me more than that sudden increase is points the blazers are getting would be if the line dropped. That would be fishy as hell.

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">I'm going to keep an eye on the Raptors line. The first half sounds like easy green! </TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Terpman92]

That's happened on more than one night.

 

[xgod]

yeah but my book only carries straight up ATS. no half, quarter or total lines. Im still liking toronto a lot actually. Im thinking of rolling with sacramento too and im iffy about phoenix.

 

[Inspekdah]

Yeah very iffy about PHO... like the Cats as the play. Seems real easy to take PHO after CHA just got blown out and PHO is 2-0 ATS on the east coast trip. Should be starting to get to them now. Think the Cats play hard without Knight and stay in this one. The line has been rock solid on 7. Just seems like a lot for me to lay to a home team comming off an embarassing loss.

 

[xgod]

yeah and some smart money going to the cats too. I might acually roll with the cats in this one.

 

[Inspekdah]

x, where do you confirm/analyze smart money? I'm just wondering because all I basically do is watch line and compare them to covers consensus'. Not exactly a science there and would appreciate some more insight.

 

[xgod]

Inspekdah: i check it at SI. reverse line movement.

 

[xgod]

sometimes its smart money, sometimes its just a public play on the ML on one side and the public play on the ATS on the other.

 

[Marcus000]

Looks like Charlotte is only 1-7 ATS against the West so far this season. Their one cover of course the upset win at the Spurs last month.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

If you're taking the Cats, IMO you have to know that Knight plays.

I rarely play for or against POR, and only occasionally their totals. so I've no real opinion what to expect from them. Too random a team for my tastes.

 

[reNew Orleans]

:down:

spurs -3.5 @ lakers is the only thing I think grabs my attention

 

[Marcus000]

Brevin Knight (calf) is expected to be out until at least Wednesday next week.
Knight said the team's medical staff has shut him down for a week, in hopes of ending the soreness in his left knee and calf. The injury occurred in the victory three weeks ago in San Antonio, and Knight has been trying to play through the pain. Raymond Felton will contine being the primary ball handler.
Source: Charlotte Observer


Got this from Rotoworld

 

[reNew Orleans]

just adding to my reasoning for spurs -3.5:

3-1 ATS off 1 day of rest and playing on the road.
8-3 ATS off of 1 day of rest
8-2 ATS away