NBA 2024 Championship Odds Update: The Clippers Are Rounding Into Form
Updated NBA Champion Odds (as of April 8 per BetOnline)
Boston Celtics +180
Denver Nuggets +375
Milwaukee Bucks +750
L.A. Clippers +800
Oklahoma City +1400
Dallas Mavericks +2000
Minnesota Timberwolves +2000
Phoenix Suns +2200
...
Teams That Have Declined
Phoenix Suns
At BetOnline on February 19, the Suns were listed at +1200 to win the championship. Now, on April 8, they are listed at +2200.
Why did this change, suggestive of a team decline, take place, and what sense should we make of it?
On February 19, the Suns were 33-22. They are now 46-32.
The decline in odds is a consequence of several losses that they've experienced, including some bad ones.
For example, they lost at home to Houston and at San Antonio.
To me, the change in odds still feels steep and somewhat unmerited because they've also shown significant team potential.
They've won at Denver twice and defeated both Cleveland and Minnesota.
Los Angeles Clippers
On February 19, the Clippers were listed at BetOnline at +500 to win the title.
Currently, they are listed at +800.
While this change isn't as significant as Phoenix's, it is still noteworthy especially in comparison with more favored teams.
On February 19, the Clippers were an impressive 36-17. Currently, they are 50-28.
From February 25 to March 25, they experienced a slump during which their record was 7-8.
While they faced a lot of good teams during that stretch of time, they normally failed to beat those teams, which suggested at that time their inability to compete for the championship.
They also lost at home to Atlanta by 17.
However, they seem to be figuring things out again.
They've won six of their last seven, defeating Denver and Cleveland in the process.
Kawhi Leonard has been injured with right knee inflammation, but it seems like his return is a mere day-to-day matter.
Winning without him is impressive, as he obviously adds a boost to their team when he is healthy.
Minnesota Timberwolves
On February 19, BetOnline had Minnesota at +1600 to win the championship.
The Timberwolves are now listed at +2000.
On February 19, they were 39-16. Now, they are 54-24.
The change in odds is a bit baffling from a record standpoint.
Karl-Anthony Towns' injury, which is a big deal, likely makes sense of the change.
He is trying to recover from surgery on his left meniscus.
While it makes sense to worry about the health of this key starter, he reportedly has a decent chance of returning before the regular season ends. Minnesota will depend heavily on his offense in the postseason.
Takeaway From These Teams
These changes in odds suggest an important betting lesson: don't place futures on teams that are hot; instead, wait for them to experience slumps.
Good teams go through slumps, but then they'll work their way out of those slumps.
Their odds will change relative to the time when they were hot, such that there is more value on them.
The Suns, Clippers, and Timberwolves are still good teams, and they are now more interesting options to invest in.
Of these teams, the Clippers are most worth considering. Phoenix is held back by ongoing turnover issues and Minnesota by lack of offensive productivity.
L.A. has the talent on offense with its trio of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi when healthy.
The Clippers, crucially, are also improving defensively. Their defensive rating is tenth-best in April.
The Favored Teams
Boston Celtics
Boston is deservedly favored, at +180, to win it all. The Celtics are the top team in the Eastern Conference by 15 games.
They have an eight-game lead over Minnesota and Denver for the best record in the NBA.
While Jayson Tatum has his naysayers, his career playoff production is historic – he has the third-most playoff points before the age of 25, behind only Kobe and LeBron – and his clutch moments speak for themselves.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are behind Boston at +375 to win the championship.
They just won last year and remain a legitimate candidate with Jamal Murray and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Milwaukee Bucks
We see a drop-off from Denver at +375 to Milwaukee at +750.
The Bucks are hanging onto the second seed in the East right now.
While their offense is top-caliber, led by Giannis and Damian Lillard, their defense has suffered a major drop-off.
Their defensive rating is a paltry 19th. They miss elite on-ball defender Jrue Holiday, who is now a Celtic.
Denver Over Boston
Tatum has clutch moments, but his extended clutch-time performance level is disappointing. His field goal percentage in clutch-time is 36.1.
Jokic is much more reliable in a close game down the stretch.
Jokic is also an underrated defender partly because he is determined to avoid fouls in order to stay on the court longer.
He has very active hands, with which he amasses steals and deflections, and has the size and strength to contain opposing bigs.
Denver's defense rates better than it did last regular season, and it will improve again in the postseason when games really count.
Historically, it is not so uncommon for teams to repeat. Led by the Jokic-Murray duo, Denver has the top-tier star talent and the chemistry to win another title.
The most favored team Boston at the current odds just isn't worth backing, especially when Denver is more interesting.
Betting Strategy
For futures betting, value is the name of the game.
The Western Conference is so competitive that the Suns, with their trio of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant, and with their strong defense, are in sixth place.
When you consider the gauntlet that a team in the West has to endure to reach the NBA Finals, I don't think +375 is an attractive price, speaking of Denver.
But I do think +800 is a good price for a champion.
The key is that the Clippers are figuring things out defensively.
They just beat Cleveland by holding them to 36 second-half points. They also beat Denver 102-100.
L.A. certainly has the offensive talent with its star trio. Kawhi coming back is crucial. Its depth, ball security, and experience position it above other competitors.
Best Bet: Clippers to win NBA championship at +800 with BetOnline
Updated NBA Champion Odds (as of April 8 per BetOnline)
Boston Celtics +180
Denver Nuggets +375
Milwaukee Bucks +750
L.A. Clippers +800
Oklahoma City +1400
Dallas Mavericks +2000
Minnesota Timberwolves +2000
Phoenix Suns +2200
...
Teams That Have Declined
Phoenix Suns
At BetOnline on February 19, the Suns were listed at +1200 to win the championship. Now, on April 8, they are listed at +2200.
Why did this change, suggestive of a team decline, take place, and what sense should we make of it?
On February 19, the Suns were 33-22. They are now 46-32.
The decline in odds is a consequence of several losses that they've experienced, including some bad ones.
For example, they lost at home to Houston and at San Antonio.
To me, the change in odds still feels steep and somewhat unmerited because they've also shown significant team potential.
They've won at Denver twice and defeated both Cleveland and Minnesota.
Los Angeles Clippers
On February 19, the Clippers were listed at BetOnline at +500 to win the title.
Currently, they are listed at +800.
While this change isn't as significant as Phoenix's, it is still noteworthy especially in comparison with more favored teams.
On February 19, the Clippers were an impressive 36-17. Currently, they are 50-28.
From February 25 to March 25, they experienced a slump during which their record was 7-8.
While they faced a lot of good teams during that stretch of time, they normally failed to beat those teams, which suggested at that time their inability to compete for the championship.
They also lost at home to Atlanta by 17.
However, they seem to be figuring things out again.
They've won six of their last seven, defeating Denver and Cleveland in the process.
Kawhi Leonard has been injured with right knee inflammation, but it seems like his return is a mere day-to-day matter.
Winning without him is impressive, as he obviously adds a boost to their team when he is healthy.
Minnesota Timberwolves
On February 19, BetOnline had Minnesota at +1600 to win the championship.
The Timberwolves are now listed at +2000.
On February 19, they were 39-16. Now, they are 54-24.
The change in odds is a bit baffling from a record standpoint.
Karl-Anthony Towns' injury, which is a big deal, likely makes sense of the change.
He is trying to recover from surgery on his left meniscus.
While it makes sense to worry about the health of this key starter, he reportedly has a decent chance of returning before the regular season ends. Minnesota will depend heavily on his offense in the postseason.
Takeaway From These Teams
These changes in odds suggest an important betting lesson: don't place futures on teams that are hot; instead, wait for them to experience slumps.
Good teams go through slumps, but then they'll work their way out of those slumps.
Their odds will change relative to the time when they were hot, such that there is more value on them.
The Suns, Clippers, and Timberwolves are still good teams, and they are now more interesting options to invest in.
Of these teams, the Clippers are most worth considering. Phoenix is held back by ongoing turnover issues and Minnesota by lack of offensive productivity.
L.A. has the talent on offense with its trio of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi when healthy.
The Clippers, crucially, are also improving defensively. Their defensive rating is tenth-best in April.
The Favored Teams
Boston Celtics
Boston is deservedly favored, at +180, to win it all. The Celtics are the top team in the Eastern Conference by 15 games.
They have an eight-game lead over Minnesota and Denver for the best record in the NBA.
While Jayson Tatum has his naysayers, his career playoff production is historic – he has the third-most playoff points before the age of 25, behind only Kobe and LeBron – and his clutch moments speak for themselves.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are behind Boston at +375 to win the championship.
They just won last year and remain a legitimate candidate with Jamal Murray and two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Milwaukee Bucks
We see a drop-off from Denver at +375 to Milwaukee at +750.
The Bucks are hanging onto the second seed in the East right now.
While their offense is top-caliber, led by Giannis and Damian Lillard, their defense has suffered a major drop-off.
Their defensive rating is a paltry 19th. They miss elite on-ball defender Jrue Holiday, who is now a Celtic.
Denver Over Boston
Tatum has clutch moments, but his extended clutch-time performance level is disappointing. His field goal percentage in clutch-time is 36.1.
Jokic is much more reliable in a close game down the stretch.
Jokic is also an underrated defender partly because he is determined to avoid fouls in order to stay on the court longer.
He has very active hands, with which he amasses steals and deflections, and has the size and strength to contain opposing bigs.
Denver's defense rates better than it did last regular season, and it will improve again in the postseason when games really count.
Historically, it is not so uncommon for teams to repeat. Led by the Jokic-Murray duo, Denver has the top-tier star talent and the chemistry to win another title.
The most favored team Boston at the current odds just isn't worth backing, especially when Denver is more interesting.
Betting Strategy
For futures betting, value is the name of the game.
The Western Conference is so competitive that the Suns, with their trio of Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant, and with their strong defense, are in sixth place.
When you consider the gauntlet that a team in the West has to endure to reach the NBA Finals, I don't think +375 is an attractive price, speaking of Denver.
But I do think +800 is a good price for a champion.
The key is that the Clippers are figuring things out defensively.
They just beat Cleveland by holding them to 36 second-half points. They also beat Denver 102-100.
L.A. certainly has the offensive talent with its star trio. Kawhi coming back is crucial. Its depth, ball security, and experience position it above other competitors.
Best Bet: Clippers to win NBA championship at +800 with BetOnline
