NBA Betting Trends

[JBsNuggets]

So I've been working on pulling data and have accumulated 5 years of stuff. In digging through it I've noticed a lot of trends that would have been very profitable over the past few years, a buddy of mine and I are currently arguing over whether or not the trends are useful or if Vegas adjusts to them. Would like some of yall's opinions on this, I know I hear trend data used on here pretty frequently.

As an example of what I'm talking about:

-OKC after a loss
-GSW after a loss
-Clippers on 1-2 days rest
-Spurs on a B2B

Even some obscure ones I've found:

-Road Favorite on a road trip 2 days or longer after a loss
-Fade a road dog on a B2B after a win
-Fade a Home dog on B2B after a loss

Has anyone found something like this and tried to apply it for a full season? Thanks for your opinions.

 

[CASH]

betcrimes will have a sticky or two with some of the longer road trips from conference to conference and their records..

 

[pip2]

So I've been working on pulling data and have accumulated 5 years of stuff. In digging through it I've noticed a lot of trends that would have been very profitable over the past few years, a buddy of mine and I are currently arguing over whether or not the trends are useful or if Vegas adjusts to them. Would like some of yall's opinions on this, I know I hear trend data used on here pretty frequently.

As an example of what I'm talking about:

-OKC after a loss
-GSW after a loss
-Clippers on 1-2 days rest
-Spurs on a B2B

Even some obscure ones I've found:

-Road Favorite on a road trip 2 days or longer after a loss
-Fade a road dog on a B2B after a win
-Fade a Home dog on B2B after a loss

Has anyone found something like this and tried to apply it for a full season? Thanks for your opinions.

I like the Clippers data:
On 1 or 2 days rest in 2013-14
SU: 54-20 (8.41, 73.0%)
ATS: 43-30-1 (2.55, 58.9%) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 37-36-1 (0.40, 50.7%) avg total: 208.1


The Warriors data was even better, but I wonder if that can be counted on with a new coach this year?

the Spurs are just getting older every year, so who knows if that trend would be more likely to continue:
B2B games for Spurs in 2013-14:
SU: 14-5 (7.37, 73.7%)
ATS: 12-6-1 (2.89, 66.7%) avg line: -4.5
O/U: 7-12-0 (-0.84, 36.8%) avg total: 201.6

The home dog fade after a loss looks nice too because the sample size for one year is more along the size of the Clippers data:
2013-14
SU: 6-36 (-9.43, 14.3%)
ATS: 12-29-1 (-4.20, 29.3%) avg line: 5.2
O/U: 20-22-0 (-0.95, 47.6%) avg total: 199.6

I'm thinking Vegas (Pinnacle) is just going to react to money flow. If you and me and ten other people from this site bet $100 bucks apiece on these games, Vegas could care less. If everybody on the internet suddenly decides to tail you on these trends, then Vegas (or Pinnacle) might adjust the lines...

 

[JBsNuggets]

Yea, I guess that's a good point. So let me adjust my original question and pose it this way.

1) Do a significant amount of bettors know about trends like these? Do they bet them consistently for an entire season?
2) Is it reasonable to think trends like these will continue in the future or are they just random occurrences? I guess no one can really know the answer to that one, but if someone had experimented with this in the past I think their insight would be helpful.

The biggest trend by far was taking the Pistons Over after they came off a loss last year. Covered 71.4% I believe? I'll post more as I come across them.

And while I'm on the subject, I've been betting on NBA for 3 years (this will be my fourth season), and every year there seems to be a team who Vegas underrates for the duration of the season. Last year it was the Suns, year before that it was Washington and Denver? I wonder how often those roll over to the next season, or how you could identify early on who that team is going to be.

 

[JBsNuggets]

Also the Spurs trend has held true for the past 3 seasons, so the sample size shouldn't be an issue.

 

[pip2]

Also the Spurs trend has held true for the past 3 seasons, so the sample size shouldn't be an issue.

Maybe you are right about the Spurs. I wasn't attracted to that one at first because it seemed like every year that the Spurs got older could be the year where they started doing poorly in B2B situations. But maybe their success in B2B has more to do with the ongoing system Pop uses to give more minutes to some of the younger players on B2B days?

There seems to be a growing number of players exploring the questions you are asking. Have you ever seen this the thread called "NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL", on another forum? (Googling those words seems to work). This sports query language they have, along with a huge database of games, provide some tools to reach conclusions on the effectiveness of betting trends on a case by case basis.

I think for these guys, the best defense against a trend that is ending (as they all seem to eventually do), is flat rate betting of a low % of their bankroll, which gives them opportunity to jump off a trend when it stops being fruitful, before incurring heavy losses. But also these guys are working with lots of trends, and coming up with new ones all the time, like you have here (new to me anyway), and this is relevant because the sheer volume of trends could make it a little more difficult for the lines makers to stop up every little trend-leak in their system...

 

[JBsNuggets]

Maybe you are right about the Spurs. I wasn't attracted to that one at first because it seemed like every year that the Spurs got older could be the year where they started doing poorly in B2B situations. But maybe their success in B2B has more to do with the ongoing system Pop uses to give more minutes to some of the younger players on B2B days?

There seems to be a growing number of players exploring the questions you are asking. Have you ever seen this the thread called "NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL", on another forum? (Googling those words seems to work). This sports query language they have, along with a huge database of games, provide some tools to reach conclusions on the effectiveness of betting trends on a case by case basis.

I think for these guys, the best defense against a trend that is ending (as they all seem to eventually do), is flat rate betting of a low % of their bankroll, which gives them opportunity to jump off a trend when it stops being fruitful, before incurring heavy losses. But also these guys are working with lots of trends, and coming up with new ones all the time, like you have here (new to me anyway), and this is relevant because the sheer volume of trends could make it a little more difficult for the lines makers to stop up every little trend-leak in their system...

That is a very cool thread, and it looks like they did well for themselves last year from what I've read. Also a cool website they're using. I think if you can find a trend that actually makes sense, not just some arbitrary guidelines that have happened to pay off in the past you can count on it to continue. I also think if you pair that with a regular statistical analysis of a game, review the injuries/starters, and go through your normal handicapping routine among those games you can be profitable with this.

I think my plan is to keep exploring any ideas that come to mind, I'll post them on here to see what y'all think about the 'common sense' factor, circle them on my outlook calendar with notifications and play it that way. As long as you track the trends throughout the year and take them consistently I think it will work, not only providing fuel for bets you already like, but talking you off some potential losers as well.

 

[CASH]

Yea, I guess that's a good point. So let me adjust my original question and pose it this way.

1) Do a significant amount of bettors know about trends like these? Do they bet them consistently for an entire season?
2) Is it reasonable to think trends like these will continue in the future or are they just random occurrences? I guess no one can really know the answer to that one, but if someone had experimented with this in the past I think their insight would be helpful.

The biggest trend by far was taking the Pistons Over after they came off a loss last year. Covered 71.4% I believe? I'll post more as I come across them.

And while I'm on the subject, I've been betting on NBA for 3 years (this will be my fourth season), and every year there seems to be a team who Vegas underrates for the duration of the season. Last year it was the Suns, year before that it was Washington and Denver? I wonder how often those roll over to the next season, or how you could identify early on who that team is going to be.

how many of those came after the all star break

 

[pip2]

how many of those came after the all star break

It looks like the o/u for pistons after a loss was 21/7 before the break and 16/7 after the break

 

[JBsNuggets]

It looks like the o/u for pistons after a loss was 21/7 before the break and 16/7 after the break

22-8 73.3% Pre ASB
16-7 69.6% Post ASB

 

[pip2]

22-8 73.3% Pre ASB
16-7 69.6% Post ASB

But right off the bat, I don't know exactly how to use this information. Go back 1 season and look at Detroit's o/u's after a loss:

2012-13
O/U: 24-27-1 (-0.99, 47.1%)

So, given that this phenomenon doesn't seem to span years (and especially since Stan Van Gundy might be changing things around a lot thus year), maybe the best thing to do would be to just keep an eye out to see if the pattern starts repeating itself again...

 

[JBsNuggets]

I guess that was my question, trends that have worked over the past few seasons and aren't team specific (I would assume) are more reliable than team specific trends that only lasted for a single season. This one may continue, but I wouldn't be surprised if roster/coaching changes kill it.

 

[JBsNuggets]

However, over the past 4 seasons I'm showing DET at 57.4% over after a loss at 113-84. Maybe 2013 was the aberration.

 

[pip2]

However, over the past 4 seasons I'm showing DET at 57.4% over after a loss at 113-84. Maybe 2013 was the aberration.

Breaking it down, it looks like it went something like

2010-11: 56%
2011-12: 53%
2012-13: 47%
2013-14: 72.5%

2013-14 was so strong it lifted the entire 4-year average up. The key would be what was driving that? If it was the coach, for instance, then it's probably not going to continue. Or if it was Drummond and Monroe, for instance, then maybe it will...

 

[pip2]

Fade home dog on b2b after loss

This is what I'm getting for fading a home dog on a b2b after a loss (HD and season>2000 and p:L and rest=0)

since 2001:
SU: 178-372 (-4.85, 32.4%)
ATS: 243-298-9 (-0.16, 44.9%)

since 2007:
SU: 101-213 (-5.82, 32.2%)
ATS: 134-175-5 (-1.01, 43.4%)

Since 2010:
SU: 60-130 (-5.98, 31.6%)
ATS: 81-105-4 (-1.08, 43.5%)

now year by year since 2006-07:
2006-07:
SU: 9-25 (-5.38, 26.5%)
ATS: 14-20-0 (-1.31, 41.2%)

2007-08:
SU: 18-31 (-5.18, 36.7%)
ATS: 23-25-1 (-0.26, 47.9%)

2008-09:
SU: 15-22 (-4.81, 40.5%)
ATS: 15-22-0 (-0.50, 40.5%)

2009-10:
SU: 8-30 (-6.87, 21.1%)
ATS: 15-23-0 (-2.12, 39.5%)

2010-11:
SU: 16-33 (-4.39, 32.7%)
ATS: 24-24-1 (0.37, 50.0%)

2011-12:
SU: 23-35 (-4.66, 39.7%)
ATS: 28-29-1 (0.49, 49.1%)

2012-13:
SU: 15-26 (-6.22, 36.6%)
ATS: 17-23-1 (-1.84, 42.5%)

2013-14:
SU: 6-36 (-9.43, 14.3%)
ATS: 12-29-1 (-4.20, 29.3%)


Lastly, this one is from 2001 to 2009:
SU: 118-242 (-4.25, 32.8%)
ATS: 162-193-5 (0.32, 45.6%) avg line: 4.6

This trend just looks reasonably solid, long-lasting and dependable to me. The problem years are 2007-08 (48%), 2010-11(50%) and 2011-12 (49%), but even 2010-11 should only lose 2.4 units of flat-rate betting, while 2013-14 wins 15 units. I don't know if I am statistically correct in feeling this way, but the fact that the ATS percentages have dropped each of the last 3 years might mean that something is happening to make these lower percentage ATS outcomes more likely in the here and now.

 

[CASH]

But right off the bat, I don't know exactly how to use this information. Go back 1 season and look at Detroit's o/u's after a loss:

2012-13
O/U: 24-27-1 (-0.99, 47.1%)

So, given that this phenomenon doesn't seem to span years (and especially since Stan Van Gundy might be changing things around a lot thus year), maybe the best thing to do would be to just keep an eye out to see if the pattern starts repeating itself again...

The Josh Smith Factor

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Here's an oldie and it still has some success although you don't get many plays is when an Underdog wins SU and then plays the Next night and is an underdog again you play the favorite. Also haven't follow this one in a while wonder if there's anything to it and that's playing against the team playing the next night after playing at Denver. Another that was decent a while ago is playing against a team that won an over-time game the night before. As all trends I guess they have their low point and high point during the season and knowing when to follow and when to either go against or get off is key.

Good Luck this season. In the middle of charting scheduling and the Bulls have a pretty rough November schedule as for Back to Backs 4 in 5's and a long road trip.

 

[pip2]

Here's an oldie and it still has some success although you don't get many plays is when an Underdog wins SU and then plays the Next night and is an underdog again you play the favorite.

I don't know if I got this right or if there might be another piece to it?

D(og) and p(revious game) : D(og)W(on) and rest=0
SU: 315-788 (-6.72, 28.6%)
ATS: 534-556-13 (0.01, 49.0%) avg line: 6.


Looking at the results season by season there was one 3-year stretch that looked Better than the rest:
64 28-35-1 (-1.49, 44.4%) season = 2006
57 25-32-0 (-1.24, 43.9%) season = 2007
62 27-34-1 (-0.36, 44.3%) season = 2008


But not so good in mist of the other years...

 

[pip2]

Also haven't follow this one in a while wonder if there's anything to it and that's playing against the team playing the next night after playing at Denver.

the O/U was interesting:

po:team=Nuggets and rest=0

SU: 165-213 (-1.40, 43.7%)
ATS: 180-186-12 (0.24, 49.2%) avg line: 1.6
O/U: 162-210-6 (-1.97, 43.5%) avg total: 195.1

 

[pip2]

Another that was decent a while ago is playing against a team that won an over-time game the night before.

If I got this right, it looks good:
p:W and p : overtime>0 and rest=0

19 7-10-2 (-0.47, 41.2%) season = 2005
20 8-11-1 (-0.53, 42.1%) season = 2006
16 4-11-1 (-9.50, 26.7%) season = 2007
22 10-12-0 (-4.05, 45.5%) season = 2008
25 13-12-0 (0.90, 52.0%) season = 2009
13 8-5-0 (2.96, 61.5%) 3.2 season = 2010
17 7-10-0 (-1.76, 41.2%) season = 2011
15 7-8-0 (2.87, 46.7%) 2.3 season = 2012
20 5-15-0 (-3.83, 25.0%) season = 2013


Overall since 2005:
SU: 62-105 (-4.01, 37.1%)
ATS: 69-94-4 (-1.57, 42.3%) avg line: 2.4
O/U: 87-80-0 (0.69, 52.1%) avg total: 196.1

 

[Paulie The Vig]

So if I'm reading this right the under after playing at Denver is worth a look as well as the over-time angle. Thanks for your work. pip2

 

[pip2]

So if I'm reading this right the under after playing at Denver is worth a look as well as the over-time angle. Thanks for your work. pip2

No problem, Paulie. I added a change to the overtime query that (unfortunately) reduced the sample size, but also increased the win rate to around 63%:

p:W and p: overtime>0 and rest=0 and (WP>60 or o:WP<40) and season>2004

This just stipulates that the winning percentage of the team playing B2B has to be more than 60%, or the winning percentage of their opponent has to be less than 40%:


SU: 36-52 (-1.28, 40.9%)
ATS: 32-54-2 (-2.01, 37.2%)

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Thanks again and hope to see more of you in the NBA section or any section for that matter. Best of luck moving forward.

N.Orleans is suppose to be a play tonight and wish I put it out there sooner because the number has gotta away. I laid -2.5 up to 3.5/4 now but with pre-season it wouldn't surprise me if this comes back.

 

[CASH]

Paulie,

If you have some time:
could you run some stats on teams playing at Denver and Utah as the second leg of b2b nights?
I would be curious to see what the avg number of points for each half, as well as the point differential for the home vs away team..

thanks

 

[Paulie The Vig]

If I could I would cash more of a scheduling/Angle player and will also look to follow if I agree. The pass two years I've ended up on the plus side very small plus but a plus. I've become more of a recreational player the past few years or so.

 

[CASH]

my bad paulie, i should have asked JB's nuggets..forgot he started the thread.. my bad..

 

[pip2]

N.Orleans is suppose to be a play tonight and wish I put it out there sooner because the number has gotta away. I laid -2.5 up to 3.5/4 now but with pre-season it wouldn't surprise me if this comes back.

Nice tip Paulie! I better get some money into my book so I don't miss out on those!

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Nice tip Paulie! I better get some money into my book so I don't miss out on those!

Thanks pip2 it was easy money now if they can all be like that rayer

 

[JBsNuggets]

my bad paulie, i should have asked JB's nuggets..forgot he started the thread.. my bad..

Hey guys, been awhile since I checked the thread, I'll look into this tomorrow. Got my database saved on my work computer.

 

[zafzaf]

Even some obscure ones I've found:

-Road Favorite on a road trip 2 days or longer after a loss
-Fade a road dog on a B2B after a win
-Fade a Home dog on B2B after a loss

Has anyone found something like this and tried to apply it for a full season? Thanks for your opinions.

Here are the results according to BetLabs since the beginning of 2005
-Road Favorite on a road trip 2 days or longer after a loss / 415 W - 356 L 53,8% win rate and +39,7 unit if you risk 1 unit every game
-Fade a road dog on a B2B after a win / 617 W - 592 L 51% win rate and -7,7 unit if you risk 1 unit every game
-Fade a Home dog on B2B after a loss / 232 W - 188 L 55,2% win rate and +33,4 unit if you risk 1 unit every game

 

[Paulie The Vig]

[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Would someone have the data and time to back test this one. TIA[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

Play on NBA road favorites with two or more days rest if they are playing a conference opponent! The Over is also suppose to be good[/FONT]

 

[pip2]

Would someone have the data and time to back test this one. TIA

Play on NBA road favorites with two or more days rest if they are playing a conference opponent! The Over is also suppose to be good

Paulie, to me, when a team is playing the second of a B2B, they played 24 hours before, so they had 1 day of rest. But the system I use calls that situation 0 days of rest. So I'll give the results the system shows for A) 1 day of rest (or greater) and the results for B) 2 days of rest (or greater):

A)
AF and rest>=1 and conference=o:conference and season

154 88-62-4 (1.06, 58.7%) season = 2004
145 67-73-5 (-0.77, 47.9%) season = 2005
167 98-68-1 (0.01, 59.0%) season = 2006
166 88-74-4 (0.69, 54.3%) season = 2007
171 76-91-4 (-1.80, 45.5%) season = 2008
156 90-64-2 (1.71, 58.4%) season = 2009
165 86-78-1 (0.25, 52.4%) season = 2010
154 79-71-4 (0.13, 52.7%) season = 2011
169 94-75-0 (0.77, 55.6%) season = 2012
200 93-101-6 (-1.31, 47.9%) season = 2013


B)
AF and rest>=2 and conference=o:conference and season

49 27-22-0 (0.31, 55.1%) season = 2004
36 20-15-1 (-1.24, 57.1%) season = 2005
54 23-31-0 (-3.18, 42.6%) season = 2006
43 20-23-0 (-1.41, 46.5%) season = 2007
38 24-12-2 (3.84, 66.7%) season = 2008
44 28-16-0 (2.99, 63.6%) season = 2009
36 11-24-1 (-4.31, 31.4%) season = 2010
32 15-17-0 (0.02, 46.9%) season = 2011
29 19-10-0 (3.16, 65.5%) season = 2012
51 27-23-1 (1.07, 54.0%) season = 2013

 

[pip2]

Would someone have the data and time to back test this one. TIA

Play on NBA road favorites with two or more days rest if they are playing a conference opponent! The Over is also suppose to be good

Here are the o/u results:
A)
AF and rest>=1 and conference=o:conference and season
154 81-72-1 (2.80, 52.9%) season = 2004
145 71-73-1 (1.24, 49.3%) season = 2005
167 79-88-0 (-0.99, 47.3%) season = 2006
166 74-86-6 (-0.57, 46.2%) season = 2007
171 78-92-1 (0.14, 45.9%) season = 2008
156 68-86-2 (-2.19, 44.2%) season = 2009
165 74-91-0 (-3.12, 44.8%) season = 2010
154 74-80-0 (-0.75, 48.1%) season = 2011
169 81-84-4 (0.10, 49.1%) season = 2012
200 109-91-0 (2.58, 54.5%) season = 2013

B)
AF and rest>=2 and conference=o:conference and season

49 31-18-0 (5.18, 63.3%) season = 2004
36 18-17-1 (5.10, 51.4%) season = 2005
54 26-28-0 (-2.19, 48.1%) season = 2006
43 21-21-1 (3.24, 50.0%) season = 2007
38 17-21-0 (2.78, 44.7%) season = 2008
44 20-24-0 (0.20, 45.5%) season = 2009
36 19-17-0 (1.25, 52.8%) season = 2010
32 13-19-0 (-2.02, 40.6%) season = 2011
29 14-13-2 (-0.55, 51.9%) season = 2012
51 32-19-0 (5.08, 62.7%) season = 2013

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Thanks pip2 I see it's nothing to get all excited about. Thank You for your time.

 

[pip2]

The numbers get a little better if the last time the 2 teams played, the opponent won:

AF and rest>=1 and conference=o:conference and season>2007 and P:L and season

games ATS OU
36 17-17-2 (1.88, 50.0%) 18-18-0 (2.68, 50.0%) season = 2008
41 27-13-1 (2.27, 67.5%) 17-24-0 (-1.67, 41.5%) season = 2009
39 22-17-0 (0.97, 56.4%) 18-21-0 (-2.63, 46.2%) season = 2010
43 20-22-1 (-2.64, 47.6%) 22-21-0 (-0.65, 51.2%) season = 2011
41 25-16-0 (1.95, 61.0%) 19-21-1 (1.43, 47.5%) season = 2012
46 27-17-2 (1.74, 61.4%) 25-21-0 (2.25, 54.3%) season = 2013

 

[Paulie The Vig]

Thanks again pip2

 

[CASH]

Nice work pip!

a couple of thoughts with trends this year...
all star break is 7+days long
looking at schedules seems to be more games per week for teams because of the break=.. Less practice, short benches = tired legs, etc

 

[pip2]

Nice work pip!

a couple of thoughts with trends this year...
all star break is 7+days long
looking at schedules seems to be more games per week for teams because of the break=.. Less practice, short benches = tired legs, etc

Thanks cashman. Yes, I'm kind of thinking it should be a banner year for the Bet Crimes return-after-a-long-roadtrip list, or as I call it, the "BC Danger Zone" list...

 

[Paulie The Vig]

A friend asked this question maybe someone knows.

What about the Boston/New York trip? According to past results, the play is AGAINST any team in Game 2 if they won Game 1.

Is this still relevant?

Thanks in Advance for your time.